Slashdot Mirror
Successful Earthquake Prediction
An anonymous reader writes "Although a touch late, it appears that today's earthquake was successfully predicted by the Keilis-Borok team. (The prediction was covered previously on Slashdot.) Purists might argue that the gap between both distance and magnitude is too large to count in favor of the prediction, but this non-geologist is certainly impressed. Here's hoping they continue to receive funding."
Ummmmm...no.
This isn't a success. The earthquake today was on a completely different segment of the fault, and was significantly weaker than the prediction, not to mention over three weeks after the generous nine month time period.
Don't get me wrong, I like the research, they've had some surprising success in the past, and I hope they continue. But even by the generous error margins allowed for primitive earthquake predictions, they're wrong this time...and if you asked them I'm sure they'd say the same thing.
And yes, I am a geologist.
If God had had a computer it would have taken him 7 months to create the earth...if he even bothered to do it at all.
Let's see...
1) They predicted the earthquake would be in the 9 months between Jan 5 and Sept. 5. Despite the giant "margin of error," they were off by almost a month. A prediction should not span nine months and still be wrong.
2)They predicted a magnitude of 6.4 or greater: the earthquake was 6.0. Again, they were wrong.
3)They predicted it would be within a 12,440 sq. miles area of southern California that includes portions of the eastern Mojave Desert, Coachella Valley, Imperial Valley (San Bernardino, Riverside and Imperial Counties) and eastern San Diego County. It seems to me that the epicenter of today's quake was located north of the vast area in which they predicted the earthquake.
To me, this is nothing more than a coincidence. They were off on all three and the mere fact that it took place in the state should not be inferred that it was a valid prediction.
Regardless, methods get better all the time. I am not opposed to this particular prediction method, just a bit annoyed that the slashdot submitter believes it proves the model to be true.
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