An Open Source Tipping Point?

jg21 writes "Over at LinuxWorld there's an article arguing that open source will be propelled to market predominance by the same disruptive mechanism that brought Sony, Microsoft, and others to be market leaders at the moment. 'The improbable is possible - leaders have been dethroned in the past,' writes the author, who is also apparently the producer of an upcoming documentary entitled, 'The Digital Tipping Point' to be released in September 2005. The story refers to a corroborating article from South Africa and to Clayton Christensen's Seeing What's Next which backs up this general idea."

Comments

make your opinion known when vendors come in!

[Anonymous Coward]

I had whiterock networks and luminous networks reps in last week. They were demoing their new oc-48 gear. I made comments with both groups asking why an open source browser with a java plugin was not certified with their webgui. I asked the other vendor why they did not have a client server software for linux or freebsd.

I told them windows was unacceptable and solaris is not what we use. (Although the soft switch uses dual sol servers for the db.)

anyway. complain loudly to these vendors that they
need to support what we use in the data center.

Article in Desktoplinux.com

[at_slashdot]

Desktop Linux has just published this article: The Best Free Desktop Linux . . . and how to make it better

This is a great article that shows what a Desktop Linux could do. It's a great piece for Linux advocates to forward to people who'd like to switch but think that "Linux is way too hard to install and use".

0$ price it's very hard to beat, I expect that the forces of the economy will swipe MS away as soon that people realize that they could do with Linux the same things they do with Windows (only more secure and cheaper) . Good times ahead :)

Will take some time

[einhverfr]

I am a consultant with many small business customers. A few are pondering the use of Linux (I charge more for monthly maintenance of Windows systems because they take more of my time). But there are a few obstacles which completely prevent a few of them from using Linux (these are sufficiently small businesses not to have any dedicated servers).

The largest obstacle is that many of these businesses depend on vertically targetted web sites and programs which may not work on Linux. Yes, we could get many of these to work probable with Win4Lin or Crossover. However, the uncertainty and supportability is an issue.

But other clients of mine are already committing to Linux. In one case, we saved $20,000 for a customer in license fees alone, not to mention the support costs in network simplification by using Linux-based VPN appliances rather than an equivalent on Windows. In another case, we have a very successful Linux desktop deployment. In another case, we have a customer thinking about switching so he doesn't have to pay me to swing by every month to run a spyware/virus scan.

It will happen, but slowly.

Re:Will take some time

[einhverfr]

So what do you suppose would be the turning point for your customers pondering Linux?

How much would have to change or improve for them to decide in a wholesale way to jump ship.

They would need a guaranteed way of running the applications that they require in a supported way.

Let me give you an example. A local insurance agency is a customer of mine. They connect to a terminal server in New York to do most of their work so in theory maybe rdesktop would be a good solution. In practice, it isn't so simple. The server uses propritary and Windows-only software (Simplify printing) to redirect the printers. And they also need to access IE-only sites like Safeco as well as use Windows-only tools such as those for IBQ and Progressive. I could sell them on the Linux solution easily if these problems were solved.


Or do you think that it will continue to go the way it's going now, step by step. A sort of glacier movement, slow but impossible to stop...?

For now. I think that when Linux desktop market share starts to move faster (spurred by adoption by large businesses) that the dam will start to break. With Munich, Brazil, and possibly Paris, this could also start to move faster.

Re:does MS care

[agent oranje]

Maybe MS has already put the OS on a low priority, recognizing better ROI from office or integration of entertainment.

This is what I hope for. I don't think that Microsoft software is particularly a Bad Thing(tm), but the operating systems are complete crap. I'd much rather use Microsoft Office than OpenOffice or an open-source equivalent... It may be "bloated," but it's still gobs faster, and much more polished. For that matter, the best version of Microsoft Office is for OSX... which shows that Microsoft is definitely able to develop good software for alternate platforms. Why not Linux?

The XBox, I hope, is Microsoft's way of weening children off of the Wintendo and onto a machine that is intended for gaming. XBox 2 sounds like it's trying to be the all-in-one digital entertainment center. So, either Microsoft is realizing they should focus on things other than their OS, or they're just trying to get a monopoly in a new market. But given that their OS is many, many years behind in terms of security and stability - and always will be - I hope that they start encouraging people to move to better platforms... but I think that migration will happen slowly on its own.

Bla bla bla

[sn0wflake]

I'm sorry to say that Linux will not win over Windows as long as you can't play new games like The Sims 2 or do simple things without opening a console. Yes, I know that DirectX is closed-source and I know that Linux is a very smart OS. But Linux is way to hard to learn and configure. I've tried many times to convert to Linux and everytime I'm missing a game or simply don't want to read the telephone sized FAQ's. Doing simple tasks like changing screen resolution should not involve opening a console and typing in obscure commands. I know I'll get modded down, but seriously Linux guys. Face it, Linux is to hard for normal users to use. Mom users like their puzzle bubble and surfing the web with Mozilla, but as a Joe Smoe user I can only say that using Linux for everyday tasks is still way too hard and I don't want to invest years just to learn Linux when Windows simply work with a click of a mouse.

Re:Brazil

[drinkypoo]

Strongly disagree. Linux is much easier to deploy than windows. With windows NT, if you make a system image, you can't deploy it on (typically) even a slightly different system or you will get an INACCESSIBLE_BOOT_DEVICE error at boot time. I've heard people say that you can use the generic IDE drivers but that doesn't work with all systems, and you will then have to go manually change the ide drivers to suit the new system. With Linux, you can either compile in support for everything, or use a big initrd and use modules, either way your system will come up and "just work" provided you follow some simple rules between machines, like making the hard disk the primary master.

Re:Dear short-term memory editors

[dtfinch]

I don't expect they'll publish any more of Ms. O'Gara's articles. But all the other sites owned by their parent will continue to do so. So the ad revenue will flow.

The LinuxWorld editors tried to apologize, blaming it on the LinuxBusinessWeek editors and mentioning that several LinuxWorld editors threatened to resign in protest. Since they're both owned by SYS-CON, both infact running basically the same site, they're expected to cross publish certain articles.

http://www.linuxworld.com/story/46821.htm

The LinuxBusinessWeek editors on the other hand say they disagree with the LinuxWorld editors about the quality of the article, and that LinuxBusinessWeek stands by that article and look forward to publishing more of Maureen's works. But "We will no longer provide news content to LinuxWorld Magazine's accompanying Web site."

http://www.linuxbusinessweek.com/story/46854.htm

So the ad revenue will still flow to the FUD flingers (parent company), but if the LinuxWorld editors have their way the FUD will stop appearing on LinuxWorld, or they'll resign, or they'll get raises.

Hate to disagree but

[ewe2]

Most of this article just extrapolated corporate WishThink. The "inevitability" of the end of MS blissfully ignores the dependence of hardware manufacturers at one end, and the GUI-dependence of users at the other. Nor is the OS a done deal, and most of the "commoditization" of office apps is still Microsoft OS-based, whatever the attractions of OpenOffice/StarOffice.

I can't hammer this point enough: MS has a gatekeeper mentality because it IS the gatekeeper. That is what needs to change. If MS could shoot down the GPL, it would not hesitate to sell an MS shell over a linux core, if it can justify dumping the NT asset. Okay, that's two if's but they're realistic if's. Otherwise, MS will stay put and strong-arm everyone.

What linux needs is shrink-wrapped POS systems. Shrink-wrapped accounting/stock-management. Take out those dependencies and you'll get a huge slice of market share.