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The New York Times On Earth's Magnetic Flip-Flop
TolkiEinstein writes "The New York Times reports that, relatively speaking, compasses may soon point South. It's long been known that Earth flips magnetically every half-million years or so, and, with the north pole's magnetic field at about 10-15 percent [less than] its strength of 150 years ago, many geologists feel a flip is coming up. Computer simulations also suggest that the current state of the magnetic field is indicative of an upcoming flip. Though it would take hundreds of years to complete, the impact on life may be significant but not catastrophic, including phenomena such as power-outages, satellite malfunctions and disruptions in the rhythmic functions of some animals such as loggerhead turtles. The EU plans to launch a trio of satellites in 2009 to assume polar orbits & monitor the field." (Cross your fingers for some nice solar wind.) Update: 07/13 17:02 GMT by T : Note: the summary here originally misstated the Times' article; the field 's strength has decreased 10-15 percent, rather than to 10-15 percent.
And, since the magnetic field will be weakened, there'll be a supposed worldwide 24/7 aurora. Now that's kewl.
Candy-Coated Knowledge
They talked about global cancer rates rising from the years of diminished radiation protection. They also showed how during the transition period the magnetic "poles" will travel randomly around the globe, making random locations radiation hot spots.
Could they have possibly picked a more random animal for that example?
For some reason this made me curious about turtles & magnetism- a little research turned up this guy's page about turtle migration at UNC.
It includes this gem:
To determine how turtles respond to magnetic fields that exist in different parts of the ocean or to magnetic field elements (such as inclination and intensity) that they encounter while migrating, each hatchling was placed into a nylon-Lycra harness as shown below. [empaphis mine]
Image is here
As a Physicist I can tell you that that is exactly like science works and that it has worked well for centuries.
There is a method that, when put bluntly, is like this: "If you put forward an extraordinary, off-mainstream hypothesis you've better a) come from a respectable university/research group, b) show some extraordinary, easily reproducible evidence for it too and c) get ready for some serious ad hominem bashing, ridicule and possibly loss of funds". It all comes with the territory.
I'm glad popular science mags like SA adhere to this standard.
The owls are not what they seem
Wow... I remember seeing a show in discovery about carrier pigeons using the magnetic pole to navigate... (or at least that was the theory)... How will this affect migratory birds at large?
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You'd get them everywhere. You only get them at the poles because the field shields the rest of the planet. During the period of largely no magnetic field of any significant organization (the 2000-8000 year "flipping" time people have commented on), you'd get them almost every night everywhere.
Interestingly, although I can't find a link to it, I've seen estimates that the added solar radiation (NOT UV, so sunblock won't help) will cause 100,000 additional cases of cancer a year, but likely less than 5,000 additional deaths based on current cure rates. Given the increase in cancer treatment technology, the end result could be gorgeous nights and no signficant health impact on the developed world, and gorgeous nights and another health issue to raise money for, for the developing world.
I'd personally worry more about a climatic flip to an ice age than a dramatic weakening/flip of the magnetic field. Its hard to grow food for ten billion people on half the land, after all.
And how, exactly, is that helping science?
The peer-review-process is badly broken. It only promotes ordodox science and the funding of already established old man.
Currently it takes two generations to accept a paradigm shift, to accept off-mainstream theories as better approximations of Reality.
Think were we could be if science would move forward much faster...
The problem is no one has found a better alternative. If you take out all the conservative peer-review, then all kinds of kooks start getting publicity & funding. Think cargo cult stuff.
Truth has a formidable way of eventually winning: it is the truth. No matter how derided were the people who proposed plate techtonics or quantum physics, it eventually won out because it worked better than anything else. If a result is reproducible then someone will reproduce it and confirm it. It doesn't then matter what high-ranked people in various department thought of the idea.
This means that to be a successful scientist, you not only need to be creative, smart, inventive, patient and persistent, you also need to have balls of steel and a will of iron and prepare for the worst of injustice. Not only that, but when they do succeed after a hard slog, they often become the highly-ranked people who deride other people's ideas.
A proper supervisor tells their student about all this during their PhDs. You soon find out if you are fit for the job.