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Gartner Predicts Linux Gains In 2005
An anonymous reader submits "According to news in The Australian, Gartner research is predicting big gains for Linux from Microsoft in 2005, including desktop adoption in the public sector and banks. In fact, Gartner is also predicting that '40 percent of large financial services organizations will have deployed Linux' by 2005. Seems a little optimistic to me, but it is better than predictions the other way!"
Does anyone still pay attention to Gartner?
All they are doing is annoying Microsoft so that they can get their monthly paycheck by producing a reverse statement.
They deserve no respect.
badness 10000
Does anyone still pay attention to Gartner?
Lots of companies outsource their IT strategy research to outfits like Gartner. Sure, companies still reserve the right to make their own decisions, but they do listen carefully to what "Gartner sez" (yes, sometimes instead of thinking) and, frequently, researchers at Gartner have more time to do in-depth research because they spread the costs over all their clients.
They have to maintain some semblance of being unbiased, accurate, and useful to their clients, so if they parroted MS sales droid talk too much they would lose their credibility and their clients. But, you're right, there is inertia with the herd.
Predicting more Linux deployment is not going out on a limb by any means.
The harder prediction is to tell your Inquiring Clients exactly when and where Linux should be deployed to best satisfy their business needs, reduce costs, etc. By sticking to the Playing It Safe playbook, I expect Gartner to say "Go!" sometime after Linux is actually ready.
If Gartner told their customers to "Go!" before Linux was "ready" it would be a mistake for their customers to follow the advice, those customers would suffer, blame Gartner, not renew their Gartner contracts, and, most importantly, Linux would get a black eye by dissatisifed customers not wanting a Science Project IT infrastructure.
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If Gartner is making the bet that 40% of large financial institutions will have deployed Linux by 2005, they are making a very safe bet. There's what, 45 days left in 2004? Presumably, then, the 40% figure has already been reached or will be reached immediately. It's really no big deal to predict the state of IT 45 days in the future.
I'll make some predictions, we can see if I'm as accurate as Gartner. Microsoft will control more than 90% of the desktop market by 2005. Apache will run approximately 67.77% of all websites, by domain, by 2005 (plus or minus one percent). The Linux kernel will be on version 2.6.9.x or 2.6.10.x by 2005. Microsoft will not release any new service packs or new editions of Windows 2003 or Windows XP by 2005.
See, it's really easy! Come on, Gartner, try predicting MORE than 45 days in advance. Predicting 'by 2005' is just too easy.
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