2004 MN4 Asteroid Odds Inching Up Again

bfwebster writes "The latest update from NASA now gives 2004 MN4 a 1-in-37 chance (probability of 2.7%) of hitting Earth on April 13, 2029. That's a bump up from the 1-in-46 (2.2%) odds given this weekend and almost a 10x increase in probability from the original 1-in-300 odds announced late last week. Interesting times, indeed."

Comments

Re:2 Interesting Conjectures

[Gogo Dodo]

It's the Near Earth Object Program. Gee, wonder why the server is called neo.

Hmm...

[Sheepdot]

...at the rate these bumps have been going; by April 13th 2029, Slashdot will be reporting a 3876/3877 chance of the asteroid hitting Earth with an estimated 9 out of every 10 stories having to deal with collisions with Near-Earth Objects.

Excuse me if insinuate that this story is starting to get old now. As is the topic itself. Those that want to know are following the story themselves now.

IMHO, this is a cleverly disguised appeal for more funding, and I don't mind getting modded down for telling it as I see it.

This is actually a very small rock.

[Thapa]

I'm watching this thing as closely as I can, but I don't think we're as doomed as we look.

Using an impact calculator that people have quoted in a number of earlier posts, 2004 MN4 (being only .4km wide) will only produce a crater about 4km wide (if it hits land). This is quite small, in fact.

The Chicxulub crater, left by the rock that killed the dinosaurs, is at least 150km in diameter, theoretically left by a rock 10km in diameter.

Essentially, unless you're under it or near the tidal wave, I don't think you have much to worry about from 2004 MN4. But now is a better time than ever to realize we need to work on our planetary defences.

Re:The odds are now at 100%

[LordNimon]

Geez, talk about bad math. I think what you were trying to say is that the odds are either 100% or 0%, and using probability to determine whether a single event will occur is just mental masturbation for physicists.

Re:The odds are now at 100%

[LordNimon]

That's not what 50% means. You're also bad at math. That's the whole point behind probabilities: each of multiple outcomes is not necessarily equally likely.