Slashdot Mirror
Campaigns Wary About October Surprise
Makoto916 writes "CNN.com has an article on how both campaigns are speculating on what the so called "October Surprise" is going to be. From the capture of Bin Laden, to the economy falling through the floor, just about everything is considered. "
Since image and perception on TV play such an important role in influencing many voters, the kinds of events extend beyond the economic and geopolitical.
An unguarded, unrehearsed moment, caught in the wrong light, for any candidate can be fatal to their chances for election.
Professional, well-trained actors stand the best chances under that kind of scrutiny.
"Provided by the management for your protection."
I'm not paranoid enough to believe that the US gov't is holding Mr. bin Laden at an undisclosed location, waiting for the right moment.
OTOH, I would have no problem in believing that the amount of forces dedicated to his capture has been stepped up in the last few weeks.
I find it impossible to believe that the we could capture Osama Bin Laden and keep it a secret for very long at all. News that big would definitely leak out.
I mean, I'm sure they've ramped up their efforts to capture the guy, but I'm not sure that it'd be politically expedient anyway. I mean, the Democrats have put forward so much (baseless) suspicion that, upon capture, many people might believe Bush was hiding Osama for later. Heck, some people thought that we were hiding Saddam in his little spider-hole.
My personal hypothesis: Osama is dead. He hasn't starred in any videos (it's always his "second in command"). Al-Qaeda just wants everyone to think he's alive, for morale purposes. We haven't found him yet because it's hard to find someone who doesn't have to eat, drink, breathe, or be guarded -- he could be buried anywhere.
[PowerPoint] is a tool for capitalist presentation
But I bet it'll be a new low in dirty politics.
The darkness... controls the music. The music... controls the soul.
I've considered this myself and I know many others have as well - without any outside impetus. During the Democratic and Republican National Conventions, many people speculated as to how the terrorist threat would play out. Terrorists want Bush in power. The reason for this is so simple that liberals and conservatives can agree. Every time that Bush attacks or threatens a predominantly Islamic country, extremists develop in the populations.
Bush's assault Afghanistan on generated massive "collateral damage" - that is, holes in civilians caused by US' guns. To some people, a 3/4 dead village can be a bit upsetting. It's no surprise that these people then rebel against the United States. They realize that Osama Bin Laden is leading the fight and join his rag-tag clan of militant jihadists.
Bush's invasion of Iraq has directly caused over 13,000 civilian deaths. If this is not enough to agitate a population into extremism, I do not know what is. Am I supposed to believe that "liberation" includes "the freedom of body from soul"? Iraqis have read US history, they know that when we crash a party we never leave. Seeing this trend, they fear an extended US led occupation in their own country. The result is a rebellion against the invader. This can manifest itself in many ways: roadside bombs, mortar attacks, and both domestic and overseas terrorism. Osama Bin Laden becomes their patron saint.
Osama Bin Laden wants Bush because Osama Bin Laden does not value human life. He does not care how many innocent deaths it takes to bring the ideals of radical Islam to the world. If Bush incites a World War in the Middle East, Bin Laden would exalt him. Osama's goal is to incite a religious war against western "infidels" and their tainted culture. These wars are giant recruiting posters for Bin Ladne.
If Bin Laden could vote in the US, he would vote Bush.
When Robert Kennedy was shot months before the 68 elections, the Dems scrambled to get another candidate (Humphrey) on the line, while the Reps launched a "Law and order" campaign that led their candidate (Nixon) to the White House with only an 0.7% advantage in the popular vote.
So my own guess for the October Surprise 2004 is that Kerry gets shot, Bush gets re-appointed, SNAFU all over.
Maybe we deserve this world ?
Seriously though, when Saddam got picked up a year ago I was surprised that they didn't actually try this using him. I guess they needed to announce a victory at that point in the war, despite a boogeyman on the loose being better for controlling the populace than one in jail.
Quite the opposite. Saddam in jail, humiliated and weak, is better for the USA. Arabs don't cheer losers.
"Long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead." (John Maynard Keynes)
The Spanish don't like being told lies by their government. The Americans (at least those from the USA) seem to love it.
Some facts about the Spanish election: it was a close race before the attack, due in part of the opposition to the war from the Spanish people and thus opposed to the government being part of the coalition and the most important fact and probably decisive factor: the government lied and blamed it right away on ETA, the Basque separatist group, which has blood on its hands but was never involved in such a terrorist attack targetting random civilians.
So the US interpretation that this is just Spaniards caving in to terrorists is wrong and is just another example of how you don't get the rest of the world and this is in part due to the US media not doing a good enough job going past he sound bites.
This is the low road. Putting forth all sorts of tinfoil-hat claims just in case it does happen or something even distantly related happens.
It is nothing more advanced than the games we played on the playgrounds. It is childish and shows the levels the campaigns will stoop too.
Far worse than the October surprises are the claims that African Americans will be denied the right to vote by the millions, just as they were before!
Coming in October we should see claims that Senior Citizens will have their medicare and Social Security taken away, that blacks will be hounded by yahoos driving pickups in Texas, and that a certain Chief Executive eats babies.
Get real people.
I would be all for Osama or his Lts. being caught before the election. I don't care WHEN they are caught or killed, just that it happens.
To claim that it only happens because of an election is just to show how immature one side is compared to the other. (and they both STINK)
* Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
You say the audio tapes aren't genuine? I guess you know better than the CIA and the rest of the world's intelligence agencies, because they say he is alive.
The audio messages he has taped since the Tora Bora bombing have been confirmed to be Bin Laden's voice. Confirmed by the CIA, the world media, other intelligence agencies, confirmed by the Bin Laden family members and captured Al Quida members.
It's provable that some of those messages were taped long after 12/01. Because they mention events that occurred as recently as the past year.
It's also been surmised that Bin Laden got into Pakistan months prior to the US bombings of Tora Bora. He was given months of warning to move, many suspect that's exactly what he did.
General Tommy Franks said recently that there was no firm intelligence that Bin Laden was ever in Tora Bora. Bomb it to hell and back, how could it kill him if he wasn't there?
Why can't he be found? The intelligence community has suggested he uses notes, passed hand to hand, and his taped recordings in order to communicate with his followers. They say he could be in Pakistani badlands or possibly Cashmere. Either location would making finding him neigh on impossible.
There's a big difference between wishful thinking and facts on the ground. Wish him dead with the rest of us, but the facts and most experts believe Osama Bin Laden is still alive.
> we have no DNA from Osama bin Laden so there's no way for us to positively identify any of the human remains recovered as being from him.
We routinely use relatives' DNA for this kind of thing.
Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
Bush, OTOH, lied in order to lead the USA into an expensive, and utterly pointless war. As a result of Bush's lies there are now 1060+ dead Americans, and we've got a debt that we'll be paying for decades to come. On a scale of 1 to 10, I'd put Bush's lies at around 8 or 9.
Generally, I'd argue that a person who lies about sex is simply a human; everyone lies about sex. A person who lies to trick his country into going to war is a more serious problem.
"Mission Accomplished" -- George W. Bush May 1, 2003
Clinton lied about a lot of very important things (his dedication to the environment, his desire to help the working poor, his committment to equal right, etc), and for that reason I do not like Clinton. The blowjob lie is, however, the dumbest thing to dislike Clinton for I've ever heard of. There are so many better reasons to be anti-Clinton.
As for Bush, well, he told us there were WMD, and there aren't. If that doesn't count as a lie, I don't know what does.
"Mission Accomplished" -- George W. Bush May 1, 2003
Considering how Bush has avoided saying Bin Laden's name for the last few years, I'm inclined to not expect him to turn up before the election. If the administration had any hopes of showing up with him before the election, I can't imagine they'd try to get the American people to forget who he is like they've been doing.
Whatever the October surprise is going to be, I suspect it will turn up right before the election, not leaving any time for thorough investigation into the legitimacy of whatever stunt the administration may pull to affect last minute voting.