Gartner Predicts Linux Gains In 2005

An anonymous reader submits "According to news in The Australian, Gartner research is predicting big gains for Linux from Microsoft in 2005, including desktop adoption in the public sector and banks. In fact, Gartner is also predicting that '40 percent of large financial services organizations will have deployed Linux' by 2005. Seems a little optimistic to me, but it is better than predictions the other way!"

Comments

It can be spun either way

[gmhowell]

but it is better than predictions the other way

A pessimistic prediction can be spun today by saying:

"Gartner doesn't think much of possibility of Linux on the desktop"

An optimistic prediction (that the submitter thinks lies here), if proven optimistic will be:

"Linux adoption fails to meet expectations"

The latter is a bigger concern, so I disagree that optimistic predictions are better. More adoptions than expected is better.

Not Too Optimistic

[dshaw858]

Seems a little optimistic to me, but it is better than predictions the other way!

I actually believe that this prediction will be accurate. What with the new Novell Linux Desktop, and open source getting headlines as it is (Solaris 10, for example), I don't think that this goal is so out of reach. Not to mention, I seem to recall a lot of naysayers about Firefox gaining popularity over Internet Explorer... and look how that turned out! :)

- dshaw

Meaningless figures?

[SmallFurryCreature]

In the interest of full disclosure I am a pinko penquin lover.

But what are they saying. 40% of business will put up a machine running linux somewhere in their business. Gee.

I worked at several windows-only companies were I deployed linux. Typically something like the webserver. If you are talking +10.000 seats of windows +1 linux webserver then it still meets Gartners figures. Hell if it is 1 tech guy running linux and getting away with it it still counts.

Frankly predictions like these are there for the press because they need headlines. Microsoft with dos and later windows never had a year of the "........" breaking through. It was a very slow process for them to breakthrough and be accepted in business used to buy unix and mainframes.

The adoption of MS in the business can also tell you something about what Linux needs to be to get adopted.

Many people complain about Linux being to hard or not running on every piece of hardware they got but they forgot that Dos and Windows have the exact same problems.

Oh Windows runs on every piece of hardware inside business? All right, lets convert this all "apple" company to windows then without buying new hardware. Or this all "mipps" workstation company without buy new hardware. Oh, can't be done? Windows only runs on x86 hardware? This was actually a problem at times in the past, youngsters and old windows lovers just like to forget that their are other pieces of hardware then dells.

And if you think a bunch of dos machines was easier to maintain then a single mainframe with a set of terminals you are insane. Dos threw far more crap at the user then mainframes ever did. Yet the lesser options and increased maintenance were accepted because. Well I don't know. For some reason it seemed to make business sense.

And that is what Linux needs to be adopted. For its use inside the company to make somekind of sense to somebody who has the power to decide. It can be because they think it is cheaper, because they think that being locked into one supplier ain't that smart, because the staff that has to work with it prefers it, because they like the penquin cuddly look, because they want to take the MS salesslime on a tour through the department past the desk off the linux user and go "oh yeah we are really interestted in the tco of linux vs windows".

Gartner needs headlines as advertising for its services. News services need headlines. So long as this is true we will keep seing reports like "XXXX the year of .........". Just ignore. If you want further evidence, ask yourselve this. What was the year of the diesel engine, or the year of the jet engine. There was a time when trucks used petrol engines. Pinpoint the year this changed.

its all the same

[jubalj]

when has popular opinion counted for anything..

Linux usage is bound to rise irrespective of the popular opinion, mostly because it only ever seems to get better..