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Full Report On Holiday Game Crunch Released
Thanks to GameSpy for its article analyzing Banc Of America's in-depth report on videogame prospects for Christmas 2004. The report, previously referenced on Slashdot earlier this month, is now available for download [PDF link], and GameSpy explains the report "[isn't] trying to predict what the best games of the holiday are going to be. They're predicting what the best selling games are going to be, and which ones will meet expectations set by company leaders." The Banc analysts predict that Halo 2 "will be the second-best seller of the holiday season, just behind GTA: San Andreas", and suggest that certain titles, specifically "Bloodrayne 2, Terminator 3: The Redemption, The Red Star, 100 Bullets, Crash n' Burn, Predator: Concrete Jungle, and Shadow Hearts 2", should be moved beyond the holiday season entirely, to "avoid big-name products coming out on the same time-frame."
Seriously. First up, the article was on Gamespy, not GameSpot.
Secondly, Banc of America is an inventment advising company, not an actual Bank (though they do seem to be related to the actual Bank of America). It makes sense that _someone_ needs to investigate the trends in gaming so that the investors know when to buy or sell stock for Activision or whoever.
Interestingly enough, there seem to be no RPGs among any of The Big Ones, aside from KOTOR2, and that's still a maybe for the holidays.
Bloodrayne 2, Terminator 3: The Redemption, The Red Star, 100 Bullets, Crash n' Burn, Predator: Concrete Jungle, and Shadow Hearts 2
So basically, if your game is crap don't release when everyone else does. Makes sense. These games all look horrible even from this early on.
Although what I'm much more concerned about are the Prince of Persias and Beyond Good and Evils of this Christmas, like, for example, um, Prince of Persia 2 which is set for November. You'd think that Ubisoft would've learned after last year, but once againt hey're sticking POP2 smack dab in the week before the storm. Why? It's like throwing an olympian runner into a ring with 5 500 pound men and asking him to sumo wrestle. Prince of Persia 2 will be amazing, but there's no way it can hold its own against a GTA, Halo sequel, Half Life sequel, and KOTOR sequel. There are other top tier 300 pound titles as well, like Call to Duty for consoles, or the Sims go ebonic (Urbz), or a LOTR EA game, or Need For Speed Underground sequel. You know, titles people know about.
Ubisoft, if you're reading, give POP the space it needs. Throw it out mid January when the kiddies are trading in GTA:SA and Halo 2 after playing it 14 hours a day during their break. I promise: it'll do better.
It's not really a case of games == toys, in the sense that you are thinking. The sad facts are that consumers spend more money that time of year. They aren't just buying toys either. If you watch TV, you'll see more comericals by Best buy and circuit city for big TVs, DVD players, and the like. These big ticket items aren't going to kiddies.
You'll also see this in other industries as well. When do block buster movies come out? There is the summer time where they throw out popcorn flicks, and the winter holiday time when they throw out other movies hoping for big scores.
The facts are people throw around alot of money that time of year. People receive holiday bonuses and are generally out shopping. Companies want their products out there as fresh, hot, new games to intice people to buy them.
Joe average is walking around best buy looking for gifts. He'll snag some cds, maybe a few dvds and he'll wander by the video game section. If he knows someone likes games, he might look at whatever is on the new big flashy display, rather than dig through the shelves to browse.
Game companies don't put out games during the holidays for the hardcore gamer's dollar. They know they can get that year round, they do it for all the holiday impulse shopping.
The beast may feed its self to some extent, as you suggest. However, the basic fact still remains that christmas is one of the few times of the year when pretty much every consumer can be counted on to be spending money on non-essential crap.
While a video gaming consumer cannot be expected to drop 30-50 on every game they would want at that time of year, the consumer can be counted on to do that at least once.
You are half right though. A good game release in Feburary can exceed a good game released in December. But an excellent game will do better when released in December then it could in February. Gamers will pick up a good game any time of year. But casual gamers probably only buy once in a while, and December is one of those times.
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