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Traffic Sim Predicts Jams Before They Happen

Posted by simoniker on from the driving-in-your-jam-jar dept.

Via_Patrino writes "The New Scientist reports that: A traffic simulation system is helping drivers by predicting jams up to an hour before they happen. Traffic flow can be divided into three categories: freely flowing, jammed, and an intermediate state called synchronised flow in which dense traffic moves in unison. Physicists at University of Duisburg-Essen have developed 'the first model to reproduce all known traffic states.' Predicted conditions are displayed on the official website, and more than 90 per cent of the time, traffic density is predicted correctly."

8 of 218 comments (clear)

  1. What is the cause? by lachlan76 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    But the system still wouldn't be able to predict traffic jams caused by accidents and cars breaking down, so it wouldn't be perfect. And if everyone reads when there will be a jam, no-one will drive then, and the traffic jam will be at a different time.

    1. Re:What is the cause? by skraps · · Score: 5, Insightful
      And if everyone reads when there will be a jam, no-one will drive then, and the traffic jam will be at a different time.
      Presumably, this is a closed-loop system, with a short loop. The predictions are based on very recent, near real-time data. If the traffic is affected by people reading the predictions, then the predictions would adjust to compensate very quickly.
      --
      Karma: -2147483648 (Mostly affected by integer overflow)
  2. A note by pyth · · Score: 4, Insightful

    For those people concerned that releasing the predictions will interfere with the results, please remember that not many people will actually use this tool.

  3. Isn't this a statistical problem? by anubi · · Score: 3, Insightful
    It seems to me its nearly as impossible to predict a traffic jam as it is to predict stock prices.

    Both are fundamentally chaotic.

    Sure, you can calculate expected probability based on past performances and expected flow... but we've all seen freeways humming right along at 70MPH and no problems until just ONE driver makes an error... then all hell breaks loose.

    I don't think even predicting the weather is as tricky as predicting traffic flow, as at least the weather patterns follow known laws of physics for at least near-term before losing out to the chaotic nature of weather patterns. People are just flat out unpredictable.

    --
    "Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]

    1. Re:Isn't this a statistical problem? by ratsnapple+tea · · Score: 3, Insightful

      While you might not be able to predict which driver makes an error, you can say with near certainty that somebody is going to munge up the traffic flow. That's what you base your predictions on. Remember that chaos theory indicates that although the underlying systems may be chaotic, the emerging patterns can be predicted with a fair degree of accuracy.

  4. Predicting the traffic is easy doing something by Bob+Bitchen · · Score: 3, Insightful

    about it is the hard part. Changing behaviors is the most difficult thing to do. If people staggered the time they leave work and if they could tolerate a little bit of inconvenience of car pooling or riding a bus or train or subway then we might see the traffic ease up. Building more freeways and adding more lanes to existing freeways doesn't provide a lasting solution. Most people would reap the benefits of walking more to get mass-transportation and getting out of their cars more often. Of course there are the lucky ones that don't even need a car and can commute soley on public transit. Or just on foot.
    I predict that traffic will get so bad and car ownership will become so expensive that people will figure out ways to get around without a car and possibly even change their lifestyle in the process. But it will happen gradually, I think it is already.

    --
    http://tinyurl.com/3t236
  5. They just need to take this into account... by ebyrob · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Use the "effects" of the prediction to get the desired results. For example, if you want clear sailing on Route 9 going north at 4:00pm, predict bad traffic ahead of time.

    If you want more predictable traffic patterns, fudge prediction differences downwards so that less people will take action based on the predictions.

    It's all one big feedback loop, dampen accordingly.

  6. Re:Synchronized flow isn't stable by jrumney · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The density of traffic would be lower because the traffic is flowing more smoothly, not because less cars are using the road. This is a good thing.