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Solar Minimum Coming Sooner Than Expected

Posted by timothy on from the just-in-time-for-solar-tea dept.

bigjocker writes "According to this NASA story: "Something strange happened on the sun last week: all the sunspots vanished. This is a sign, say forecasters, that solar minimum is coming sooner than expected.""

24 of 79 comments (clear)

  1. Obligatory... by kagaku · · Score: 2, Funny

    We're all gonna die!!

    --
    everyday is another shooter.
  2. Relax by Charvak · · Score: 3, Informative

    It happens every 11 or so years. Nothing to panic

    1. Re:Relax by Vaevictis666 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's noteworthy since (according to wikipedia) the last Solar Maximum was in 2001, so on an 11 year cycle, it shouldn't be due for another 2 1/2 years or so.

    2. Re:Relax by Babbster · · Score: 4, Funny

      It's probably all that pollution in our air - industry and automobiles are so evil, they're snuffing out the sun.

    3. Re:Relax by Aglassis · · Score: 5, Informative

      The current theory (at least how I get it) is that sunspots are related to the magnetic field of the Sun. We start by assuming that the magnetic field of the sun starts a cycle by resembling a bar magnet (where a magnetic field line goes directly from the geographic south pole to the geographic north pole without curving). Due to the faster rotation of the Sun at the equator than at the poles (observed), the magnetic field slowly becomes twisted around the Sun (in a helix). Any field lines that resist the twisting can unwind causing them to erupt from the surface forming a sunspot pair (one where it exited and one where it returned). It is theorized that the greater magnetic flux at these points causes a reduction in convective heat transfer to the surface resulting in a dimming of the light at these spots. Eventually due to the interaction of the erupted magnetic field lines with the non-erupted magnetic field lines, the sunspots are forced towards the poles. Once enough sunspots are at the poles and their fields are stronger than the non-erupted fields, the field of the sun can flip, anhililating all the sunspots and returning the Sun to a normal bar magnet orientation (except with the opposite polarity). This is observed to take about 11 years.

      It seems that if all the sunspots have disappeared, this should mean that the magnetic field has reversed early.

      --
      Suddenly, the hairy finger of a familiar monkey tapped me on the shoulder. It was time.--G. T.
  3. Well... by escher · · Score: 3, Funny

    I, for one, welcome our new...

    Oh hell. I can't. I just can't do it.

    1. Re:Well... by Usquebaugh · · Score: 4, Funny

      Rah is displeased with this lack of conviction.

    2. Re:Well... by Kehvarl · · Score: 4, Funny

      All hail the Sun God
      He sure is a fun God
      Ra! Ra! Ra!

  4. Expanded info by Goyuix · · Score: 5, Informative

    After a bit of googling and actually reading the articles (gasp!) - here is some info that I found rather interesting:

    The sun cycle is about 11 years. The length isn't fixed, it has varied between 9 and 14 years.

    The next minimum was expected in late 2006, so this is coming about a year early.

    Scientists don't understand the solar year, or what really causes it - so this could be a fluke or something else. So far it is just an interesting observation.

    The linked article is good, but the Wiki link needs some help. Any solar physicists out there that want to contribute?

    1. Re:Expanded info by Hatta · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I wonder if the early minimum is related at all to the amazing storm activity of last fall. Perhaps the Sun spent all it had then?

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    2. Re:Expanded info by synaptic · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It is probably correlated to the orbit of Jupiter which is 11.86 earth years and the other planets to a lesser degree.

      I would presume that like our moon creates tidal forces on our oceans, the planets create tidal forces on the sun's plasma and can stretch and tug on the sun and reduce the gravitational compression that fuses the fuel.

      If one were to analyze the location of the planets at each solar maximum and minimum, you might find the events that cause the variance in solar periods.

      But that's just an idea, I could be wrong. Let me know if you figure it out. I've seriously never looked.

    3. Re:Expanded info by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 4, Informative

      The tidal force on the Sun due to Jupiter should be down by around a factor of 100,000 from that of the Moon on the Earth, I figure. And it's difficult to see how tides would affect the field. They create a bulge, they shouldn't tangle up field lines. And there is no reason that I can figure that would explain why it's a 22-year cycle, rather than an 11-year. (We see a maxiumum is solar activity every 11 years, but the Sun's field returns to the same orientation (north or south) every 22 years.) So while I'd say you've got a good thought, it doesn't look like it would pan out.

      What seems to be happening is that the convection and rotation that generates the field also tangles it all up. Eventually, it's so messed up that it starts to reconnect and straighten itself out, getting simpler and weaker. And the cycle starts again, but in the opposite direction.

      Incidentally, Earth seems to do the same thing, just much more slowly. Look for "magnetic reversals" with Google.

    4. Re:Expanded info by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 3, Informative

      It's difficult to see how; the topology hasn't changed. If the bulge were really severe, I could imagine it altering the way convection works, but there's no way that it is.

      Oh, I should have noted that the Sun rotates ever 30 days or so. The buldge moves across the Sun on that timescale, so Jupiter's orbital period is nearly irrelevent. (There's a slight effect from eccentricity of the orbit, but Jupiter's orbit is pretty circular.)

  5. So what? by JVert · · Score: 2, Informative

    No, really, what.
    I think heavy solar flares help radio wave transmissions, gives all the HAM operators a stiff pole. Does this lack of flares make signals worse? I dont see anything about the natural effects of this.

    1. Re:So what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      The lower level of solar activity significantly affects short wave radio usage. When activity is low, the ionisphere is thinner, so the upper frequencies (20-30 MHz) do not reflect back to earth. On the other hand, when the level is high, even frequencies up arund 50 MHz can bounce back. This impacts a number of radio services, but last I looked, military bands take up most of that range. Amateur radio is allowed a few slivers and they are the most active in tracking what frequencies are the best at any given time. Other than that, only a few people operating outside the lawful parameters in the 27 MHz Citizen's Band are affected.

  6. Simple Explanation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    It happens every 11 or so years. Nothing to panic

    It's the maid's job to clean up all those sunspots, but it takes 11 years or so to get enough windex, 'cause the sun is really big. There was a surplus this year, so she came in early.

    Mystery solved.

    --
    AC

  7. Re:Then why haven't I heard of this before by gardyloo · · Score: 2, Informative

    Don't know why you've not heard of it. It's been well known for a long time. An example of the sort of data (and its analysis) that one might play with can be found at:

    http://www.scientificarts.com/sunspotanalysis/suns potanalysis.html

  8. post is late by awarlaw · · Score: 5, Informative

    according to www.spaceweather.com

    "One week ago, the sun was utterly blank: no sunspots. Now there are several. The largest, sunspot 682, is twice as wide as Earth -- and growing. But it does not yet pose a theat for strong solar flares. Solar activity should remain low in the days ahead."

    Low but not quite gone.
    Also, this just means that sunspots are fewer and farther between; not gone completely.

    --
    TIME is the Aether...
  9. Spoiler alert by vandelais · · Score: 4, Funny

    Kaboom!

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  10. Re:Minimum!?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Sun spots are a result of the sun spinning it's magnetic field into knots. Other results of this are coronal mass ejections, which can then potentially smash into the earth and present a significant hazzard to communications, satellites, and even power distribution and generation. The peak of this unpleasent activitiy is the solar maximum, while the minimum is just that.

    See, I can whore karma too. And I would think a guy who has an X-ray observatory named after him would try to be a little more up on the nomenclature. It's really the least you could do.

  11. Too funny by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Ya know, that'd be the basis for a great april fools joke. Write a fake paper, blaming the sun's "dimming" on man made activity couched in just enough uncertainty and jargon to make it believible to the functionally retarded, and see if one could get in distributed out into the bullshit machine to get something like an AP article, or a mention on CNN. Next step: Roland Emmerich and Dean Devlin make a shitty movie.

  12. The average never happens by kettlechips · · Score: 4, Insightful
    "Something strange happened on the sun last week: all the sunspots vanished. This is a sign, say forecasters, that solar minimum is coming sooner than expected."

    What would really be strange, is if there was no such thing as a deviation from the statistical average. Where actual single events are concerned, deviation from the average is more the rule than the exception.

    To "expect" the average to happen and to call it strange when it doesn't, is actually not very logical.

  13. Book anyway by mdp1173 · · Score: 2, Informative
    You don't necessarily need sunspots to make auroras. Sunsposts themselves don't cause auroras anyway. Auroras are caused by charged particles slamming into Earth's magnetic field, not by tanlged messes near the sun. It's just that sometimes these tangled messes collape and a whole bunch of sun-stuff (read: plasma) spits out in what is called a Corona Mass Ejection. If one of these CMEs hits Earth, it's aurora time.

    Charged particles stream off the sun all the time anyway, the solar wind. This causes auroras all year round, it you're far enough North (or South for you Aussies). You can sometimes get CMEs when things called solar filaments collape (sort of like sun spots, but not) or when there are holes in the corona of the sun that let more solar wind squirt out.

  14. All Bush's fault by SirLanse · · Score: 3, Funny

    It is all the fault of the republicans, John Kerry will restore the sun to its full power. He says Bush has neglected the sun and that is the reason for this. He will do a better job with sacrifices to the sun god.