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Will Open Source Solaris Kill Linux?
Scott_Blayney writes "This guy contends that now that Sun is releasing Solaris 10 under an open source license, Linux will begin to wane in popularity. To quote, "Linux will probably not grow much beyond its current market share of about 10 % leaving Red Hat and especially Novell with a big problem."
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Frankly, an Open Source Solaris stands a better chance at killing Solaris than it does Linux.
The author starts the article by declaring "Let me start by saying that I'm not a technical expert. Although this might be a handicap it could very well be a positive in looking at the issue of Sun versus Linux in the server business from a decision maker's point of view." He's basically lost most of his credibility there, because a good decision maker needs to bring in technical people to explain this.
Though I understand the PHB philosophy of needing a brand name on their *nix product, I don't understand what's wrong with Red Hat or Novell now?
Moreover, it's setting itself up for patent lawsuits once the usual suspects start going through the newly open sourced code. Not that it's an agreeable method, but it's a fact of life.
The points the author makes are weak:
o The Solaris software is of proven quality and at least equal or better then Linux and the open source model will assure that it stays up there.
An open source model assures it of nothing, unless they get good contributors....but:
o Because Sun by default is the only designated party managing the open source software, there will be no risk of a version bonanza with multiple incompatible versions.
No risk of a version bonanza with multiple incompatible versions? Does this individual not recall that this is the company who had put out Java 2 (1.2) and Java 5 (1.5) before a real version 2?
o Sun has a proven reputation in terms of quality of support. This should be at least as good or better then that of the Linux supporters.
Sun's support isn't bad no, but IBM's been an awesome proponent of Linux - including Red Hat's 3.0 offering. Big names do know Linux, and work with you on it. Not to mention that Google is an awesome knowledge base for Linux users. And how much does it cost to search google vs. a support incident with Sun?
I don't buy that this will affect Linux's growth in the server market any more than the stray bullet SCO lawsuits. Open Source Solaris will definitely invite more hobbyist interest, but I don't understand why any of this makes it a more viable server product.
Agreed. It's more than just OS capabilities. It is also an emotional thing. And I believe on that issue Linux has the mind-share.
This article is a pointless exercise, but since my alternative to commenting on it is to go do actual work, let's consider:
In terms of Sun's conversion to open source: Too little, way too late. If Sun had pulled this seven or eight years ago they might have had a chance at stopping Linux before it got rolling, but frankly I don't see any way a system developed as proprietary in-house software is going to be able to come out and defeat the reigning champion of the OSS movement. Everything else aside, consider the simple fact that you can't go open source overnight. Look at how long it took to turn Mozilla into something useful -- by the time the open source version finally hit the mainstream it was hugely reorganized and largely rewritten. This process took years to complete, and that was just for a web browser. So unless Sun's programmers had a *lot* more discipline than Netscape's (doubtful) and a lot fewer tangled licenses (impossible), forget about it right there.
Aside from the huge initial development issue, consider the business side: What possible reason is there to think that Solaris is going to be able to come out and impact Linux's market share? The author himself uses language that doesn't support the idea that more people are going to switch to Solaris as a result of this. In fact, the most logical outcome of the points made in the article is that Sun *may* slow the erosion of their install base over to Linux. Not exactly killing Linux there.
Then we get some more of the same 'ol. The reasons he states in the article for the impending demise of Linux could have been (and were repeatedly) written ten years a go and are just as wrong now as they were then -- sure, any of the fears he listed *could* happen, but they haven't.
To sum up, this article makes incorrect assumptions, starts from a place of poor understanding and leaps to unsupported conclusions. The greatest revelation is creates is probably that YEALD needs to find themselves a new COO.
Every year during my review, I just pray the words "slashdot.org" aren't mentioned.
First off, if Linus picks a GUI, he's going to piss off half the users of Linux, who will in turn, fork Linux. I'm not sure what you mean "starts up a desktop linux fork". What's wrong the the kernel going to the desktop? The kernel is *not* the problem, the problem is the desktop (KDE/Gnome/Whatever), and hardware detection (see this for an idea), and whatever else is keeping Linux from the desktop (lack of programs?). Whatever it is, it's not the kernel (if you ask me...).
Tell the truth and you won't have so much to remember.
Exactly.
Never forget that there will be differences between Solaris code and LINUX code (well, we hope). Even if every bit of software were successfully ported, there are enough people that know LINUX inside out that don't have time to learn the Solaris code to the same level.
The hardcore purists on either side will argue until they're blue in the face about how theirs is better (hey, isn't that why we're all here?). That fight alone will be enough for some people to keep it alive.
Let's not forget that even Sun has and supports LINUX. Their Java Desktop is a bunch of Java tools with a Sun setup on SUSE. I'm sure someday they'd drop that support, but for now, even they don't think that Solaris is enough of a LINUX killer to release the product on Solaris.
Additionally, even if Solaris were ported hard enough to get the same or more hardware compatibility of LINUX, they dropped all LINUX support in favor of Solaris, a guy from Sun came out to your place to install it for free, and made sure you were comfortable before he left, some people love the penguin too much...
Now, before you start the flaming, let me state I'm not an idiot. I'm not particularly partial to Solaris or LINUX. I use Solaris on my Sun Blade Sparc workstation and an x86 as a server. I have SUSE and RedHat running, and a lab machine on which I've also installed Fedora, Debian, Slacker and a few others. And I have an old machine I use as a thin client to both Solaris and LINUX using Knoppix and DSL. Yes, I have some Windows machines, too.
My wife does think it's too much, but what does she know? (Really, honey, I meant it as a rib, not a slam...)
End the FUD
OK, imagine with me...
/atleast/ on par if not far ahead feature-for-feature with their competition. Yet, they arn't adopted more than their niche(but rabid) markets.
Sun has, in Solaris 10, arguably the most powerful core OS of any on the market for general/server/production use(not counting embedded, rt, or mainframe systems and I know not enough about them). They have some killer stats, powerful new features, and amazing development coming out. This all sits under xorg+gnome for a gui...
ok, transition time... please don't kill me, just hear me out...
Apple(*ducks*) has arguably, the most powerful gui on the market. Feature wise, simplicity, elegance and consistant... Very powerful, though not perfect, ofcourse. Darwin is a nice enough system but doesn't have much more the 'average' features. Nothing makes it have a selling point other than it exists and it is freebsd-like.
What both companies have is an amazing half OS that by all accounts is
I propose a merger. Sun is marginally(25-50%, i think) larger than Apple income wise and whanot. Merging the two systems, the Aqua and solid gui on top of Solaris 10 core system. This would take time and would coincide with the System 11 release(ironically) for both companies.
To make this really work though, they need to migrate. Procide highend workstations and servers(as Sun and Apple always have) but offer a lowend as well... Sun offers x86 systems for lowend servers, and has talked about a ppc port of solaris. Personally, I think ppc is superior, with IBM's work they have made it very powerful. But an AMD64 system would be fine as well.
The companies need to flood the markets with their OS, even if it is on amd64, only, at a less-supported(community support for the free version)... I mean, send free boxed copies of their software to every university with a cs department, free of charge. They need to literally hand this software out to everyone they can. Free download for personal or non-profit use (minimum) and have a good resource/community site for support.
The more open the system the better, but both companies use open source where it makes sense in their systems, not because they are sucking up, but because it is the best choice for the product.
PS. yes, I know Apple is a hardware company. I wrote this on my 12" pbook. Sun is a hardware company too, which makes demand for an operating system that(for full use/support like sparc or ppc's cooler features) require a more highend(expensive) machine.
IBM does this with Linux, they are a hardware company using a generic operating system on highend machines.
As an employee for a very large ISP (the one that's dispised), I can say that Linux is going to win this one. Sun has been the primary platform for the last 5 years, and now many of those old 400mhz Sun boxes are coming off lease. Their replacments are all Linux. Why? Simple - It's disposable. The hardware, the software, everything. Once we use it up, we throw it away like a bent paperclip. Sun simply can't compete. For one thing, their prices are still insane (not Apple Hardware insane, but close). Their support, while excellent, is way too expensive. In fact, it's so expensive, that third parties offer discount Sun support. HP does. And third, their hardware underperforms.
Compare that with run of the mill dual proc 3Ghz Intel boxes, which are super fast, cheaper than a used Camry, and abundant. And Linux runs great on them.
Linux has won this contest, and this is Suns attempt at making amends to all those customers they raped for the last 10 years by overcharging for support and hardware.