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The New York Times On Earth's Magnetic Flip-Flop
TolkiEinstein writes "The New York Times reports that, relatively speaking, compasses may soon point South. It's long been known that Earth flips magnetically every half-million years or so, and, with the north pole's magnetic field at about 10-15 percent [less than] its strength of 150 years ago, many geologists feel a flip is coming up. Computer simulations also suggest that the current state of the magnetic field is indicative of an upcoming flip. Though it would take hundreds of years to complete, the impact on life may be significant but not catastrophic, including phenomena such as power-outages, satellite malfunctions and disruptions in the rhythmic functions of some animals such as loggerhead turtles. The EU plans to launch a trio of satellites in 2009 to assume polar orbits & monitor the field." (Cross your fingers for some nice solar wind.) Update: 07/13 17:02 GMT by T : Note: the summary here originally misstated the Times' article; the field 's strength has decreased 10-15 percent, rather than to 10-15 percent.
I'm sure this is Bush's fault, somehow, according to the left. I'm waiting for Peter Jennings to blame this one on Bush.
And, since the magnetic field will be weakened, there'll be a supposed worldwide 24/7 aurora. Now that's kewl.
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Could they have possibly picked a more random animal for that example?
And won't someone please think of the turtles?!?!?!?!?!
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Dr. Evil has launched several satellites to orbit the polls to harness the energy of the magnetic flop and create a death ray capable of destroying mankind.
All to extort the wealthiest nations on the planet for...one MILLION dollars.
The preceding message was based on actual events. Only the names, locations and events have been changed.
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I had my homework al done, but the magnetic poles flipped and wiped my harddrive...
What if we all donated spare refrigerator magnets, magnets from old hard disks, etc. and carefully arranged them at the north and south poles. These giant piles would hold the poles in place. Perhaps a lucky chain letter spam from Bill Gates would help get people to donate magnets to the cause.
Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do.
It has to be pointed out that there is a significant difference between "The field's strength has waned 10 to 15 percent." which is what the article says; and "the north pole's magnetic field at about 10-15 percent it's strength of 150 years ago" which is what Timothy says. The former means that the field strength is still 85 to 90 percent of the original value (still nearly intact), while the latter means that it is only 10-15 percent of that value (nearly gone). This distiction not insignificant. That being said, it's still neat to follow (even though I don't think that I'll be around at the end).
The seasons are such because of the earth's tilt, rather than any magnetic effects.
If you have kde run kworldwatch in speeded up mode to watch the sunlight distribution.
It will be hilarous if the poles flip about the time the Mayan calendar ends, hopefully it will go as gracefully as scientists have predicted.
Unlikely, since a full flip takes a few hundred years; it is not a sudden, catastrophic effect.
As The southern hemisphere has its winter during our summer, I am wondering if the seasons will flip flop as well ???
Unlikely, since the seasons are defined by the orientation of the Earth's rotation axis to its Solar orbital axis; they have nothing whatsoever to do with the magnetic axis.
I also wonder if the polar shift will effect magma flows ...
Unlikely; the fields are far to weak, and get even weaker during a field reversal.
I wonder if the magnetic field has any effect on plate tectonics too .
Unlikely, for the reasons I give above.
Tubal-Cain smokes the white owl.
From the poster's text:
"and, with the north pole's magnetic field at about 10-15 percent it's strength of 150 years ago"
From the article itself:
"The field's strength has waned 10 to 15 percent, and the deterioration has accelerated of late"
Those two quotes are not the same. The poster's lack of attention to detail has turned the articles 10 to 15 percent reduction (a relative value) into a 10 to 15 percent strength (an absolute value). The meaning is totally different, and the poster should apologize for spreading mis-information.
They talked about global cancer rates rising from the years of diminished radiation protection. They also showed how during the transition period the magnetic "poles" will travel randomly around the globe, making random locations radiation hot spots.
This would be good for Australia. No longer "down under" ... finally "on top".
I had heard about this theory, but never believed it. Then I saw a Nova show on PBS called Magnetic Storm. It's very well made and very interesting. By the end of the show, I believed the poles are set to reverse and it's just a fact of nature. Nothing we can do about it except research and prepare our way of life so things don't go to Hell in a handbasket.
But why is the rum gone?
Then real fun with the flipping of the magnetic field is not that it moves uniformly from one pole to another over time, but that as it breaks down, tens or hundreds of "north" and "south" poles can develop which are spread all over the planet - see this article in New Scientist. With any luck, maybe my house might end up at one of these new "North Poles" for a while, so at least I can say I've been there :-)
It's too late for me to die young
I blame it on too many people walking around wearing tin foil hats.
I'm a geologist and can tell you there has never been an extinction event associated with or correlated to a magnetic reversal. These are common events that have taken place quite a few times since life arose on this planet.
For whatever reason everything will turn out ok. That being said, they didn't have computers and power grids back then.
"After careful consultation with my administration's junk scientists, we have expanded our Axis of Evil to include the earth's axis as well. This rogue, um, thingy is responsible for the destruction of...does this thing say turtles? But...we don't care about...oh...anyway, this rogue "magnetic thingy" can only be stopped by drilling in the Alaskan oil reserves, therefore stopping all magnetism from happening. These weapons of magnetic disruption must be stopped at all costs."
I'm not a geologist, but don't things on this scale happen very slowly? You wouldn't go to sleep one night with your compass pointing north and suddenly have it point south when you woke up. This would happen gradually over hundreds or thousands of years. Although this is geologically overnight, the magnetic pole wouldn't move significantly during a person's, or turtle's, lifetime.
Having said that, I doubt even the turtles that rely on the field for navigation would notice. They would adapt to sense the less powerful field over time or they would loose the need to use it. Navigation is done by point of reference. And since the navigational lines of force are moving so slowly, the turtles wouldn't care. The North Pole being 200 miles from where it was for the turtle's great grandparents really doesn't matter to today's turtle. He just wants to get back to where he started from a year or so ago. The shift should be slow enough for him to do this.
The reduced magnetic field seems to be much more of a concern. But, again, we will adapt much like the turtles will. But instead of adapting our biology, we'll adapt our technology. It's not that we can't make a satellite or power grid that can handle solar wind and storms; it's just that we haven't done it. Why not? We haven't needed to. Think of the reduced magnetic field as job security.
Has anyone thought of his relocation???
While the article does little to posit the consequences of these competing theories, it does provide a good deal of insight as to why and when the changes occur. It does conclude, however, that "many investigators believe that the trend [magnetic pole weakening] will not continue and the field will regain its strength, as it has many times in the past."
As a Physicist I can tell you that that is exactly like science works and that it has worked well for centuries.
There is a method that, when put bluntly, is like this: "If you put forward an extraordinary, off-mainstream hypothesis you've better a) come from a respectable university/research group, b) show some extraordinary, easily reproducible evidence for it too and c) get ready for some serious ad hominem bashing, ridicule and possibly loss of funds". It all comes with the territory.
I'm glad popular science mags like SA adhere to this standard.
The owls are not what they seem
There was a big "DO NOT PUSH" sign right next to the degauss button!
you laugh at them now, but they'll be the only ones protecting their brains when the magnetic poles stop protecting us from deadly radiation.
Wow... I remember seeing a show in discovery about carrier pigeons using the magnetic pole to navigate... (or at least that was the theory)... How will this affect migratory birds at large?
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I'm not a loggerhead turtle
Have you noticed how many foolish ideas have flourished in this supposed hotbead of intellegence this morning? According to the last poll responses, I'm guessing the average IQ is above 130 here (and well above most of your bosses).
Even if some posts are in jest, we've had folks questioning the results of a simple magnetic shift affecting the direction of the coreolis affect, (toilet flushes), tilt of the earth (seasons), loss of the atmosphere, and viability of all satellites in orbit.
Even if it happened over a couple years (which it doesn't), the only affect I've seen which is certain to happen is that the Government will be blamed for it.
Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
"I hope that when the Earth's magnetic fields flip and new north poles are created, that one happens to be at my house. That way, I can tell my kids that we live at the North Pole, and that Santa lives upstairs and really does see you when you're sleeping and know when you're awake."
Rule #1 -- Politics always trumps technology.
You'd get them everywhere. You only get them at the poles because the field shields the rest of the planet. During the period of largely no magnetic field of any significant organization (the 2000-8000 year "flipping" time people have commented on), you'd get them almost every night everywhere.
Interestingly, although I can't find a link to it, I've seen estimates that the added solar radiation (NOT UV, so sunblock won't help) will cause 100,000 additional cases of cancer a year, but likely less than 5,000 additional deaths based on current cure rates. Given the increase in cancer treatment technology, the end result could be gorgeous nights and no signficant health impact on the developed world, and gorgeous nights and another health issue to raise money for, for the developing world.
I'd personally worry more about a climatic flip to an ice age than a dramatic weakening/flip of the magnetic field. Its hard to grow food for ten billion people on half the land, after all.
So once the poles finish reversing, will I have to hack my GPS receiver and invert its display to make its compass point to the new "North" pole?
And will we have to switch around all the highway signs so that I-95 North heads towards Mexico and I-95 South leads to Canda?
And will we have to rename North and South Dakota, North and South Carolina, etc?
The hell with the loggerhead turtles, I've got serious questions that need to be answered! :-)
A marriage is always made up of two people who are prepared to swear that only the other one snores.
Same reason there are northern and southern hemisphere compasses except it's a needle balancing issue. In the northern hemisphere, the "north" end of the needle gets pulled down, and it gets pulled up in the southern hemisphere. There are global compasses that work by allowing you to readjust the balance or by using a gimbaled disk magnet.
Hero: "If that compass (mounted to the mountain) changes direction by 180 degrees, we're all going to blow up!"
Floozie: " But won't that take, like, hundreds of years."
Cue the "exciting music" Hero: "Can't you see, we only have a few hundred years to defuse the bomb!!!!! or everyone within 1 acre of this part of the mountain is doomed!!!.
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And how, exactly, is that helping science?
The peer-review-process is badly broken. It only promotes ordodox science and the funding of already established old man.
Currently it takes two generations to accept a paradigm shift, to accept off-mainstream theories as better approximations of Reality.
Think were we could be if science would move forward much faster...
And a whole lot of floppies and backup tapes erased...
I live in Soviet Canuckistan you insensitive clod!
The problem is no one has found a better alternative. If you take out all the conservative peer-review, then all kinds of kooks start getting publicity & funding. Think cargo cult stuff.
Truth has a formidable way of eventually winning: it is the truth. No matter how derided were the people who proposed plate techtonics or quantum physics, it eventually won out because it worked better than anything else. If a result is reproducible then someone will reproduce it and confirm it. It doesn't then matter what high-ranked people in various department thought of the idea.
This means that to be a successful scientist, you not only need to be creative, smart, inventive, patient and persistent, you also need to have balls of steel and a will of iron and prepare for the worst of injustice. Not only that, but when they do succeed after a hard slog, they often become the highly-ranked people who deride other people's ideas.
A proper supervisor tells their student about all this during their PhDs. You soon find out if you are fit for the job.
The magnetic field is a 'random process'. There is no real good statistical predictor of when the next reversal will happen.
Simple googling... shows it is
Mainly it occurs on high end monitors. And they have sophisticated means built in to combat it.
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You know, it was the first Bush administration that caused this by failing to insert large, autonomous dynamos into the earth's crust. This would have stabilized the magnetic shift by generating huge electromagnetic fields.
Likewise, by killing the Texan supercollider the government stopped all research into magnetic field movements. This research would not only have helped in our understanding of magnetic fields, but would also have helped in the current War on Terror by providing valuable information on how subatomic particles can affect semi-psychotic behaviors.
And by ignoring the Kyoto protocols, the US has selfishly allowed its atmosphere to heat up, no doubt affecting the internal stability of the Earth's iron core, making the situation worse.
Plus, clear-cut logging no doubt has caused rotational differentials across the US and the world (due to less air resistence), placing undue stress on the earth's core.
Lastly, by killing millions, if not billions, of creatures, modern civilization has hastened the onset of this problem by robbing the world of counterbalancing "life" or "female" energy, energy that would have counteracted the obviously "male" and "destructive" magnetic shift.