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Burt Rutan On Future Of SpaceShipOne (and Two)
Neil Halelamien writes "In a recent interview with the Desert Sun, Burt Rutan talks about the future of SpaceShipOne and SpaceShipTwo. The bad news is that SpaceShipOne will be retired straight to the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum, despite getting five different requests to fly suborbital payloads. The good news is that efforts are being focused on SpaceShipTwo, which will carry nine people, and fly higher and further downrange than SpaceShipOne. Virgin Galactic will purchase a fleet of five of these vehicles, which will start test flights in 2007. Virgin Galactic may end up competing with Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin, which is rumored to be developing a VTOL suborbital vehicle. Also interesting to watch will be Rutan's involvement with t/Space, one of the companies contracted by NASA to conduct concept studies for the Vision for Space Exploration."
Could they join the 100 mile high club?
Rus
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This man is an inspiration to everybody. He is innovative, intelligent, and follows through with his dreams and goals. So tell me why, WHY Dub Bush gets Time's Person of the Year and Rutan does not.
Kip Hawley is an idiot.
VTOL seems like such a bad idea to me. Not only do you have to cary fuel for liftoff, but for landing as well. What's the benefit?
It's kind of trusting law-enforcement or health-care to private corporations. Way too important to be trusted to people who only understand profit.
These stories (Private spaceflight) are one of the few things that strike me as awesome. Simply because of all the science fiction I have read, and interest in space flight...
It's amazing how fast it's coming along since the X-Prize, with some great (and very rich!) minds at the forefront.
The future in this area looks good
Excuse me, I don't mean to impose, but I am the ocean
The bad news is that SpaceShipOne will be retired straight to the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum...
This has to be the stupidest comment I have seen in a /. article posting in a long time. Does this person have any regard at all for the enormous historical value this space ship has?
Imagine it was *not* retired, then went down in flames in a subsequent mission. A very important part of humanity's history would be lost, forever.
Try to think beyond the next few years for once in your life. You can send up payloads in SpaceShipTwo, or SpaceShipThree, or SpaceShipNineteen. But there is only one SpaceShipOne. And I for one would like it to still be around in 80 years, so I can go to the museum with my great-grandchildren and say "Look what some people of my generation accomplished".
...SpaceShipThree.One.
I applaud his decision to send it straight to the Smithsonian. It shows he's a realist and understands the experimental nature of the project.
SpaceshipOne was a concept demonstrator. For him, its time to move on to the production version.
Here are a few random thoughts on what I would have considered doing, had I been in charge:
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
Too much "help" from NASA has hurt development in some respects.
Are you trying to tell me competion doesn't lead to innovation? There has to be a division somewhere between companies and ideas, otherwise only one sollution would be proposed, and only one solution built.
However many solutions, with the one working solution being used for the next stage of innovation, is a much better system.
NASA may not be dumb. But they are a huge goverment operation that may not be doing things the best way, and other than internal competition, there is not way to promote differing ideas.
Because Bush is more controversial, and his face on the cover will sell more magazineS than somebody who has taken part in something so enormous its consequences can barely be imagined.
With all due respect, I think Bush has had a far greater impact on the world that Rutan will. Bush invaded Afghanistan, instituted massive tax cuts, racked up huge government deficits, added prescription drug benefits to Medicare, invaded Iraq, and made huge changes in US policy towards Israel/Palestine and North Korea. By the time he's done he may also privatize Social Security and preside over the successful completion of another WTO round that could have a huge impact on third world economies. These actions all will have a major impact on social welfare programs, global economics, and geopolitics for years to come - whether they are good or bad, no one can deny their unbelievable impact. Personally, I loved Clinton, but there's no way Clinton had as much impact as Bush has had thus far.
Hell, I haven't even mentioned Bush's coat tails - the man increased his congressional majorities in both 2002 and 2004! That's simply amazing, and may be the start of a long period of Republican dominance in Washington, D.C.
As for Rutan, yes, SpaceShipOne is impressive. But, to my mind, it impacts only one aspect of human existence, and is a breakthrough that would have occurred even without him.
What is amazing about SpaceShipOne is not that it is some unimagined technological marvel, but that it heralds the start of a commercial age in space (or speeds up the commercial age in space, since satellite launching had already been privatized to some extent). But if Rutan had not been around, someone else would have done it. He didn't initiate the X-Prize, he just won it. As we can see by the other competitors for X-Prize and the others who are trying to set up competitors for the next round of space commercialization, if he didn't do it, someone else would have.
By comparison, if Gore had been elected, things would be anything like they are now. Again - good or bad - Bush has heralded in huge changes that would not have happened without him. Rutan has issued in one change that won't impact any of us for years to come, and would inevitably have happened even if he hadn't been around.
Virgin Orbit sounds more likely in the near term.
The real cause of the uncommanded roll was an issue with the wing dihedral, which is used to provide a natural corrective tendency for crosswinds. It's difficult to design a mach 3.5 spaceship that is also a 70 knot glider.
The test pilot, Mike Melvill, had ample time to abort the flight. He felt confident and in sufficient control to continue the first suborbital flight. Burt and Mike are very close friends and have been since the 1970s. Ground control suggested an abort, but Mike was comfortable with the roll rate. Yes, he's that good. He later commented that it was "kind of cool". Mike was clearly not too upset by the 20+ rolls as he corkscrewed into space, because a minute later he was playing with M&Ms in microgravity.
So don't go throwing around reckless comments about Burt almost getting a test pilot killed. It's a lie, plain and simple. The truth is, Burt Rutan has done almost 400 designs and for decades has consistently averaged flight testing a couple of truly unique aircraft, and now spacecraft, per year. None of his projects have ever resulted in an injury, much less a fatality. The few incidents have all been minor, such as the SS1 test flight where the left landing gear collapsed after a rough landing. Burt Rutan has the best safety record in the industry, while simultaneously doing the most cutting edge designs. He attributes a large part of that safety to an environment that wouldn't be possible in a large bureaucracy, whether in government or big business.
The SS1 roll problem was fixed by simply changing the flight profile and the two subsequent X-Prize flights had no trouble. The dihedral issue will be corrected in SS2, which is probably one reason that SS1 is being retired after accomplishing the X-Prize mission. That, and the fact that it is a very valuable historic spacecraft.
So for anyone keeping score, NASA has lost two shuttles with all crew (14 people total) out of a little over 100 missions, for a little less than a 2% fatality rate. SS1 has been into space three times with no injuries. Safety is a big part of the SS1 design, including the novel "carefree reentry".
There were some uninformed opinions and lame attempts at sick humor prior to the SS1 success. Why do some people need to see the dark side of everything? Why do some people need to comment about things when they are totally clueless?
Suggestion:
1) Read
2) Think
3) THEN write
>> My ultraviolent Linux switch video.
IT IS INTERESTING that a brilliant engineer like Rutan would be moving to a completely new 9 passenger SpaceShip2 instead of putting airframe #1 of SS1 into the Smithsonian and selling hops on her sister ships.Though he does seem to reveal there was an internal discussion...
Flying the design again has nothing to do with any of the previous posts regarding 'history'. Make a fresh copy and put it into service. Unless you're worried it's lack of redundancy makes it unsuitable for non-test pilot passneger flight. Paul Allen may not want to expose himself to some pin-head real estate mogul's wife's tort attorneys.
Or, maybe they feel good to get up and down safely a few times in this frontier expanding design (There where some close calls, after all.) Hughes flew the Spruce Goose once and ordered it mothballed. Some designs proudly push the limits but aren't great for everyday use...
"Knowing everything doesn't help..."
Here's the important part you're probably not getting. The recent initial foray into the privatization of space is NOT trying to carry on in the manner of NASA or any other big government or big business space program. They're starting over completely from scratch, using current technology and developing new technology to make space accessable to everyone. We are in the early crawling stages right now, but as any parent can tell you, kids grow up fast. Soon, we'll be walking, then running. There will be other goals such as altitude records, distance records in parabolic flight, etc. Soon, we'll have orbital flight. Although the SS1 can't withstand reentry at orbital velocities, a lot of the technology from SS1 is applicable to orbital flight. After that, there will be privately owned orbital resorts and microgravity manufacturing plants, and eventually private trips to the moon. Watch it happen in the next twenty years.
Private companies will make very rapid progress and will soon surpass NASA and other government sponsored space programs. The financial incentive exists, as does the technical drive to accomplish these goals. Private enterprise will recapitulate NASA's accomplishments, only much faster and for a lot less money.
Many people fail to see the analogy, but the X-Prize really was just like the Orteig Prize that encouraged the first trans-Atlantic airplane crossing in 1927. We are about to enter the era of space development that is similar to what the 1930s was to the aviation industry in all important respects.
>> My ultraviolent Linux switch video.
Seastead this.
its pretty easy to make a press release - that costs no money. virgin is an interesting company having as many bad ideas as good. branson seems to jump on bandwagons and push the 'maximum publicity' button at any oppertunity.
virgin rail was launched in a blaze of media coverage with branman waving from trains etc. promising the earth. years later fares are much higher and the service seems to be much worse from what i read.
a few years ago i believe he had to sell 49% of virgin atlantic, it was the only thing making any money. needed the cash to pay off debts.
so whatever you do please just dont quote this ludicrous plan (and a ludicrous name- galactic? we havent even got there yet!) and give him more bloody free publicity. only mention it when it becomes a reality.
Second System Syndrome can usually be chalked up to poor project management. Without proper leadership any project can spiral out of control and never reach a conclusion. Poor focus, scope creep, bad testing, a failure to meet the customer's requirements.
Burt Rutan knows how to get what he wants from his people. He's a good leader with a good team. And the part that might make the biggest difference between Scaled and PARC - it's Burt's show. He's always the deciding vote. I'm sure he's kicked a lot of dead weight ideas out of the way in his many years of designing flying craft.
Intelligent enough to save lives?
Simply ridiculous.
Do you know why Challenger exploded?
Summary: Because NASA was not smart. They launched when the conditions were documented out of spec.
Do you know why Columbia burned?
Summary: Because NASA was not smart. They launched and re-entered after engineers had warned about the foam and tiles.
As far as being reasonable about 40 MPH winds on takeoff goes, I've flown planes in those conditions. No problem, all you need is a little skill. Believe me, the guys flying for Rutan have much more skill than I do, as well as much more capable planes. Add to that, surface conditions are largely irrelevant for aircraft that are exploring a flight envelope centered on >50Km altitudes and supersonic speeds.
Good judgement comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgement.
- W. Wriston, former Citibank CEO