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Slate Posts Top-Secret Exit Polling Numbers
cmdr_beeftaco writes "Slate is running an ongoing commentary with the raw exit-poll data from the National Election Pool consortium owned by the Associated Press and the five television networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox, and CNN) to their news divisions and to the newsrooms of NEP subscribers-big city newspapers and other broadcasters. 'The paid users of exit-poll data have signed a blood oath not to divulge it to unauthorized eyes, and the networks have promised not to call any states before their polls close. Slate believes its readers should know as much about the unfolding election as the anchors and other journalists, so given the proviso that the early numbers are no more conclusive than the midpoint score of a baseball game, we're publishing the exit-poll numbers as we receive them.'"
There's also constant updates at race2004.net
I had some trouble accessing Slate a little while ago, in case others have the same problem, here is a copy of text as of 5:55PM EST:
... 12:15 p.m. PT
... If [Gov. Gray Davis] is recalled, there are widespread expectations--again, for whatever they may be worth--that Republican Arnold
--
Early Exit
Kerry leads.
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 2:46 PM PT
The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard:
Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49
Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49
Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45
Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46
Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47
Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40
Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50
New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48
North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51
Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53
Other exit-poll results have arrived in more vague form, with Kerry leading Bush in New Hampshire but trailing him in Arizona and Louisiana.
For an explanation of why Slate is posting exit-poll numbers, see the previous post, below.
Exit Poll Charade: Why Slate is posting the exit-poll numbers: As this item posts, the first raw exit-poll data are streaming from the National Election Pool consortium owned by the Associated Press and the five television networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox, and CNN) to their news divisions and to the newsrooms of NEP subscribers--big city newspapers and other broadcasters.
These early exit-poll numbers do not divine the name of the winner. Instead, regard these numbers as a sportswriter does the line scores from the fourth inning of a baseball game. The leading team might win the game, but then again it might not. But having the early data in front of him helps the sportswriter plot the story he thinks he'll need to write at game's end.
Continue Article
As you read this posting, the political reporters at the networks, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, NPR, Newsweek, and about two dozen other news outlets are cracking their knuckles over their keyboards, contemplating the story, while statisticians and political analysts at the networks prepare to run the numbers through their computer models to generate a prediction.
The paid users of exit-poll data have signed a blood oath not to divulge it to unauthorized eyes, and the networks have promised not to call any states before their polls close. But the numbers always leak out to other journalists--such as the writers at Slate--and starting at about 5 p.m. ET or so, the news anchors start giving clues about what they've learned from the exit-poll results. As John Tierney writes in today's New York Times, the result on television is sometimes like a "version of the Dance of the Seven Veils, in which anchors or correspondents will pretend not to know what's happening in a state but give enough clues for the discerning viewer. They might allude to the high spirits at one campaign headquarters, or start speculating about what effect the loss of this state would have on the other candidate."
In the 2003 gubernatorial election in California, the networks kept their solemn oath not to call the winner until polls closed at 11 p.m. ET. Just the same, CBS News' Dan Rather telegraphed his findings in this 6:30 p.m. ET broadcast.
With voting still under way in the California governor recall election, CBS News exit polls, for whatever, if anything, they may be worth, now indicate many voters made up their minds weeks ago.
"Afternoon Exit Polls - The latest batch.
By Jack Shafer - Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 2:29 PM PT - The 4 p.m. ET exit-poll numbers:
Florida - Kerry 52 - Bush 48
Ohio - Kerry 52 - Bush 47
Michigan - Kerry 51 - Bush 48
Pennsylvania - Kerry 58 - Bush 42
Iowa - Kerry 50 - Bush 48
Wisconsin - Kerry 53 - Bush 47
Minnesota - Kerry 57 - Bush 42
New Hampshire - Kerry 58 - Bush 41
Maine - Kerry 55 - Bush 44
New Mexico - Kerry 49 - Bush 49
Nevada - Kerry 48 - Bush 49
Colorado - Kerry 49 - Bush 50
Arkansas - Kerry 45 - Bush 54
North Carolina - Kerry 47 - Bush 53"
It's still too early to be sure about anything, but this is a lot better than i've been fearing for the past few weeks.
This Space Intentionally Left Blank
Zogby has already called it for Kerry 311 to 213.
Early results/predictions are interesting, but that's all.
Election results: early or accurate, pick one.
Take these with a grain of salt but here you go:
5PM EST exit polls... From an email sent by a Demo staffer on the Hill.
PRESIDENTIAL
FLorida: Kerry up by four
Ohio: Kerry up by five
Michigan: Kerry up by four
Pennsyvlania: Kerry up by 16
Iowa: Kerry up by 2
Wisconsin: Kerry up by 5
Minnesota: Kerry up by 15
Nevada: Bush up by one
New Mexico: tied at 49
Virginia: Bush up by one
North Carolina: Bush up by 5
Maine: 55-44 Kerry, with Kerry winning both congressional districts avoiding an electoral college split.
Colorado: Kerry inched up to 51-49 lead as of 3 pm
Chew: You Nexus, huh? I design your eyes.
Roy: Chew, if only you could see what I've seen with your eyes.
Especially if they call it in favor of the liberal AGAIN and are wrong AGAIN.
When did that happen? I just remember 2000, when they called it for George Bush (who is a republican, but most emphatically not conservative).
In 2000, they called Florida for Gore prematurely, while the polls in Florida were still open. (They switched to Bush during the night.)
Wolf Blitzer, Larry King etc. were talking about that mess just now on CNN, and how that was an embarassing mistake.
This year, they waited untill all the polls in the state closed, before calling the state. And now they will be more careful, looking more closely at the actual vote numbers and having three possible outcomes: Bush, Kerry or Too close to call.
I see the mods have been watching F911 along with the rest of the world.
Irene KHAAAAAAN!