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AM Radio Waves May Be Harmful?

Klar writes "Wired News reports that: 'Korean scientists have found that regions near AM radio-broadcasting towers had 70 percent more leukemia deaths than those without.' The article continues: 'The study, to be published in an upcoming issue of the International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health, also found that cancer deaths were 29 percent higher near such transmitters.' While 'their study did not prove a direct link between cancer and the transmitters', the FDA and the World Health Organization are urging more studies, especially of radio waves from cell phones."

55 of 548 comments (clear)

  1. Incomplete testing by Lord+Grey · · Score: 5, Funny
    ... regions near AM radio-broadcasting towers had 70 percent more leukemia deaths than those without.
    ...
    ... also found that cancer deaths were 29 percent higher near such transmitters.
    ...
    ... California's Department of Health Services reviewed all the current studies of EMF risks from power lines, wiring and appliances in 2002. It found no conclusive evidence of harm. However, links to childhood leukemia, adult brain cancer and Lou Gehrig's disease could not be ruled out.
    Yes, but did they test for lethal amounts of dihydrogen monoxide? It would be irresponsible to not test for everything possible! Alarmists, take heed! Flee to the hills! Watch out for magnetism! Gravity is also especially harmful!
    --
    // Beyond Here Lie Dragons
    1. Re:Incomplete testing by cytoman · · Score: 3, Interesting
      That was funny!! You wrote about DHMO and Magnetism and Gravity, and you got "Insightful"!!!!

      ROFL

    2. Re:Incomplete testing by geomon · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Let's see:

      First it was microwave towers, then power lines, then cell phones.

      And every time, the National Academy of Sciences found NOTHING to warrant the claim of a causal link between elecromagnetics OF ANY FORM and cancer.

      --
      "Rocky Rococo, at your cervix!"
    3. Re:Incomplete testing by localman · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Why is it the replies to this stuff always fall into two camps:

      1) The sky is falling, we're doomed
      2) There is no way anything I find useful could be harmful

      How about a little balance, folks. There are plenty of times throughout history where something in widespread use was later found to be more dangerous than it was worth. Asbestos and DDT come to mind. Hell, some of the early scientists who worked with radioactive materials thought it was neat that they could warm their hands over it.

      The world is not doomed. Neither is the world a safe place. I hope they continue the research, take any findings with healthy skepticism, and then implement appropriate measures to improve our quality of life.

      An unrelated example: brain disease has tripled in the past two decades in most developed countries. But not in Japan. Aren't you curious as to why? Or would you rather stick your head in the sand and proudly proclaim everyone who is curious to be an alarmist?

      Cheers.

    4. Re:Incomplete testing by Mateito · · Score: 5, Informative

      or

      3. "But think of the children"

      I actually worked with a group doing mobile phone testing. We found that the radio waves penetrated very deeply into the skulls of children 12 years and younger. At the time it wasn't a problem because there were very few kids of this age with mobiles.

      As to whether it caused damage or not... no idea. We just did the physics.

    5. Re:Incomplete testing by fiannaFailMan · · Score: 4, Insightful
      That's a very insightful post. It reminds me of something I saw in the Lancashire mining museum some years ago when the employers were proclaiming the health benefits of inhaling coal-dust. Apparently it 'prevented TB.' I kid you not. It always takes a while for the harmful effects of new technology or its implementation to become clear.

      When I look around and see the sheer quantity of radiation that we're being bombarded with from mobile phones, mobile phone masts, power lines, terrestrial TV, digital TV, WiFi networks etc. plus the amount of carcinogens in exhaust fumes all around us it makes me wonder if it all adds up in some way that we're not yet aware of and if there's some connection with the number of people getting cancer. I fear that one day someone will do a study that will take into account ALL radiation sources and find that we've gotten a little carried away with the old spectrum.

      --
      Drill baby drill - on Mars
    6. Re:Incomplete testing by antiMStroll · · Score: 4, Insightful

      True, but look at the lead time between introdcution of a technology and discovery of its harmful side effects. AM on the other hand has been in common operation for a century, if it had anywhere near the impact of asbestos or DDT (still contended BTW) the correlation would be unambiguous after 100 years and it wouldn't be a Slashdot topic.

    7. Re:Incomplete testing by rseuhs · · Score: 3, Insightful
      In general, I agree.

      In this case, however, it's pretty obvious that it's complete alarmist nonsense.

      Leukemia and brain tumors are such rare diseases, that any statistic is not going to be representative (I've once read about a study that "proved" that churches cause brain tumors.) Even a single case can skew the whole study into one direction.

      Why don't they look at lung cancer? Prostate cancer? Breast cancer? Those are much more common.

      Of course I can tell you why: Because with not-so-rare diseases, it all evens out and there is no statistical link between disease and radio emitter any more.

    8. Re:Incomplete testing by YOU+LIKEWISE+FAIL+IT · · Score: 3, Insightful

      What makes the NAS's report so much better than Koreas? Are the International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health not peer reviewed or something?

      I hope you're not making the mistake of conflating a big name at the top of the paper with its validity. Science is about being open to new ideas, let's not slam the paper on the grounds of dogma without at least reviewing what it has to say.

      --
      One god, one market, one truth, one consumer.
    9. Re:Incomplete testing by EvilTwinSkippy · · Score: 4, Insightful
      Wifi signal: 100mW. (0.1 W)

      Cell phone signal: 4 W.

      Stepping outside under full sun: 1000 W.

      We are exposed to far greater amounts of EM radiation from the sun, in all sorts of unfilitered frequencies. And we have been since before man really groked that it rose every day and set every night.

      I might also add that radio operators have been using very high powered equipment for more than a century. There is only one nasty effect from working around microwaves: male sterility if you are dumb enough to stand in front of a microwave tower to keep warm. And the problem there isn't the EM radiation. It's the fact that male testes don't like heat.

      --
      "Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival."
      --Dr.W.Edwards Deming
    10. Re:Incomplete testing by EvilTwinSkippy · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Before you fly off the handle about DDT, it's never been a health hazard to humans, and follow studies of egg shell thinning found that the concentrations required to thin eggs that severely isn't found in nature.

      It turns out that lead, oil, and mercury were far more likely to have been the culprit. Each of those contaninates DID have a profound and immediate effect on the animals tested.

      Links

      --
      "Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival."
      --Dr.W.Edwards Deming
    11. Re:Incomplete testing by EvilTwinSkippy · · Score: 4, Insightful
      Some one beat you to it.

      To make a long story short: any link is statistically insignifigant. What elevated cancer risks were found couldn't rule out other causes from chemicals, lifestyles, or location.

      --
      "Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival."
      --Dr.W.Edwards Deming
    12. Re:Incomplete testing by SurgeonGeneral · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yeah, seven years ago it was salmon recovery, recently is has been global warming....

      Actually,

      about 7 years ago they found that the salmon were no longer spawnng because of fishing in Greenland where the most hearty and mature of the salmon go for the winter. Over fishing of these stock left only weaklings for the fems to mate with. You may make fun of it as alarmist, but the numbers dont lie. The drop from 1.5 million to half a million migrating salmon was enough to convince Greenland to stop salmon fishing altogether. at that time only 100,000 salmon were actually laying eggs. Very funny eh?

      Now they have found that the salmon spawns are now increasing in level and things may stabilize. That is, if Global Warming doesnt stop them.

      Your comment about warming indicates your age, your lack of historical knowledge, and lack of general education on the environment. Warming has been a public concern since the 50s when the first effects were felt, and when people started realizing the huge effects humans and their chemicals can have on the environment through books like Rachel Carson's Silent Spring, which concerns the pesticide DDT.

      But it has been on people's minds since the 1800s when entire cities would be choking to death on the thick black clouds of smoke that hung in the air, the temperature up several degrees due to the insulation of sunlight. You think L.A. is bad? You should read about the factory towns of the Industrial Revolution. but I have a feeling you dont do much reading anyway..

      --
      -- "Man is born free, and everywhere he is in chains." Jean Jacques Rousseau
    13. Re:Incomplete testing by taion · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yes, because, you know, all the excessive DDT use in developed countries was primarily to stop the dreaded malaria epidemics in the mid-20th century, which ended up claiming over 3.9 trillion American lives alone. Furthermore, as a direct consequence of Carson's book, DDT is never ever used in parts of Africa to combat the spread of malaria, and certainly hasn't been used to good effect there for that purpose, all while minimising the lack of ecological damage caused by the lack of improper and excessive application of DDT as a pesticide for the sake of agriculture.

      --

      ----------
      Floccinaucinihilipilification - the action or habit of judging something to be worthless
    14. Re:Incomplete testing by plover · · Score: 4, Informative
      The way I've looked at it is this:

      A handheld cellular phone emits a maximum of 600mW, but rarely does so in an urban setting. (Remotely mounted antennas are allowed to transmit up to 3W or 4W.) The power emitted is adjusted based upon the tower's reported reception strength. Not only does this conserve battery power, but it helps reduce congestion in the cell network by keeping your signal from straying into the next cell over.

      "But it's RF!" you say. So, what is it that RF does? It induces current, and mostly in a conductor the same length (or fraction of the length) as the wavelength of the signal. Now, the 350mm wavelength emitted by an 850mHz transmitter (300,000,000 m/s / 850,000,000Hz = 0.353 meters, or a half length of 0.167 meters (~6-1/2 inches) is actually pretty close to the width of the average skull, so we can assume that the skull will effectively absorb some of that energy. How much?

      Interesting ... A quick trip to Google found an Amateur Radio RF Safety Calculator and I entered the following values: 600mW, 2.2dBi gain antenna, 0.1 feet from antenna and 850 mHz, and it tells me that I'm not in the "safe zone" -- I need to be 0.22 feet from the antenna. According to the FCC, the maximum permissible exposure in a controlled area is 2.84 mw/cm^2, but the cell phone is exposing me to 8.5293 mw/cm^2.

      I may have to rethink my cell phone usage... :-(

      --
      John
    15. Re:Incomplete testing by plover · · Score: 3, Funny
      So now there's a "colon cancer and cell phone" linkage?

      I've decided I really don't want to know any more about Japanese lifestles than that...

      --
      John
  2. This is a conspiracy! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Although I can't decide if it's a liberal conspiracy against Rush Limbaugh, a government conspiracy against Art Bell, or a gay conspiracy against Dr. Laura. They want them off the air whoever they are!

    1. Re:This is a conspiracy! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      Actually, what happens is that when people listen to AM radio too much, they start opposing greater access to health care. With more power in the hands of the HMOs, more people end up getting cancer.

      Similarly, FM radio waves cause copyright laws to become more draconian, and the frequencies used for television broadcast have been shown to result in lower SAT scores in nearby areas.

  3. Looks like we were right... by baudilus · · Score: 4, Funny

    At my job we refer to our two way pagers as 'birth control.' We may have been right all along...

    1. Re:Looks like we were right... by freakmn · · Score: 3, Funny

      The guy wears it, and the girl runs away. Jokes are so much less funny when they need an explanation...

      --
      warning: This post is likely to contain gobs of dripping sarcasm. Consume at your own risk.
    2. Re:Looks like we were right... by dykofone · · Score: 3, Funny
      Kinda reminds me of what a friend told me when I mentioned an interest in climbing and rapelling off a transmitter tower:

      "When standing next to a high power microwave transmitter, the areas of the body with the highest water concentration begin boiling first: the eyes and the testicles"

      I don't want to climb those things anymore.

  4. AM Radio by nightsweat · · Score: 3, Funny
    It seems Ever Clear to me that the cause is the music. On the AM radio, AM radio

    We liked pop, we liked soul, we liked rock, but we never liked disco

    --

    the major advances in civilization are processes which all but wreck the societies in which they occur - A.N. White
  5. Wi-Fi? by caluml · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Wonder what this laptop, resting on my lap, cooking my legs with the battery, and my gonads with Wi-Fi is doing to me?

  6. Cell phones harmful? by dieman · · Score: 3, Insightful

    How is AM with their huge power and totally different band have anything to do with any of the PCS bands and their relative piddly power for health effects?

    --
    -- dieman - Scott Dier
  7. 50,000 watts by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I think there's a difference between living near a 50,000 watt transmitter and a ~1 watt cell phone.

    1. Re:50,000 watts by tao_of_biology · · Score: 4, Informative
      I'm no physicist, but that seems easy to figure out. If I'm totally wrong, I'm totally wrong.

      1) Assume a cell phone antenna is 1 inch away from your head.

      2) Assume a 50,000 watt AM transmitter

      3) Assume a 1 watt cell phone.

      4) We know radio energy diminishes from the source outward at 1/r^2.

      5) The square root of 50,000 is approx 224.

      So, the energy being pumped into your head by your cell phone is roughly equivalent to standing 224 times farther away from the AM transmitter than your cell phone is from your head (which is one inch).

      224 inches is around 19 feet. A 1 watt cell phone pumps more energy into your head than standing 20 feet away from a 50,000 watt AM transmitter.

      It pumps more energy into your head than standing 27 feet away from a 100,000 watt transmitter.

      --

      -- "A chicken is an egg's way of making another egg."

    2. Re:50,000 watts by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      What if that 1 watt cell phone is an inch away and that tower is say 100 ft? or maybe just shy of 19 ft?

      I mean, yeah, you don't deserve insightful, which demands I put on my pedantic hat *and* look like a kook. But seriously, "These are not the bad statistics you're looking for."

      How much energy does the sun deliver to say a in^2? Well it's a lot more than a cell phone or most in^2 not actually on radio towers where they're concerned. So the em-radiation probably isn't causing cancer. But it might be affecting the kinetics of cancer cells already present and floating around, helping them decide where to set up shop. But even then that would only apply to transmitters very near people, who were particularly sensitive to their effect through what amounts to bad luck.

      In this study they more likely discovered those near radio towers lived in old houses, didn't have a lot of money to spend on taking care of themselves, and close to copious amounts of smog. Wow, I wonder if radio towers cause self-inflicted gunshot wounds too?

    3. Re:50,000 watts by k4_pacific · · Score: 5, Informative

      /me Runs to the calculator...

      Well, the power spreads out at a rate proportional to the square of the radius. So, if your brain averages .10 m from the phone, then the power passing through it is roughly 8 watts / m^2. (Determining the cross-sectional area of a brain and computing actual power is left as an exercise for the reader.) A 50 kW AM transmitter achieves this density of power at a radius of about 22 meters. So, if the tower is more than 22 meters high, it is safer to stand directly under it than it is to talk on a cell phone.

      --
      Unknown host pong.
  8. There's at least one Nobel Prize... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ... in medicine, and one in physics, and probably one in chemistry, waiting for anyone who can demonstrate a possible mechanism of action for health effects of non-ionizing radiation at athermal levels.

    Let's see it happen. Personally, I think that if there were a smoking gun here, it would have been found at some point in the last hundred years. There have always been confounding factors in these alarmist studies. Always.

    1. Re:There's at least one Nobel Prize... by zCyl · · Score: 4, Interesting

      ... in medicine, and one in physics, and probably one in chemistry, waiting for anyone who can demonstrate a possible mechanism of action for health effects of non-ionizing radiation at athermal levels.

      I used to agree with you, but a number of studies recently have shown that under these radiation wavelengths, some membranes in the body pass some molecules when they would otherwise block them.

      Example here.

      It turns out it's insufficient to just consider heating effects and ionization effects, since lipid membranes are composed of dipolar molecules which can be subject to other electromagnetic effects.

  9. Quick! by NIK282000 · · Score: 3, Funny

    Every one, put on your tin foil hats!

    --
    Dear aunt, let's set so double the killer delete select all
  10. Re:Not true. by Martin+Blank · · Score: 4, Insightful

    When is Slashdot going to get "-1, Pointless Political Statement"?

    --
    You can never go home again... but I guess you can shop there.
  11. Hrm.. by pclminion · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Given that most AM transmitters tend to be in highly populated areas, it stands to reason that most people who live near AM transmitters live in highly populated areas.

    Thus, this study might just be showing that people who live in urban centers have higher a higher rate of certain cancers. Which isn't surprising in the least.

  12. Another loosey-goosey study by PapayaSF · · Score: 4, Insightful

    So "near" means "within two kilometers"? Given the inverse square law, isn't that close to meaningless? Someone two kilometers from a tower would get a small fraction of the exposure of someone 1/4 kilometer from it.

    There might be something going on, but the cause might be something else entirely: for instance, the best neighborhoods with the best health care tend not to be near radio towers.

    --
    Q: What does the "B." in Benoit B. Mandelbrot stand for? A: Benoit B. Mandelbrot
  13. To quote last night's Aqua Teen Hunger Force by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Frylock: "It's emitting radition."

    Shake: "Yeah, but like, you know, the good kind, right? Like how they find tumors and gave Spider-Man his powers and stuff."

    Frylock: "No Shake. The bad kind. The other kind. The kidney losing kind."

  14. Reduce risk by 50%... by cytoman · · Score: 4, Funny
    It is well known that
    The ionosphere bends signals best at night because the Sun is no longer ionizing the atmosphere then. That's why you pick up distant AM signals at night. An AM signal can hop all the way around the world at night, bending down from the ionosphere and reflecting back up from Earth: hopping in that fashion and ultimately going vast distances.

    and that tinfoil stops RF waves.

    To summarize,

    Higher density of RF waves at night

    Tinfoil blocks RF waves

    Putting these two together, we can conclude that wrapping your body in tinfoil when you sleep at night will reduce your risk of developing RF related complications by >50%:

  15. no news here. by Eric+Seppanen · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Repeat after me: correlation is not causation. Yes, people near power transmission towers and antennas get cancer more frequently. But poor people tend to live in the houses next to unsightly power lines or antennas. And poor people have higher cancer risk, because they tend to be exposed to more pollution and hazardous substances, live under higher stress, and are less likely to get proper health care. Besides, you get more radation from your cellphone.

    --
    314-15-9265
    1. Re:no news here. by Mateito · · Score: 5, Funny
      I'm so tired of apologists.

      Sorry

    2. Re:no news here. by RajivSLK · · Score: 3, Funny

      Additionally, the areas near towers are generally higher density and more urban, more polluted, have less green space for exercise, and contain more Macdonalds'. The population is educated to a lesser extent and are less health aware (they don't take as good care of themselves). They are more likely to smoke, eat fattening/unhealthy foods and visit the doctor less often.

      Never mind all that, it *must* be the AM radio. That being said we should look into this but without jumping to any conclusions.

  16. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  17. radio killed....... by Roskolnikov · · Score: 5, Funny

    the video star.

    --
    Unix, an obscure operating system developed by bored researchers in an attempt to get a better game playing experience.
  18. please explain a mechansim by bani · · Score: 3, Insightful

    for non ionizing radiation to cause cancer

    a nobel prize awaits if you figure it out

  19. AM transmitters live in swamps by wa1hco · · Score: 4, Insightful

    AM transmitter antennas work best when placed in locations with good ground conductivity...such as swamps and other low places. They also get placed near occupied areas (short range) and where the land doesn't cost much (like old industrial areas)

    Doesn't this sound like it might correlate with pollution enough to affect the results???

  20. Someone pointed this out already... by Dieppe · · Score: 4, Insightful
    But it's another case of misleading statisics.

    Perhaps the population who lives close to AM towers are lower class than those who don't live next to AM towers and as such smoke tobacco more or don't eat salads as much...

    Other factors could be contributing after all..

  21. Wi-fi, Bluetooth and cancer by otisg · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I wonder what Wi-fi will do to us, since all of us are going to be surrounded by it more and more. Here is what Google thinks about +wi-fi +cancer. And then there is Bluetooth...

    --
    Simpy
  22. just talk radio by dbs_sf · · Score: 3, Funny

    I've long felt that right-wing talk radio was harmful. It's nice to have scientific proof.

  23. you forgot the biggy by way2trivial · · Score: 3, Insightful
    --
    every day http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Random
  24. what part of "needs further study" dont' you get? by Qrlx · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Surprise surprise, all the highly rated posts say "those environmental wackos are at it again" and explain away the correlation with a variety of explanations that we are to accept as givens.

    Realize this: There will never be a study "proving" the ill effects of non-ionizing radiation. Why? Find me a control group. You can't, not on this planet. A hundred years ago, when a five watt radio signal broadcast from New York could be heard in Miami, you might have been able to perform this study then. But now we're inundated with non-ionizing radiation, and unless you build a Faraday cage into about ten thousand homes and collect data over twenty years, you will never get "pure" numbers.

    Why are you all so reluctant to even entertain the notion that non-ionizing radiation might create a health risk? Are you that in love with broadcast TV and Radio? Based on the attitudes I see here about the MPAA/RIAA, I find that hard to believe. So what is your explanation? A general love of all things electronic? The chance to pass down the mockery you got from the jocks onto the tree-hugging hippies?

    I simplly don't understand the attitude most of you put forward regarding this issue. It's reckless and driven by emotion.

    But don't worry, even if a study or three come out demonstrating a link between non-ionizing radiation and cancer risk, the EPA will sweep it under the rug when Infinity Broadcasting supresses the evidence under the Bush Administration's Data Quality Act.

    "What I don't know can't hurt me" is not a particularly effective survival mechanism. Who knows, maybe we should be buying stock in Reynolds this very minute.

  25. Something they need to check... by Black+Art · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The question I have is what was used to clear the brush under the antennas.

    The problem could be something other than the radiation, it could be the nasty chemicals used to keep the plants from taking over the tower.

    This has been found to be a problem with powerlines in some cases, it could be part of the problem here as well.

    The first thing that comes to mind is not always the real cause of the problem.

    --
    "Trademarks are the heraldry of the new feudalism."
  26. Epidemiologist's rule of thumb by Beryllium+Sphere(tm) · · Score: 5, Interesting

    When you have statistics as your only data and no matched control group, most of the correlations you can find will be coincidence or garbage.

    Epidemiologists use the heuristic that they start paying attention when one group has three or more times the risk of another group.
    >maybe we should be buying stock in Reynolds
    Smoking is a good example: the risk of lung cancer among smokers is about thirty times higher than among nonsmokers.

    >Find me a control group. You can't, not on this planet.
    That's what lab studies are for. You can shield one group of rats from RF and microwave a genetically identical group. You can start from conception and have useful results in a year.

    >Why are you all so reluctant to even entertain the notion that non-ionizing radiation might create a health risk?
    After a hundred years of experience and a zillion negative lab studies skepticism is indicated. I'm willing to be surprised but I don't expect to be.

  27. Get it over with by Deathlizard · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Honestly, I'm just waiting for this statement to come out of a Scientist. It would get it over with and wouldn't spend millions of Dollars.

    "If it is or uses either Electricy or a Chemical, and/or its not found in nature in any way, it will kill you slowly"

  28. Good math, messy physics by tcgroat · · Score: 3, Informative
    The trouble with the examples is that the spacing is too small for the point-source (1/r^2) model. The size of radiating antenna is significant compared to the separation. In RF jargon, you're in the "Near Field". The actual exposure (electric field strength and magnetic field strength) can be either higher or lower, depending on the current and voltage distribution in the antenna.

    In any case, the amount of power the human body absorbs from a 1500kHz AM signal is phenomenally small. The body is small compared to the signal wavelength (2m/200m=0.01 wavelength), which means it absorbs almost none of the radiated power. The only way it is likely to be a hazard is if you touch a conductor with considerable RF voltage on it. That could give you an RF burn.

  29. Re:what part of "needs further study" dont' you ge by Idarubicin · · Score: 3, Interesting
    But don't worry, even if a study or three come out demonstrating a link between non-ionizing radiation and cancer risk, the EPA will sweep it under the rug when Infinity Broadcasting supresses the evidence under the Bush Administration's Data Quality Act.

    Actually, a study or three demonstrating a statistically significant link between nonionizing radiation and cancer is exactly what I would expect, even in the absence of real harmful effects.

    This is epidemiology--hardcore statistics. When determining the risk associated with some factor, you can never be entirely certain that the effects you see are 'real', and not just due to random clustering. Toss a coin ten times--you'd expect to get heads five or so times, but occasionally (1 time in about a thousand) you'll see ten heads in a row.

    By making (generally reasonable) assumptions about the nature of the randomness in the data, scientists and epidemiologists tend to come up with one or more measures of how likely an apparent result is to be genuinely significant. Generally, a result is taken to be 'real' if there is less than a 5% chance that the result is the result of noise (a P value of less than 0.05). Alternately, a study may state an odds ratio and 95% confidence interval ("If you take drug foostatin you are 1.7 times more likely to have symptom bar (95% CI 1.4 to 1.95)") denoting that the relative risk is 95% likely to fall in the stated interval.

    Under those circumstances, if the scientists do everything correctly, and account for every possible confounding factor, and do all their math correctly...that still leaves as many as one study in every twenty potentially reaching the incorrect conclusion.

    The journal in question here--The International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health--isn't exactly a top-flight journal, either. I'm not at work at the moment so I can't check their archives, but their impact factor is fairly low. (Down to 0.924 in 2002, declining steadily since 1997.) Yes, impact factor is by no means the only criterion by which a journal should be judged--but Nature they are not. Unfortunately, the Wired article refers to an 'upcoming' paper, so I can't get at the publication cited.

    Looking at the other paper mentioned in the Wired article demonstrates that Wired can't be trusted to accurately report the findings of scientific papers, either. Wired says:

    Two years ago an Italian study found death rates from leukemia increased dramatically for residents living within two miles of Vatican Radio's powerful array of transmitters in Rome.

    The abstract of the original paper in the American Journal of Epidemiology says: (in part, emphasis added)

    ...In the 10-km area around the station, with 49,656 residents (in 1991), leukemia mortality among adults (aged >14 years; 40 cases) in 1987-1998 and childhood leukemia incidence (

    eight cases) in 1987-1999 were evaluated. The risk of childhood leukemia was higher than expected for the distance up to 6 km from the radio station (standardized incidence rate = 2.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.0, 4.1), and there was a significant decline in risk with increasing distance both for male mortality (p = 0.03) and for childhood leukemia (p = 0.036). The study has limitations because of the small number of cases and the lack of exposure data. Although the study adds evidence of an excess of leukemia in a population living near high-power radio transmitters, no causal implication can be drawn. There is still insufficient scientific knowledge, and new epidemiologic studies are needed to c

    --
    ~Idarubicin
  30. you can die from too much oxygen, too. by swschrad · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ever been to a US transmitter site? no? well, there are big yellow signs with a red triangle on them at the perimeter fence, saying that excessive amounts of RF energy found within the boundaries can be disruptive and may affect health. I forget what the radiative standard is, something on the order of a half millivolt per meter, at which the FCC requires these signs be posted.

    long-term transmitter engineers, like HV and VHV linemen, tend to have a lot of cancer deaths. but when I grew up around all these guys, they smoked like chimneys and cleaned tools with gasoline as well. they sprayed lots of pesticides. they changed transmitter tubes without wearing masks (beryllium ceramics used in the tubes can cause berylliosis with the tiniest breath of chips or dust.) amazing any of them got to retirement parties.

    also, notice how everybody says they need more studies when they publish a study. although "cell phones cause brain cancer, so fscking hang up and drive!" has been screamed from the treetops for 15 or so years, and "power lines cause childhood leukemia" has been around for 30 years, a funny thing happened on the way to publication. the only two large double-blind environmental studies to tackle these issues found no effect at all. none.

    the power of microwaves to cook food was discovered in alaska when microwave techs with candy bars in their shirt pockets found after adjusting the dishes that their pockets were full of melted chocolate sludge on a cold tundra work shift. it is well known that directed or exceptionally strong RF fields, such as would be found in the open transmitters of the 20s and 30s or on broadcast towers, will cause cataracts. so there are federal limitations on exposure now in broadcast, and you can't go up a tower while the buzzbox is lit unless it's a pennywhistle station with a few hundred watts.

    these are for the folks who are drowned in the beam, whose iPods wouldn't work and who, if equipped with pacemakers, cannot work the transmitter any more.

    joe average on the other side of the fence? no problem.

    another scare study, get fifty of them with good double-blind methodology and large enough controlled study groups to mean something statistically past four nines, and call me in the morning.

    --
    if this is supposed to be a new economy, how come they still want my old fashioned money?
  31. Re:what part of "needs further study" dont' you ge by Idarubicin · · Score: 3, Interesting
    But is statistics the only way? Can every ill health effect be demonstrated via the appropriate confidence interval and a large enough sample size? (Godel's Incompleteness Theorem?)

    Well, we're talking biochemistry here, so there's really no cause or need to invoke the Incompleteness Theorem.

    Further, no--it's not possible to demonstrate every ill health effect. A thought experiment, if you will...

    Consider the very rare but highly feared disease X, which affects one of every million people. Consider also potentially toxic compound Y. It is present in the drinking water of every person in Los Angeles (population approximately ten million), and nowhere else in the state.

    One would expect approximately ten cases of disease X in the city population, but there will be some deviation due to random clustering. One expects the number of cases to follow a Poisson distribution, giving a standard deviation of about three cases.

    Under those circumstances, there's a 95% chance that the number of cases observed in the city will fall between 5 and 15. To have any hope of discerning a risk associated with compound Y, you need to see more than fifteen cases. Realistically, you probably need to get out to about twenty cases observed before you can start saying anything about the 'dangers' of Y. In other words, for this compound and this population, if chemical Y increases your risk of disease X by less than about a factor of two, you're not going to be able to clearly see it.

    If Wired saw thirteen cases in LA, they'd say that compound Y causes a dramatic (thirty percent!) increase in disease X. If a scientist saw thirteen cases in LA, they'd say that's interesting, but easily attributable to noise.

    Clearly a jump from 4 to 8 leukemia cases means practically nothing -- statistically. But I don't think it's always good science, esp. when dealing in real-world non-controlled systems with intangible variables, to rely on statistical analysis as the impetus for public policy decisions.

    If there is sound evidence (good animal or at least biochemical models) that particular conditions are harmful, then by all means such evidence should be considered. Controlled trials in the laboratory are very useful for sorting out cause and effect. In the absence of demonstrated mechanisms for harm in the lab, epidemiological data are all that we have. If sound statistical analysis reveals a significant correlation--that cannot be reasonably explained by other means or attributed to confounding factors--then it may be a fair basis for policy decisions.

    I suppose the problem arises when one asks what constitutes a 'sound' analysis...and in some cases that's a difficult question.

    --
    ~Idarubicin