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Why Wall Street Wants Google to Fail
Sam writes "The most anticipated initial public offering in years threatens to derail a cherished gravy train, where underpriced shares are handed out to favored investors and grateful CEOs."
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Okay, let's look at what Google has:
1. Lots of public information (stock charts, news and webpages primarily)
2. Lots of private information (what users are search/researching)
3. Lots of computer scientists and programmers good at working with lots of data
4. Tons of computer power
You combine these elements, and you have a group of people that might be able to make sense of some of the chaos in the financial markets. They could get RICH! Fear the Google.
Really, the IPO process is something that'll make a few people happy and a few people not so happy, and then will just plain be forgotten about. The differences between the dutch auction and the typical IPO process will matter in the days immediately after the stock comes out, but then will just fade into the background as the market determines the actual value of the stock through day-to-day trading activities.
.com's that ulitimately crashed and burned, but I don't think it'll have any effect on Google's stock in the long term. Most of us normal people invest in the stock market for the long term, and should in general wait for the post-IPO price to become stable before deciding on if we want in on a particular stock.
It's an "in your face" shot to the IPO industry that profited on the
Of course, if the reason is because then then Wall Street will ignore the stock and no institutions will recommend it, well, maybe that's a great reason not to do this. After all, it's not uncommon in other contexts to pay a 7% commission to someone who can get you a good price. I guess we'll have to wait and see whether not giving the Wall Street folk their usual vigorish is worth the risk.
Disclaimer: I work for a company, but I don't speak for them.
There was a recent slashdot article about predicting financial patterns. Google has the tools and personnel needed to pursue this if they wanted to....
I hardly consider Google a "one trick pony" given that they are hardly just a search engine.
As for branded graphics ads, every computer I touch gets a copy of Firefox, adblock (with my own block recipe), pop-up blocking and flashblock. Text ads still come through, which is fine with me, since they aren't annoying, gawdy or out of place.
"Investment bankers fear the "Dutch auction" IPO, if successful, could severely diminish their power and influence, and that has a lot of people on Wall Street worried and more than a little angry. In just about every interview they give, Wall Street sources are actively campaigning to undercut the IPO, warning the public that the stock will be overpriced, and instead of appreciating in value after the offering, will actually retreat."
Yeah, if there's anyone on the planet that i feel sorry for it's the investment bankers and their pissy little attitude b/c they aren't "in the loop" and google isn't bringing them into the "good ol' boys circle". Damn shame i tell you.
Note: not a chance in hell, i'll pay that much for google stock though. Not a chance.
Don't be stupid. "Don't Be Evil" doesn't instantly mean "Don't Be Smart". They know what they're capable of, and earning lots of cash is a pretty obvious thing.
With google's ubiquity in almost everyone's daily internet life, the potential for misconduct is staggering. The fact that they haven't abused their position yet makes me proud of the fact that i can afford exactly 1 share of their stock right now.
No..I think Linus made money on an overpriced stock. Most investors got burnt. Buying an overvalued stock just because we love google here on /. will result in the founders of google getting rich and you ending up with worthless stock. I personally don't have anything against the auction system or Linus making money from the VA linux IPO. Question is: would I buy google? No..And the fact that evil vested interests from Wall street are saying the same thing about google's valuation won't change my decision.
I can believe "do no evil" of Larry and Sergey, they are smart geeks who will make some well deserved wealthy without doing evil and still have some of their ideals in tact.
But, since it became clear Google was the last big pot of gold from the dot com boom I'm pretty confident Google has filled up with plenty of other people, mostly business people, who will do any evil, in a heart beat, to maximize the money they make out of the IPO. Maybe Larry and Sergey can fend them off or dilute them, but I imagine it depends on what percentage of shares they still hold and how much power they've given up in the march to Wall Street.
As soon as Google is on Wall Street and on the "make the quarterly numbers" tread mill I assure you they will probably also do just about any evil necessary, just look at Red Hat and VA.
@de_machina
Damn!
Than what have I been studying for the last 4 years?
Seriouslly: Economics *IS* a science. The only problem lies in the fact, that it is more of a social science (like sociology, philosophy) than a fact-based science (mathemathics, physics...). Saying economics is not a science is like saying pyhiatry is not a science.
Economics is a science that tries to determine how people will act based on the previous emphirical data. That's why you'll get 7 different answers if you ask 7 different economists for a forcast.
boky
This article shows how the press only has a one-month attention span. In 1999 people were writing nearly identical articles about Salon's auction IPO.
No, but the fact they use the scientific method does in fact make it a science. That should be the cornerstone defeinition of a science; does it use the scientific method.
Perhaps the problem in realizing it's a science for some people is how it's taught in high school and undergraduate classes. Just think back to your major/PhD/whatever. People just generally aren't sophisticated enough, or have the correct tools, or whatever to deal with learning the whole theory in HS or even undergrad. Thus, simplifications are made, and those theories are just put forward almost as axioms. Once you get to the fore, you see that it is indeed a science.
I know; I'm starting research in Economics as a PhD student now, and leaving out the details, I am looking at data, formulating a theory for how people behave, seeing if it fits the data I'm looking at, then looking at other data/situations to see if my theory predicts that data correctly. If that isn't science, I don't know what is (and I have spent time in Physics. Sure, the math is more complicated, but the process is no different).
Now, I'm talking about Economics, not all the other social sciences. I have a feeling it may be true there as well. But to continue to call Economics not a science is either ignorant or egotistical. But of course, there aren't big egos in the IT/Science community.
Oh, well, I do see the comments attacking the fact Economics is a science get +5, but the comments pointing out the fallacy are still stuck low. So, guess there is a little ego out there. One line attack gets +5 Informative, and a thought out rebuttal is stuck at 1 or 2. You should really try to be unbiased...