Full Report On Holiday Game Crunch Released

Thanks to GameSpy for its article analyzing Banc Of America's in-depth report on videogame prospects for Christmas 2004. The report, previously referenced on Slashdot earlier this month, is now available for download [PDF link], and GameSpy explains the report "[isn't] trying to predict what the best games of the holiday are going to be. They're predicting what the best selling games are going to be, and which ones will meet expectations set by company leaders." The Banc analysts predict that Halo 2 "will be the second-best seller of the holiday season, just behind GTA: San Andreas", and suggest that certain titles, specifically "Bloodrayne 2, Terminator 3: The Redemption, The Red Star, 100 Bullets, Crash n' Burn, Predator: Concrete Jungle, and Shadow Hearts 2", should be moved beyond the holiday season entirely, to "avoid big-name products coming out on the same time-frame."

Comments

Release Dates and Indie Releases

[MiceHead]

The Banc analysts predict that Halo 2 "will be the second-best seller of the holiday season..." and suggest that certain titles should be moved beyond the holiday season entirely, to "avoid big-name products coming out on the same time-frame."

Release dates are always tricky, but I think there's a solution aside from Banc of America's proposed delay. Just as the concurrent releases (scroll down) of Batman, Lethal Weapon, and Indiana Jones crushed UHF, high-profile games such as Doom 3 have the potential to utterly destroy the smaller competition, such as our own title, scheduled for an August release. However, here are three ways we hope to avoid being eaten:

• Complementary Benefits - If the competition leaves something desirable out of their design, a developer can cater to that. Untold zillions of people (myself, included) have enjoyed a myriad of games in the first-person shooter genre. Many of these players would love to create their own levels and content, but lack the time or technical expertise to do this, even with the mod tools available. We want our offering to allow anyone adept enough to play our game to be able to create within it. I'm hoping that folks of all ages can play other FPSes, and still enjoy our game, for that reason.
• Consistency - From a marketing standpoint, the release of a small title is almost a non-event; rather, steady and consistent support causes awareness to gradually snowball. After all, most FPS fans know than Doom 3 will be released on 7/20/2004 (just kidding), but unless PGC and CWG suddenly do big pieces on indie developers, they won't be slapping us onto their covers. So, for us, it's a long-haul grassroots thing -- hopefully, this means that players will benefit from lots of fresh, new content over the next 12 months.
• Differentiation - This is where the consumer stands to win the most: developers can recognize saturation in a sub-genre and create products that evolve it. Or: to those who lament the current state of the myriad identical MMOGs, don't fret -- it's only a prelude to evolution! Our biggest example of this is the ability to create arenas. But we also apply it in small ways; whereas Doom 3 and Half Life 2 approach hyperrealism, we're trying for the oppsite effect. Aesthetics are not central to our game, but I hope players will consider it pretty enough -- and different enough -- to enjoy.

Reliance on the Big Launch seems like a losing proposition for all but the highest-profile titles. I'm banking on the slow, steady approach, which may end up with my being able to eat for another year, or my living in a cardboard box. I'll let you know in 2005.

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Inago Rage - Coming Summer 2004

Can Acclaim afford to finish or delay any games?

[TheLoneDanger]

Acclaim (with The Red Star and 100 bullets from the report) has been facing a number of difficulties, and is pretty damn close to being totally bankrupt. They are pretty screwed since they can't really afford to advertise much; they can't afford to have their titles be overshadowed at Christmas and they also can't afford to delay very long (if at all) either.

Which kind of sucks since The Red Star and 100 Bullets are pretty damn good comics. Still, I'd rather have Acclaim go under and not release bad games on licenses I like (hopefully selling the rights to a publisher that can make them into GOOD games) than have Acclaim do it's usual mediocre job.