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How Well Do You Estimate?
A random UK blogger has published a quiz asking readers to estimate various numeric values which they may or may not have knowledge of; and has analyzed the resulting answers to determine how well people guess. The first part of the results looks at some specific questions, and the second part takes a look at the quiz overall.
Fascinating Read
Life is the leading cause of death in America.
Tony Benn is a Labour politician in the UK.
I actually just finished this book. It's an oldy but goody, and it should be required reading for the statistically challenged. (I.e, those subject to the whims of marketing droids)
Take it easy? I'll take it anyway I can get it . . .
google cache of second link http://216.239.39.104/search?q=cache:DB1CxyRtiNsJ: ex-parrot.com/~chris/wwwitter/20040903-but_i_wore_ the_juice.html+ex-parrot.com+/~chris/wwwitter/2004 0903-but_i_wore_the_juice.html&hl=en&start =1
Part 1
Part 2
Does nobody here on Slashdot even remember the Mythical Man Month any more? The section on estimation and back of the envelope calculations was quite enlightening.
Clearly you don't. That section is in Programming Pearls by Bentley, not the Mythical Man Month.
Yeah, I know everybody is after funny mods, but you don't "estimate" a future event, you predict it.
Estimation is making an educated guess at a quantity without scientifically measuring it, usually with some sort of observation.
"I reckon thats 8 inches long and 2 inches thick."
Prediction is using past experience to state that an event will happen.
Norman Cook's Ode to Sl
In other words, people really do know what they don't know, and approximately how well they don't know it. Of course, I didn't actually read the article, but I believe this to be a reasonably good summary of it.
What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
The text is white on white, so it's probably really secret.
I believe posters are recognized by their sig. So I made one.
This issue has been studied for many decades in order to help organizations minimize losses on bad bids. Courses are taught on this. I took something like this once. There was an exercise to estimate the number of beans in jar. People's guesses fell along a curve called the binnormal distribution. From this equation you can estimate the best price to offer versus other people's bids in order to ocassionally win and make money at it.
Not all black people are African American.
:)
Of course that is true. A black person in african is African African
Not all African-Americans are black.
False. At least by the people that define these things. I personally would consider a white person from Africa who now lives in the US as African American, but this is not how the US government defines it. From the census bureau it defines African American as:
Black or African American. A person having origins in any of the Black racial groups of Africa. It includes people who indicate their race as "Black, African Am., or Negro," or provide written entries such as African American, Afro American, Kenyan, Nigerian, or Haitian.
If you're need quick karma, do the following:
1. Post only to new discussions - those with less than 30 comments.
2. Do not reply to main story - instead reply to the first highly modded post.
3. Quote lots of facts or say something political (but keep it loosely on topic and don't use inflammatory statements or you'll get modded a troll).
4. Make your posts long. Long posts are always "Interesting". It's axiomatic.
This will probably get modded Offtopic but since I've got karma to burn and I know how to get it back - I don't think I really care.
I've made up my mind and now I've got to lie in it.