Global Warming Expected to Intensify Hurricanes

DoraLives writes "Think this hurricane season was bad? Well according to the New York Times, a study was published online on Tuesday by The Journal of Climate indicating that warming ocean temperatures are going to make for stronger, wetter hurricanes in the coming years and decades. An abstract of the article concludes cheerfully enough that 'greenhouse gas-induced warming may lead to a gradually increasing risk in the occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms.' Oh joy."

Comments

Weather is complicated

[erick99]

Even the most complicated computer models for weather systems can only approach less than 5% of the actual variability and density of the atmosphere. Consider that most forecasts are less than 50% accurate at 48hrs+. I am not dismissing the research, far from it, I just don't think the models are there yet.

Re:Weather is complicated

[Aglassis]

You said "Even the most complicated computer models for weather systems can only approach less than 5% of the actual variability and density of the atmosphere. Consider that most forecasts are less than 50% accurate at 48hrs+. I am not dismissing the research, far from it, I just don't think the models are there yet."

The key point is that they are less than 50% accurate for short term forcasts. The same rule applies to psychology for diagnosing a single patient (meaning that it isn't always particularly effective).

This rule does not apply for large sums. Psychology, for example, is an extremely predictable science for sample sizes greater than 1000 or so. The same will apply to weather forcasts. And it makes complete sense since hurricanes are fueled by thermal energy. Increasing the overall thermal energy of the planet can only make them more probable.

Of course predicting when one will occur is very difficult.

Once again...

[Anonymous Coward]

I think that this, once again, shows the faliure of closed source.

If we had access to the source code for the weather module, we wouldn't have to wait for god to fix the bug, do some sort of mediocre quality control, and then release it after 6 months.

"Was bad"?

[Joao]

Just for the record, hurricane season lasts until the end of November.

Re:Nature's way...

[Zarks]

Prehaps this is nature's way of telling America, the worlds biggest polluter by far to take global warming seriously.

If this doesn't do it nothing will. It is the equivilant of being hit on the back of the head and not bothering to turn round to stop whatever hit you from hitting you again.

History

[Tiggan]

Or, we could quit trying to blame everything on "global warming" and realize that hurricane severity is cyclical. Florida's been due for a couple of years now.

Re:Kyoto

[MillionthMonkey]

Democrats blaming Bush in 5, 4, 3, 2 ...

(Kerry voted against the Kyoto agreement in the Senate in 1998)

You know, I've seen so many Republican talking points that come in the form of "Kerry voted against X", that turn out to be based on procedural details and similar bullshit. So I did some Googling and found this article from December 1997 (smothered in an avalanche of right wing blogs essentially parroting what you said).

In Kyoto, a leading Democratic member of the observer delegation agreed that the treaty was not acceptable to the Senate in its current form. "What we have here is not ratifiable in the Senate in my judgment," Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) said. According to aides in Washington, Kerry wanted Clinton to sign the deal but hold off submission of it until follow-on conferences scheduled for Bonn in June and Buenos Aires in November.

At those meetings, the next step in the process of designing an international strategy to combat global warming, international delegates will again discuss more active participation by developing countries, which was essentially removed from the pact during the final hours of deliberation in Kyoto because of objections from China and India.

U.S. opponents of a global warming pact, including the Republicans and major American industries, especially coal, oil, steel and electric power producers, have argued that a deal that requires industry in this country to go through the expensive process of significantly cutting emissions of greenhouse gases was unfair unless the same requirements applied to all nations.

In January 1998 the Senate voted 95-0 against Kyoto because the exemptions for developing countries were widely viewed as unfair.

Re:Forseen 18 years ago

[Anonymous Coward]

Earth's climate has been going through changes for millions of years. Why are we so vain to think that it will stop changing just because we like it the way it was?

Probably because the evidence clearly shows that the rate of change has been accelerating since the industrial revolution. But don't let the facts get in the way of your nice comfortable lifestyle.

Re:Nature's way...

[Thagg]

CO2 emissions will likely increase over the next few decades, unless the countries that produce the most CO2 will start taking drastic action. That means the US, and to some extent, Europe and China. The 1% figure is about right.

The ULEV vehicles you trash actually eliminate far worse greenhouse gases. Methane, for example, is 100x as potent a greenhouse gas as CO2, and the advanced catalysts do eliminate almost all the hydrocarbons (like methane) from the exhaust.

These hurricanes are really Nature's way of suggesting to Floridians that their vote really matters.

Thad

Re:Forseen 18 years ago

[Anonymous Coward]

Did your dad ever mention what caused enough global warming 11,000 years ago to cause the glaciers to receed? I know it wasn't my SUV. Maybe it had something to do with proto-republicans?

Hey num-nuts. There is a difference between 5 degree change over 100,000 years and 5 degree change of 10 years.

Re:Kyoto

[clone22]

Mod parent up. Kerry authored an ammendment to the bill:

KERRY (AND CHAFEE) AMENDMENT NO. 987 (Senate - July 24, 1997)

[Page: S8101] GPO's PDF

(Ordered to lie on the table.)

Mr. KERRY (for himself and Mr. Chafee) submitted an amendment intended to be proposed by them to the resolution (S. Res. 98) expressing the sense of the Senate regarding the conditions for the United States becoming a signatory to any international agreement on greenhouse gas emissions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; as follows:

On page 4, line 13, after `period,' insert the following:

`(ii) provides countries with incentives and flexibility in reducing emissions cost-effectively by using the market-oriented approaches of emissions budgets, emissions trading, and appropriate joint implementation with all Parties,

`(iii) includes credible compliance mechanisms, and

`(iv) provides appropriate recognition for countries that undertake emissions reductions prior to the start of the mandated reductions;'.

Re:Whoa : Florida has very little to worry about.

[Martin Blank]

Haiti was grazed by a tropical storm (not strong enough to be called a hurricane) and around 2000 people have died with another 100000 or so left homeless and starving

A lot of this has to do with the rampant deforestation in Haiti. Notice that the Dominican Republic, which is on the same island, did not suffer nearly as badly, as it still has much of its forest remaining. There's a picture where you can pretty clearly see the border of Haiti and the DR -- DR is green, and Haiti is not.