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Traffic Sim Predicts Jams Before They Happen
Via_Patrino writes "The New Scientist reports that: A traffic simulation system is helping drivers by predicting jams up to an hour before they happen. Traffic flow can be divided into three categories: freely flowing, jammed, and an intermediate state called synchronised flow in which dense traffic moves in unison. Physicists at University of Duisburg-Essen have developed 'the first model to reproduce all known traffic states.' Predicted conditions are displayed on the official website, and more than 90 per cent of the time, traffic density is predicted correctly."
But the system still wouldn't be able to predict traffic jams caused by accidents and cars breaking down, so it wouldn't be perfect. And if everyone reads when there will be a jam, no-one will drive then, and the traffic jam will be at a different time.
For those people concerned that releasing the predictions will interfere with the results, please remember that not many people will actually use this tool.
Both are fundamentally chaotic.
Sure, you can calculate expected probability based on past performances and expected flow... but we've all seen freeways humming right along at 70MPH and no problems until just ONE driver makes an error... then all hell breaks loose.
I don't think even predicting the weather is as tricky as predicting traffic flow, as at least the weather patterns follow known laws of physics for at least near-term before losing out to the chaotic nature of weather patterns. People are just flat out unpredictable.
"Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]
about it is the hard part. Changing behaviors is the most difficult thing to do. If people staggered the time they leave work and if they could tolerate a little bit of inconvenience of car pooling or riding a bus or train or subway then we might see the traffic ease up. Building more freeways and adding more lanes to existing freeways doesn't provide a lasting solution. Most people would reap the benefits of walking more to get mass-transportation and getting out of their cars more often. Of course there are the lucky ones that don't even need a car and can commute soley on public transit. Or just on foot.
I predict that traffic will get so bad and car ownership will become so expensive that people will figure out ways to get around without a car and possibly even change their lifestyle in the process. But it will happen gradually, I think it is already.
http://tinyurl.com/3t236
Because a single driver's illusion of getting there 30 seconds faster is far more important than keeping traffic flowing smoothly for everyone (including other similarly-deluded drivers).
Use the "effects" of the prediction to get the desired results. For example, if you want clear sailing on Route 9 going north at 4:00pm, predict bad traffic ahead of time.
If you want more predictable traffic patterns, fudge prediction differences downwards so that less people will take action based on the predictions.
It's all one big feedback loop, dampen accordingly.
The density of traffic would be lower because the traffic is flowing more smoothly, not because less cars are using the road. This is a good thing.
..and other 300,000 users in the "prediction" system at the same time: "hmm I-95 is gonna be jammed in one hour from now.I better go home a little bit earlier today." tada!! =D we have succesfully jammed the road with one hour in advance!! What an improvement! Thanks again modern physics!
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you and to hear the lamentations of their women.
you just described the problem of utilizing the intelligence gain from cracking WWII Nazi codes: if heard about a fleet of submarines and attack it, then they know you know the codes, so they change them...but if you do nothing, then what's the point of breaking the codes
sounds like a stock analyst's prediction.
"The price will go up", so people buy and the price goes up. "The price will do down", so people sell and the price goes down.
What people don't realize, is that if every stupid speed limit were obeyed, no lights jumped/ran, all stops made completely, traffic would be many times worse than it is.
Yeah traffic lights are stupid, I never pay attention to them, I just go whenever. It helps traffic flow.
Now, anyone who agrees with me, we can just take your license away right now, because you're obviously too immature to be on the road. And if any of you seriously want to reply to argue the merits of running red lights, just kill yourself now before you kill someone else.
Am I wrong or would carrying a piece of green or red transparent film help? That way red or green could look black/darker to you whilst letting the other colours through.
They are oblivious to the fact that for the one vehicle they let in, they are causing at least one other car behind them to have to slow down and potentially miss the next traffic signal. Or worse, the person they let in does something to aggrivate the situation further:
In each one of these cases, if the good samaritan had simply followed the rules of the road and maintained their right of way it would have been better for all. The few seconds of time saved by the benefactor is a fraction of the compounded delays of the people behind the samaritan.
What aggrivates me even further, is that driving schools preach that this kind of behavior is good and will help reduce the number of accidents. BULLSHIT. The rules of the road were designed to prevent accidents by increasing the predictability of events that occur on the road.
Don't get me wrong, there are times when you are compelled to give up your right of way or even blatantly break the rules in order to maintain your safety and that of others. Unfortunately, people have been taught by authority figures (driving schools, often as a condition of getting a ticket dismissed) that this should be a matter of practice. This is reinforced by the fact that if you sound your horn (as a safty warning of course :) at someone who suddenly decides to follow this advice, you are considered an asshole.
Unless it is to mitigate an unsafe situation, follow the rules of the road people!
Wrong answer: when something like an accident happens you need to slow down. In fact anytime you see flashing lights (cop car, tow truck whatever) you better slow down until you know what is going on and have figured out how/if it affects you.
Granted most people look at the wrong thing, but at least they are slowing down. You shouldn't be watching the emergency itself. You need to have a broader focus of how the operations might affect you!