Slashdot Mirror
Gartner Predicts Linux Gains In 2005
An anonymous reader submits "According to news in The Australian, Gartner research is predicting big gains for Linux from Microsoft in 2005, including desktop adoption in the public sector and banks. In fact, Gartner is also predicting that '40 percent of large financial services organizations will have deployed Linux' by 2005. Seems a little optimistic to me, but it is better than predictions the other way!"
I've done some contract work at some of these in .au, and yes, lots of them are indeed hoping to deploy Linux soon (some have already, but lots (particularly the larger ones) havent). Some might say they're a bit behind the wave, but some of these places are terribly ponderous.
Some big corps are taking a clear "wait-and-see" approach to the SCO litigation, and won't commit themselves until it's all cleared up and won't cause them any trouble.
but it is better than predictions the other way
A pessimistic prediction can be spun today by saying:
"Gartner doesn't think much of possibility of Linux on the desktop"
An optimistic prediction (that the submitter thinks lies here), if proven optimistic will be:
"Linux adoption fails to meet expectations"
The latter is a bigger concern, so I disagree that optimistic predictions are better. More adoptions than expected is better.
Jesus was all right but his disciples were thick and ordinary. -John Lennon
Seems a little optimistic to me, but it is better than predictions the other way!
:)
I actually believe that this prediction will be accurate. What with the new Novell Linux Desktop, and open source getting headlines as it is (Solaris 10, for example), I don't think that this goal is so out of reach. Not to mention, I seem to recall a lot of naysayers about Firefox gaining popularity over Internet Explorer... and look how that turned out!
- dshaw
Does anyone still pay attention to Gartner?
All they are doing is annoying Microsoft so that they can get their monthly paycheck by producing a reverse statement.
They deserve no respect.
badness 10000
Gartner is just a stooge of Microsoft! Of course they are going to predict losses on the desktop for linux.
Oh, wait, you say they are predicting *gains*?
In that case, of course they are right!
But what are they saying. 40% of business will put up a machine running linux somewhere in their business. Gee.
I worked at several windows-only companies were I deployed linux. Typically something like the webserver. If you are talking +10.000 seats of windows +1 linux webserver then it still meets Gartners figures. Hell if it is 1 tech guy running linux and getting away with it it still counts.
Frankly predictions like these are there for the press because they need headlines. Microsoft with dos and later windows never had a year of the "........" breaking through. It was a very slow process for them to breakthrough and be accepted in business used to buy unix and mainframes.
The adoption of MS in the business can also tell you something about what Linux needs to be to get adopted.
Many people complain about Linux being to hard or not running on every piece of hardware they got but they forgot that Dos and Windows have the exact same problems.
Oh Windows runs on every piece of hardware inside business? All right, lets convert this all "apple" company to windows then without buying new hardware. Or this all "mipps" workstation company without buy new hardware. Oh, can't be done? Windows only runs on x86 hardware? This was actually a problem at times in the past, youngsters and old windows lovers just like to forget that their are other pieces of hardware then dells.
And if you think a bunch of dos machines was easier to maintain then a single mainframe with a set of terminals you are insane. Dos threw far more crap at the user then mainframes ever did. Yet the lesser options and increased maintenance were accepted because. Well I don't know. For some reason it seemed to make business sense.
And that is what Linux needs to be adopted. For its use inside the company to make somekind of sense to somebody who has the power to decide. It can be because they think it is cheaper, because they think that being locked into one supplier ain't that smart, because the staff that has to work with it prefers it, because they like the penquin cuddly look, because they want to take the MS salesslime on a tour through the department past the desk off the linux user and go "oh yeah we are really interestted in the tco of linux vs windows".
Gartner needs headlines as advertising for its services. News services need headlines. So long as this is true we will keep seing reports like "XXXX the year of .........". Just ignore. If you want further evidence, ask yourselve this. What was the year of the diesel engine, or the year of the jet engine. There was a time when trucks used petrol engines. Pinpoint the year this changed.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
when has popular opinion counted for anything..
Linux usage is bound to rise irrespective of the popular opinion, mostly because it only ever seems to get better..
Does anyone still pay attention to Gartner?
Lots of companies outsource their IT strategy research to outfits like Gartner. Sure, companies still reserve the right to make their own decisions, but they do listen carefully to what "Gartner sez" (yes, sometimes instead of thinking) and, frequently, researchers at Gartner have more time to do in-depth research because they spread the costs over all their clients.
They have to maintain some semblance of being unbiased, accurate, and useful to their clients, so if they parroted MS sales droid talk too much they would lose their credibility and their clients. But, you're right, there is inertia with the herd.
Predicting more Linux deployment is not going out on a limb by any means.
The harder prediction is to tell your Inquiring Clients exactly when and where Linux should be deployed to best satisfy their business needs, reduce costs, etc. By sticking to the Playing It Safe playbook, I expect Gartner to say "Go!" sometime after Linux is actually ready.
If Gartner told their customers to "Go!" before Linux was "ready" it would be a mistake for their customers to follow the advice, those customers would suffer, blame Gartner, not renew their Gartner contracts, and, most importantly, Linux would get a black eye by dissatisifed customers not wanting a Science Project IT infrastructure.
"Provided by the management for your protection."
If Gartner is making the bet that 40% of large financial institutions will have deployed Linux by 2005, they are making a very safe bet. There's what, 45 days left in 2004? Presumably, then, the 40% figure has already been reached or will be reached immediately. It's really no big deal to predict the state of IT 45 days in the future.
I'll make some predictions, we can see if I'm as accurate as Gartner. Microsoft will control more than 90% of the desktop market by 2005. Apache will run approximately 67.77% of all websites, by domain, by 2005 (plus or minus one percent). The Linux kernel will be on version 2.6.9.x or 2.6.10.x by 2005. Microsoft will not release any new service packs or new editions of Windows 2003 or Windows XP by 2005.
See, it's really easy! Come on, Gartner, try predicting MORE than 45 days in advance. Predicting 'by 2005' is just too easy.
Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.