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NASA Urged to Reconsider Shuttle Mission to HST

LMCBoy writes "Space.com reports today that the National Academies of Science has released its recommendation to NASA on the future of the Hubble Space Telescope. They conclude that 'NASA should take no actions that would preclude a space shuttle servicing mission to the Hubble Space Telescope.' They also say that none of the safety requirements of the CAIB report preclude a manned servicing mission to HST." Read on for more.

"The NAS recommendation would reverse NASA's previous position that a shuttle repair mission is ruled out for safety reasons. In the wake of strong criticisms of this decision, NASA has also been considering a robotic repair mission. The robotic mission would not risk human lives, but it relies on a number of bleeding-edge technologies that would have to be deployed on a very short timescale. HST's remaining gyroscopes are not expected to last beyond 2007."

29 of 199 comments (clear)

  1. I hope they go ahead with this mission by britneys+9th+husband · · Score: 5, Insightful

    What a shame it would be to spend all that money putting Hubble up there and then not servicing it because of budget cuts. That would be like spending $20,000 on a new car and then deciding a few years later that you can't afford to take it in for an oil change. It's already up there, they might as well service it.

    --
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    1. Re:I hope they go ahead with this mission by adeyadey · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I believe that Hubble should probably be serviced, but the equation is pretty marginal, I think. If it wasnt for the fact that we (think we) have to go back up and fit retros anyway, (and that the upgrade CCDs etc have been built) I would be for just running it until it stopped working & putting the money into new scopes, maybe a 2nd UV/Visable capable one to join the JWT.

      Hubble is in the wrong place - it is inoperable for half the time, since the earth blocks its view as it orbits - much better to place it the Lagrange point like the JWT. Modern space scopes can have much bigger lightweight segmented mirrors - again like JWT. Hubble is also just plain old - all the bits are starting to wear out, take micrometeor hits, and so on. Manned repairs also make no sense whatsoever, at the current (stupid) shuttle mission costs.

      Hubble has of course been great sucess in many ways, but technology has moved on since the late 70's when it was concieved.

      Personally I wonder if it is even worth spending $300m+ just for a "safe deorbit" - its the old argument - ie: that money spent AIDS drugs for Africa would save many more lifes than are threatened by Hubble reentry..

      --
      "You lied to me! There is a Swansea!"
    2. Re:I hope they go ahead with this mission by amightywind · · Score: 4, Informative

      What a shame it would be to spend all that money putting Hubble up there and then not servicing it because of budget cuts. That would be like spending $20,000 on a new car and then deciding a few years later that you can't afford to take it in for an oil change. It's already up there, they might as well service it.

      Hubble is in the 14th year of a 10 year mission. The decision to service hubble is no different than deciding to put a new engine in an old car with 200,000 miles, with the added twist that there is a 1 in 50 chance that a 7 person crew would die doing it. The reason NASA O'Keefe has decided not to service Hubble with the shuttle is that it is judged to be unsafe given the Columbia review board's recommendations. Namely, the shuttle should have access to the safe haven of the ISS if it is to keep flying. This story adds nothing new to the debate. Hubble's replacement is on the way. Perhaps its leisurely schedule of the James Webb Telescope can be accelerated.

      --
      an ill wind that blows no good
    3. Re:I hope they go ahead with this mission by pohl · · Score: 5, Insightful
      It would be more like repairing that old 128k MacIntosh you bought back then.

      Yeah, it would be exactly like that if and only if computational power had not increased exponentially in the interim and only one such orbital Macintosh existed.

      --

      The "cue the foo posts in 3, 2, 1..." posts will commence with no subsequent foo posts in 3, 2, 1...

  2. Show me the money... by LostCluster · · Score: 5, Informative

    Safety concerns was the offical reason why they didn't want to service the Hubble, but this report most clearly is saying that's bunk.

    But what about the finacial concerns? I don't think NASA has the funding to allocate to a Hubble Repair mission... could the safety claims just have been a smokescreen to cover when the real reason was because they can't get the funding to do this?

    1. Re:Show me the money... by LMCBoy · · Score: 4, Insightful

      But what about the finacial concerns? I don't think NASA has the funding to allocate to a Hubble Repair mission...

      First of all, the instruments which were slated to go up have already been built, so you're looking at a substantial loss of investment if a servicing mission doesn't go.

      I heard an estimate of 1 billion USD today for the robotic mission. A manned shuttle mission would likely be comparable in price. However, even if they don't send a repair mission, a robotic mission to HST will still need to be sent, in order to attach rockets which can safely splash it down into the ocean. Otherwise, there's no way to control where it will come down. The cost of this robotic-splashdown mission is half the cost of the full robotic-servicing mission (500 million USD).

      It would be a shame to scrap HST because we didn't want to spend an extra $500 million to save it. That's almost exactly the average price of a single space shuttle mission. NASA's annual budget is $15 billion. It's not a lot of money, considering what we're getting for it.

      --
      Liberal (adj.): Free from bigotry; open to progress; tolerant of others.
    2. Re:Show me the money... by Almost-Retired · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I've already voiced my opinion to my representatives, in unambiguous terms. IMO its criminal to allow a national treasure like that to die for lack of a few million to service it.

      They've done it twice before, and I don't see any reason they couldn't do it again as long as the shuttle they use is equipt the same as the one they used twice before. That might take some extra funds doing the retrofit.

      Tell ya how to take a vote folks, have the irs add a 50 dollar checkoff line to the 1040, where 50 bucks of your refund would go instead to nasa.

      I'd bet nasa would hear a get off your butts and doit message loud and clear cause I know I'd sure do the checkmark.

      I use 2 of its deep field images, totalling about 70 megs, as backgrounds for 2 of my 8 screens. Everytime I switch to one of those screens I'm reminded of just how usefull that the hubble has been even if it was in need of a set of glasses to clear it up. The last one, showing stuff as far out as 13 billion light years, is a truely impressive image since we are seeing the universe as it was when it was less than a billion years old when that light was sent on its way here.

      Properly maintained, that scope can and will be making new discoveries, adding to our knowledge of the universe and physics in general, stuff that cannot be done thru the haze of our atmosphere here on the ground, a hundred years from now.

      I'd like to see them add an RPG powered ion engine to it, not a very big one of course, just enough to give it a few ounces of push so that its orbit could be maintained over an extended period as one of the things the shuttle must do each time its there is to give it a push to correct for the decaying orbit. That pushing we are told, over-extends the shuttles available fuel, possibly endangering the ability to steer at landing time. The shuttle that goes there must have the robot arm, and it must be stripped a bit in order to lighten it to even reach the hubbles altitude which is about 50 miles above the design envelope of the shuttle.

      But the point is, it CAN be done. Dangerous, maybe. But I don't recall that any of the crews who have been there regretted doing it.

      Cheers, Gene

  3. Re:Shame by kfg · · Score: 5, Funny

    Hasn't it discovered hundreds of new plants?

    No.

    KFG

  4. Why NASA bugs me by DrLudicrous · · Score: 5, Insightful
    NASA has been bugging me for years, ever since the days of Goldin and now O'Keefe. I believe that both of these head administrators have been overly prone to political pressure, and that Goldin's search for life on Mars has directed way too much money towards the endeavour of exploring Mars specifically for life, or what we think of as life. It's a modern day El Dorado as far as I am concerned for a variety of reasons, including ambient temperature, lack of magnetic field, lack of overwhelming evidence of large amounts of liquid to facilitate mixing of various organic molecules, depressed solar intensity due to distance from the sun, etc.

    And now what- we don't have the guts to fix Hubble? I think what this is really about is that we don't want to spend the money, that the head of NASA (O'Keefe is not even a scientist) is willing to bank on ground based telescopes under construction being able to fill in for what Hubble currently does (such as the almost burned observatory in Arizona). That is a dangerous, if not stupid, bet to be undertaking. Instead, we are going to throw our dollars at an improperly positioned space station that is doing trivial, not very important science and the search for life elsewhere in the solar system at a time when we are not technologically well equipped for such missions. We need to focus on near-Earth applications, going no further than the moon until we can bring down the costs and time needed to explore planets like Mars, Jupiter and Saturn for signs of life. I would rather obtain good astrophysics data than bad, inconclusive data about whether water existed in a crater on Mars many unspecified millions of years ago.

    1. Re:Why NASA bugs me by bobhagopian · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Oh, how misguided the parent is.

      First off, let me say that I'm an astrophysicist. I value "good astrophysics data" more than anyone else. I think Hubble should remain in a functional state, at least until a replacement (with detectors in more than just a couple frequency ranges) can be put into space. I also believe that going to the Moon right now is a waste of time and money.

      But, I will never say that about Mars. Three points:
      1. Whether or not you are happy with it, there is nothing wrong with doing something that gets the public excited about space exploration again. Sure, getting a man (or woman!) to walk on Mars has more engineering value than scientific value, but it will re-energize the population about the value of exploration. Can you think of a better time for astrophysical science than the 1960s?
      2. While we always prefer "good" data, we as a civilization would be selling ourselves short if we never tried to reach for the frontier. I think Kennedy said it best: "We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard..." Sure, it's hard to obtain conclusive data about the existence of life on Mars. But it needs to be done. The fact that it's hard is no reason to throw our hands up into the air. It's simply too important to be ignored.
      3. Despite occasional comments (and glimmers of hope) suggesting otherwise, the search for life on Mars is primarily focused on the existence of life in the past. Because most scientists now believe that life on Earth was carried over on meteorites from Mars, these studies are examining our very origins as a civilization. Even if life wasn't transported from Mars to Earth, discovering the abundance (or lack) of life on Mars will tell us a lot about how life develops in this and other solar systems. Now, honestly, which gets you more excited: smaller error bars on stellar luminosity data, or answering in some small way the mystery of where we came from? One of these makes astrophysicists like myself very happy, the other answers the collective questions of an entire species trying to understand who they are.

    2. Re:Why NASA bugs me by el-spectre · · Score: 4, Informative

      Whoa... since when are most scientists convinced that life likely came from Mars?

      It's possible, sure. Even proven that the planets have swapped rocks many times, but "most scientists" ?

      Personally, I'd find it quite spiffy if it turns out that life came from space originally... makes the mystery much more interesting.

      --
      "Faith: Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel." - A.B.
  5. So we're just supposed to give up? by Atario · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I could see them objecting to maintaining Hubble in favor of a better space telescope, or even "we haven't got enough money", but because there's a risk?

    Is the idea at NASA that we should just not try something because there's a risk? I mean, is this the same agency that put men on the moon eleven years after being formed? Should I just not go to work tomorrow because I could get run down crossing the street?

    What the hell happened to this country's can-do spirit?

    --
    "A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy." --Theodore Roosevelt
    1. Re:So we're just supposed to give up? by ravenspear · · Score: 5, Insightful

      What the hell happened to this country's can-do spirit?

      On 9/11 the terrorists succeeded in replacing it with "what can we do to best cover our ass."

  6. Make up your minds! by syousef · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If its on, give it the time and funding it deserves. If its off, don't waste resources on it. This to and fro nonsense just wastes money that could be used elsewhere and increases the risks if a mission does eventually go ahead.

    No one's willing to take risks or make a decision anymore. All we need is another damn shuttle disaster to slow everything down and have people screaming "its too dangerous to explore space - spend all your money down here".

    --
    These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer
  7. Re:Shame by brianvan · · Score: 5, Funny

    Yes, me too. I wholeheartedly support the future scientific discovery of cosmic shrubbery. /whoops

  8. Re:Funding (lack of) by Graymalkin · · Score: 4, Insightful

    NASA's means of funding is to blame in this situation. Big science telescopes like Hubble, Chandra, and Spitzer are one-off affairs. They get built and that is that. Hubble is an odd case because it has been serviced by the STS. The ISS on the other hand has to be constructed and launched, slowly. The contractors putting together ISS components make a lot of money billing the government.

    The Shuttle's design didn't originally include solid fuel rockets. This was later made a requirement as part of a compromise aimed at lowering the Shuttle's design and flight costs. The company that designed and built the SFRs was called Morton Thiokol, now called Cordant Technologies, which was based in Utah. Coincidentally this company had strong ties to the NASA's adminsitrator James Fletcher.

    Fletcher built up political support for the Shuttle by throwing some aerospace jobs to Utah. The first US politician to fly aboard the Shuttle was none other than Senator Jake Garn of Utah in April of 1985.

    This is the same reasoning behind many of the ISS decisions. NASA can't build something like the ISS without pretty hefty funding from Congress. In order to get funding they have to promise jobs and/or money to the constituencies of the legislators they're asking for money. NASA's administration also knows that if they promise individual companies contracts they can get them to make said legislators happy by writing them nice big campaign checks. Almost all government projects are based around this favor bartering system.

    Space telescopes aren't very lucrative contracts so it is hard to sell them to aerospace companies and Congress. The umpteen billion dollar ISS on the other hand is an easy sell as long as the construction can go as slowly as possible.

    --
    I'm a loner Dottie, a Rebel.
  9. NASA and Being Sexy by prichardson · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The problem with NASA is that it wants to be sexy rather than actually try and discover stuff. Looking for life on Mars is sexy. Looking into some obscure spectrum of something or other with a huge array of sensors located in Antarctica is not.

    Despite the fact that every time we try and use a new way to look at stuff (some obscure spectrum of something or other, for example) we find a lot out there, NASA stopped building an array of sensors in Antarctica (which son of George H Bush that put the pressure on them to do this is left as an exercise to the reader). The reason is that the populace seems to like sending stuff somewhere. Seeing more just isn't cool anymore. The Hubble telescope will fall into disrepair because people don't like looking at stuff. They insist on touching it. Even if that means the stuff is more than a few orders of magnitude closer.

    I guess I'll sum it up.
    Going to Mars with a robat that touches stuff and messes around: SEXY
    Looking at shit with a few big mirrors: NOT sexy

    --
    Help I'm a rock.
  10. Some actual costs from NASA ... by xmas2003 · · Score: 4, Informative
    To be more exact, according to the NASA Hubble site, it cost $1.5 Billion to build and put it up into orbit, and has an annual operating budget (including data analysis, etc.) of $230-250 million.

    And Hubble's second servicing mission cost $347 million plus another $448 million for the Shuttle flight - I believe that is in 1996 dollars.

    So as a taxpayer, for all that dough, how 'bout some new satellite pictures of my house! ;-)

    --
    Hulk SMASH Celiac Disease
    1. Re:Some actual costs from NASA ... by mangu · · Score: 4, Insightful
      something that cost $1 in 1996 would cost about $1.21 right now.


      Depends on exactly what you are buying. If it's gasoline, it'll cost more today. If it's a computer hard disk, it'll cost approximately the same. If it's a gigabyte of storage in a large system, it'll cost significantly less. The problem with inflation calculations is that "cost of living" isn't a very good reference index for things like space telescopes.


      This is a problem that everyone has to cope with when one considers upgrading a home computer. The machine you have right now may be almost worhtless, considering its capabilities and what the same capabilities would cost today. But you spent a lot for it a few years back. So we are always reluctant to trash or donate an old computer, but from the viewpoint of a cost/benefit analysis it might be the most rational thing to do.


      Of course, the cost of space missions hasn't gone down like computer hardware did, but still one wonders if a better and more advanced space telescope couldn't be built at the same price a maintenance mission to Hubble would cost.

    2. Re:Some actual costs from NASA ... by gilroy · · Score: 4, Informative
      Blockquoth the poster:

      Of course, the cost of space missions hasn't gone down like computer hardware did, but still one wonders if a better and more advanced space telescope couldn't be built at the same price a maintenance mission to Hubble would cost.

      Since most of the expense is in the launch -- and that would be comparable for a new satellite -- the answer is No. But more importantly, there is a replacement for the Hubble in the pipeline (the James Webb Telescope) but it is not scheduled for launch until 2011. Given the precariousness of NASA's launch capability, politicals will, and funding, one has to regard that as a soft date.

      Meanwhile, if they don't service Hubble, it will have to be de-orbited. (Note that even just deorbiting the thing will cost about $300 million, which is around 60% of the cost of the proposed service mission -- not counting any hypothetical replacement.) Unserviced, Hubble will fail in 2007 or 2008. That leaves at least 3 years where there will not be an orbiting telescope with the breadth and coverage afforded by Hubble.

      (What's three years? Well, for one thing, we might miss a supernova in the Milky Way. They should happen around once a century but none have been seen in the Milky Way since 1600 or so. It would be almost criminal to have such an event happen during a window when we couldn't observe it from orbit. We could have to wait another few centuries for the next chance.)
  11. NASAs' Short Sightedness by CodeBuster · · Score: 4, Insightful

    NASA did nearly the same thing towards the end of the Apollo program...They scrapped the last two lunar landings, even though ALL of the hardware was already built and ready to go, because they didn't want to staff the control room and fuel the rockets. It has been said that this was equivalent to crushing a brand new Rolls Royce which has never been driven simply because one does not want to pay for a tank of gas.

    The astronauts have already said that they are willing to accept the very reasonable level of risk to fly the mission and repair the Hubble. It is terribly ironic that one of the few worthwhile shuttle missions of the last decade is scrapped because something MIGHT go wrong. They seemed perfectly willing to risk human lives to fly loads of fairly useless experiments just a couple of years ago. Nobody would argue that the shuttle has lived up to the lofty promises that NASA administrators made to Congress in order to get the funding for all of this in the first place. The shuttle, despite that fact the shuttle itself is reusable, has cost billions more dollars than equivalent rocket missions would have. In fact, one of the main selling points of the shuttle, that it could carry 20 tons into low earth orbit, is moot because the shuttle almost never flies with the maximum payload for safety reasons. The decision not to save one of the best scientific investments ever made is a slap in the face after all of the money which NASA has sunk into the shuttle program. The Hubble Space telescope has added tremendously to our knowledge of the universe and inspired a generation of young scientists and engineers. If any further proof was needed of the impotence and wrong headed thinking at NASA then this is surely among the most damning pieces of evidence. Let us hope that they make the right decision before it is too late.

  12. NASA's "Safety Concerns" were a smokescreen. by node+3 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    During the proceedings (thanks C-SPAN!), it was quite evident that NASA was not giving a coherent reason for abandoning Hubble. NASA claimed that a mission to Hubble was unacceptably risky, while missions to ISS were not. The board pressed them on just how and why, and the increased risk seemed negligible for such a servicing mission.

    However NASA was excited about sending an unmanned robotic mission to service Hubble, and they claimed that there were companies working on proposals to provide that robot.

    My take was that this is the result of putting a non-scientist bean-counter (O'Keefe) in charge of NASA, coupled with an administration keen on cutting social funding while simultaneously funding private contractors as though there was no tomorrow.

    1. Re:NASA's "Safety Concerns" were a smokescreen. by BelugaParty · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I did not see the c-span coverage. However, I can see why the agency would be excited about servicing the telescope with robots. Mainly, because such an attempt would serve two purposes: it could fix hubble AND test out new technology. I can see both a cost benefit and scientific benefit to this solution. Whereas simply sending humans into spacewalk would be a waste.

    2. Re:NASA's "Safety Concerns" were a smokescreen. by node+3 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'd be excited about a robotic mission too ... if I believed it would work.

      The NASA guy (high up in the org) was really keen on the robot. He claimed to have seen "video" that was not (his words) "Power Point engineering".

      I'm highly skeptical of the robot idea, and here's why:

      NASA can afford to, and is capable of, repairing Hubble with a manned mission right now. The risk to the crew is negligibly greater than a mission to ISS, and NASA plans to send crews to ISS a-plenty.

      The risk to Hubble on a manned mission is fairly low. The risk to Hubble by entrusting it to an untested and today uninvented and yet-to-be-engineered robot is very high.

      I am *far* from convinced that cost and safety are rational reasons for the attitudes of being extremely against a manned mission to Hubble and being so emphatically enthusiastic on a robotic mission to Hubble. It doesn't add up. There are reasons I'm sure, but they *aren't* the officially stated reasons.

  13. Tea Kettle by Graymalkin · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The HST's data archive is currently about 12TB. That data lone is going to provide grounds for scientific papers well into the future. This data archive grows by about 2TB every year. That is a lot of data out of one instrument. There's a lot of good science left in that data. Letting that tremendous data source fall prematurly into the ocean because the HST was abandoned would be monumentally stupid.

    There's also quite a bit of money and resources already devoted to the HST. Instruments and components have been built and paid for and the work is already done. Letting it sit on a shelf indefinitely would be a magnificent waste. Besides the money already spent a mission will have to be sent up, automated or not, to de-orbit the HST.

    NASA ought to bite the bullet and push the envelope a little bit. It doesn't matter that they would be using untested technologies. Fixing the HST would be the test. I have little doubt that it would be feasible to robotically service the HST. A small cadre of tool laden AIBOs with rocket packs should be able to do the trick. If NASA is too scared to send people into space they could at least send a few cute robot dogs.

    The technology and techniques learned with the HST could be applied later with the ISS' construction or even an in-orbit repair of a Shuttle or other craft. Maybe we could even start designing satellites that are meant to be services by robots to extend their useful lifetimes. Companies would be much more likely to invest in satellites if its potential operational life of 20+ years instead of 12 if everything goes alright.

    --
    I'm a loner Dottie, a Rebel.
  14. Re:Happy to see this! by niktemadur · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I agree. Hubble has been able to take a licking and keep on ticking in superb fashion. Hubble is tried and true, so why scrap that old, faithful VW Beetle?

    Now for those that say that Earth-based telescopes (EBTs) can now do an equal job, I don't believe that for a minute. No two ways about it, once light hits the athmosphere, it is scattered and some of it is irrevocably lost.

    Here's another aspect that makes Hubble superior to EBTs: Hubble will never have a cloudy night.

    Hubble is perfect for working in tandem with EBTs. I'm thinking the Deep Field Proyect: Hubble gets the clear image, finds an intriguing gap, and Hawaii's Keck is called into action to zoom in as deep as it can on those coordinates. And then, voilá, the most distant object ever pictured makes itself apparent. The people operating Keck would not have known where to point if it wasn't for Hubble. This is just one example of how Hubble keeps astronomers thinking outside of the box.

    Also, any more servicing missions that Hubble gets from the Space Shuttle will only increase the know-how for future maintenance missions, as there is NOTHING that can replace on-the-job experience.

    For many reasons, including pretty pictures, I believe the only thing that could possibly replace Hubble is another Space Telescope, and that's not in the near horizon, so let's keep Hubble, what do you say?

    --
    Lil' Thindime, lilting a lacrimose lament, krashes the kwaint konfines of Kokonino Kounty
  15. [OT] Your sig by achurch · · Score: 4, Funny

    3.1415926535897932384629

    In case you're not aware: s/9$/6/

    And don't ask why I know that off the top of my head . . .

  16. Re:Shame by hcdejong · · Score: 4, Informative

    I suspect Hubble's CCD's can't really be compared to the ones in a digital camera.
    From that same page: "They can see objects that are 1,000 million times fainter than the naked eye can see. "
    For one thing, Hubble's cameras are cooled (can't find their temperature, but IIRC it's far below zero) to reduce noise. Also, the CCD design is bound to be different. This gives an idea of what's involved.

  17. They should just buy one Soyuz by Vitus+Wagner · · Score: 5, Interesting

    If NASA is not sure that shuttle can fly safely,
    they should by one Soyuz from us, Russians.

    Of course, Soyuz is technology of early 70'th,
    but it would be newly manufactured, when shuttles are PRODUCTION of eithties. It is also order of magnitude cheaper. We fly space tourishs to ISS for $20millions or so.