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2004 MN4 Asteroid Odds Inching Up Again

bfwebster writes "The latest update from NASA now gives 2004 MN4 a 1-in-37 chance (probability of 2.7%) of hitting Earth on April 13, 2029. That's a bump up from the 1-in-46 (2.2%) odds given this weekend and almost a 10x increase in probability from the original 1-in-300 odds announced late last week. Interesting times, indeed."

58 of 697 comments (clear)

  1. Space Soap Opera by daniil · · Score: 5, Funny

    Ladies and gentlemen, may i present the new Slashdot soap opera: Asteroid 2004 MN4!!! That's right -- we have ourselves a new SCO! Watch out, for soon, it'll be demanding $699 license fees from all of you!

    --
    Man is a slave because freedom is difficult, whereas slavery is easy.
    1. Re:Space Soap Opera by tambo · · Score: 3, Funny
      Ladies and gentlemen, may i present the new Slashdot soap opera: Asteroid 2004 MN4!!!

      ...with the requisite theme song of course:

      That's great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane - Lenny Bruce is not afraid. Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn - world serves its own needs, don't misserve your own needs. Feed it up a knock, speed, grunt no, strength no. Ladder structure clatter with fear of height, down height. Wire in a fire, represent the seven games in a government for hire and a combat site. Left her, wasn't coming in a hurry with the furies breathing down your neck. Team by team reporters baffled, trump, tethered crop. Look at that low plane! Fine then. Uh oh, overflow, population, common group, but it'll do. Save yourself, serve yourself. World serves its own needs, listen to your heart bleed. Tell me with the rapture and the reverent in the right - right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright light, feeling pretty psyched.

      It's the end of the world as we know it.
      It's the end of the world as we know it.
      It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

      Six o'clock - TV hour. Don't get caught in foreign tower. Slash and burn, return, listen to yourself churn. Lock him in uniform and book burning, blood letting. Every motive escalate. Automotive incinerate. Light a candle, light a motive. Step down, step down. Watch a heel crush, crush. Uh oh, this means no fear - cavalier. Renegade and steer clear! A tournament, a tournament, a tournament of lies. Offer me solutions, offer me alternatives and I decline.

      It's the end of the world as we know it.
      It's the end of the world as we know it.
      It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

      The other night I tripped a nice continental drift divide. Mount St. Edelite. Leonard Bernstein. Leonid Breshnev, Lenny Bruce and Lester Bangs. Birthday party, cheesecake, jelly bean, boom! You symbiotic, patriotic, slam, but neck, right? Right.

      It's the end of the world as we know it.
      It's the end of the world as we know it.
      It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine...fine...

      (It's time I had some time alone)

      --
      Computer over. Virus = very yes.
    2. Re:Space Soap Opera by daniil · · Score: 2, Funny
      If these ain't signs of the apocalypse coming, then heck if I could tell ya what are.

      I can't remember the rest (it's been a while since i last read The Lesser Known Signs of the Apocalypse), but i think number three was A Rain of Poorly Designed Kittens.

      --
      Man is a slave because freedom is difficult, whereas slavery is easy.
    3. Re:Space Soap Opera by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      The asteroid needs it own icon. Now.

    4. Re:Space Soap Opera by slam+smith · · Score: 2, Funny

      Nah, after this baby slams into the earth, the only currency that will be worth anything at all are cans of baked beans.

    5. Re:Space Soap Opera by nizo · · Score: 2, Funny

      What is the international symbol for "Start looting now"?

  2. The odds are now at 100% by waynegoode · · Score: 5, Funny
    The odds of it hitting Earth are now at 100%.

    Or, if you prefer, they are now at 1 in 1,000,000.

    This edition of Fun With URLs has been brought to you courtesy of an overly trusting NASA webmaster.

    1. Re:The odds are now at 100% by glomph · · Score: 4, Funny

      Yeah, Ron the Webmaster is overly trusting, he has his email address directly linked on that 'probability' page. Guess he was trying for maximum impact....

    2. Re:The odds are now at 100% by beatdown · · Score: 1, Funny

      It gets even worse

  3. Doomed...? by Boronx · · Score: 5, Funny

    Will Bruce Willis even by alive by then?

    1. Re:Doomed...? by KUHurdler · · Score: 5, Funny

      No, the climax of the whole movie is that he was already dead. That's why only the kid could see him.

      --
      Fix Your Own TV - RiddledTV.com Avoid the Landfill
  4. 2004 MN4 Asteroid Odds Keep Inch Up Again by teshuvah · · Score: 3, Funny

    I are not under stand what you is try ing to said hear.

  5. What? by mskfisher · · Score: 1, Funny

    http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

    We've killed Neo! Now we're doomed for sure!

    --
    0x0D 0x0A
  6. By how things are going... by DarkHelmet · · Score: 5, Funny
    That gives slashdotters...

    24 more years to try and get laid.

    --
    /^[A-Z0-9._%+-]+@[A-Z0-9.-]+\.[A-Z]{2,4}$/i
    1. Re:By how things are going... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      I will be getting plenty laid in my asteroid proof bunker everyone will want to be in. Well I better get back to digging now...

    2. Re:By how things are going... by isa-kuruption · · Score: 5, Funny

      Stop flaming and/or giving us false hope!

  7. Anarchy! by Lussarn · · Score: 5, Funny

    When can we start the looting?

  8. Assuming everyone dies... by KaiBeezy · · Score: 4, Funny


    this is more likely to kill you than ANY OTHER death due to injury in your lifetime!

    Odds of Death Due to Injury, National Safety Council

  9. Tinfoil hat by KingDaveRa · · Score: 2, Funny

    A tinfoil hat isn't gunna stand a chance against this thing.

    1. Re:Tinfoil hat by Rick.C · · Score: 2, Funny
      A tinfoil hat isn't gunna stand a chance against this thing.

      True. For this you need copper foil.

      --
      You were 80% angel, 10% demon. The rest was hard to explain. - Over The Rhine
      "Math in a song is good."-Linford
  10. Re:April 13, 2029 by glitch! · · Score: 5, Funny

    Would this be Friday the 13th?

    That's right, Hot Fudge Sundae arrives on a Friday...

    --
    A dingo ate my sig...
  11. When to Worry by mikejz84 · · Score: 4, Funny

    I would start to worried if astronomers suddenly started to buy a lot of Boeing and Lockheed stock.

  12. No fear.... by wpiman · · Score: 1, Funny

    I just called up Bruce Willis and he said he will take care of it....

  13. Friday the 13th by waynegoode · · Score: 2, Funny
    According to my Windows OS calendar, it is Friday. What are the odds of that?

    (Uh, 1 in 7, better than the odds of it hitting Earth.)

  14. Re:Friday the 13th, part xxxxx by 14erCleaner · · Score: 5, Funny

    On the bright side, this does solve the 2038 rollover of the 32-bit time_t.

    --
    Have you read my blog lately?
  15. HA! by jrwillis · · Score: 4, Funny

    1 in 37? Who'd be dumb enough to worry with odds like that?! Now excuse me, I need to go buy a lottery ticket for this week.

    --
    Keep Austin Weird!
  16. OMG by ikkonoishi · · Score: 2, Funny

    Uh oh. We slashdotted nasa.

    I think that might be a federal crime!

  17. Re:April 13, 2029 by HermDog · · Score: 2, Funny

    That would be "Fridae," of course.

    --
    JADBP
  18. I really appreciate your sig line more by way2trivial · · Score: 5, Funny

    due to your EXCELLENT math skills.

    --
    every day http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Random
  19. Re:Early impact? by JaffaKREE · · Score: 2, Funny

    People, please stop slashdotting Nasa. It makes them look even worse. Deadly asteroids, THEN server explosions ?

  20. Re:April 13, 2029 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    How about 'calendar -t 13.04.2029'

    Apr 13 Thomas Jefferson born, 1743
    Apr 13 Laotian New Year (3 days) in Laos
    Apr 13 National Day in Chad
    Apr 13 Songkron Day in Thailand
    Apr 13 Aujourd'hui, c'est la St(e) Ida.
    Apr 13 N'oubliez pas les Herménégilde !
    Apr 13 Earth destroyed

  21. This is a good thing by CodeWheeney · · Score: 2, Funny

    No we don't have to worry about systems with time_t defined as a 32bit signed int rolling over in 2038.

    --
    C8H10N4O2 | Developer > Code
  22. Re:Mainstream coverage by SpaceLifeForm · · Score: 5, Funny
    Well of course. Until they figure out a way to make some money off of it.

    Asteroid insurance anyone?

    --
    You are being MICROattacked, from various angles, in a SOFT manner.
  23. Sound betting advice by nizo · · Score: 4, Funny

    If you ever get a chance to bet on an asteroid wiping out humanity, make sure you bet that it won't; otherwise even if you win you can't collect.

  24. Form 1040-MN4 by ScentCone · · Score: 2, Funny

    So, that's a 97.29% chance that you'll still have to file your taxes two days later.

    --
    Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
  25. Crash by pete-classic · · Score: 4, Funny

    And I thought the last crash of '29 was depressing.

    -Peter

  26. Re:So what happens if reaches 100%? by mikejz84 · · Score: 2, Funny

    I think the US should pay to take care of this little problem. It may cost a trillion dollars, but it is well worth another 50 years of being able to rub the rest of the world in the fact that we saved their asses. (again)

  27. Re:So.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    I thought that Slashdotters were suppose to be a relatively intelligent crowd.

    Slashdotters intelligent? Don't you read the comments in here?

  28. Everyone just needs to file Exempt in 2028. by madshot · · Score: 2, Funny

    I think I'm going to claim exempt for 2028.. because their is a 1 and 37 chance that I won't have to pay up.

    --
    Obama = Socialism.
  29. What time of day? by ch-chuck · · Score: 2, Funny

    I hope it's after noon - I have an important 10 o'clock meeting that morning.

    --
    try { do() || do_not(); } catch (JediException err) { yoda(err); }
  30. Chain asteroid by iMaple · · Score: 5, Funny

    How long do we have to wait for this

    Hi
    I am Prince Okabaoakauu of of the microbial strain found on Asteroid Mn4. We control the motion of our asteroid and can divert it safely if the earthlings wish so. However we are not sure if the earthlings(a.k.a. you) want a collision or not. Hence to help us decide , please forward this mail to 12 people within 1 hour of receiving the mail if you do not want a collision. You will also get a free mobile phone and 2 Ipods. If you do NOT immediately forward this email we will assume that you want the collision.
    Thanks

    I JUST RECVD THIS MAIL, PLS FWD IT TO ALL UR FRIENDS

  31. We should all be thanking our Gods... by HotNeedleOfInquiry · · Score: 2, Funny

    That there's not a Beowulf cluster of these things on the way.

    --
    "Eve of Destruction", it's not just for old hippies anymore...
  32. Re:April 13, 2029 by FreeUser · · Score: 2, Funny

    Well, assuming you're running a modern operating system (Linux, OS X, FreeBSD) ...


    $ cal 2029
    [...]
    April
    Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7
    8 9 10 11 12 13 14
    15 16 17 18 19 20 21
    22 23 24 25 26 27 28
    29 30
    [...]


    So yeah, we're all going to die on Friday the 13th (of April), 2029 ... if this thing hits (and we don't do anything about it in the next 25 years).

    All praise superstition ...

    --
    The Future of Human Evolution: Autonomy
  33. Re:We're all gonna die! by glassjaw+rocks · · Score: 4, Funny

    Here's something odd. April 13, 2029 is a Friday. Friday the 13th is the end of the world.

    --
    -gjr
  34. Re:April 13, 2029 by bluenirve · · Score: 2, Funny

    Wait, I found a slashdot fake! The guy's running in root, so he can't be a real geek.

  35. Re:Okay... Mars Colony? by robogymnast · · Score: 2, Funny

    1) Get off our island earth and spread. Mars?
    2) Create powerful space based energy weapons to destroy this big rock.


    3) Profit?

    --
    unzip ; strip ; touch ; grep ; find ; finger ; mount ; fsck ; more ; yes ; fsck ; umount ; sleep
  36. Re:A thought on blowing it up with a warhead by Chyeld · · Score: 2, Funny

    Ok, how else do you plan on getting a League of Super Friends formed? Think people, THINK!

    In reality, I would hope whatever plan they would use would break it into small enough pieces that the majority would burn up in the atmosphere.

  37. Whatever you do by Hyksos · · Score: 2, Funny

    Don't Panic

  38. The next X-Prize by kevinx · · Score: 2, Funny

    it can be the next X-Prize. First one to destroy the rock wins.

    On a lighter note.. So, what do you think will kill us first, this asteroid or global warming?

  39. Re:Friday the 13th, part xxxxx by ViolentGreen · · Score: 4, Funny

    Plus, if you addd the digits in 13, you get 4 (April being the fourth month of the year.) On top of that if, you subtract 4 (month) and 13 (day) from 2029 and add those digits, you get 5 which is amazingly the same number that you get when you sum the digits in 202 and subtract that from 9.

    Point being, well actually I have no point.

    --
    Not everything is analogous to cars. Car analogies rarely work.
  40. Girls in the neighborhood by tekrat · · Score: 2, Funny

    Just think of the possibilities. You could build a asteroid-proof shelter in your backyard, and then, when it's clear that the human race has only hours left to live, you invite all the cute chicks from your neighborhood into your shelter, so that can ... ehem... repopulate the Earth.

    Finally, slashdot readers get laid.

    This would almost make it worth wiping out civilization as we know it.

    --
    If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
  41. Three days ahead of the tax deadline. by Dr.+Mu · · Score: 3, Funny

    The IRS income tax deadline in 2029 will be Monday, April 16th. I think, perhaps, I'll file for an extension that year.

  42. Impact effect of a grain of salt. by JeanPaulBob · · Score: 4, Funny
    Numbers should, of course, be taken with a grain of salt
    As you suggest, I ran the figures for a grain of salt through the impact effects calculator.

    Specifically, I used a 0.0003 meter grain of salt with a density of 2165 kg/m^3 (suggested by the I'm Feeling Lucky result for how big is a grain of salt) at 17km/s and 45 degree impact, and dropped it in 1000 meters of water.

    Results
    • Impact Energy: This projectile is so small that it burns up during atmospheric traverse
    • Crater Formed in Seafloor: Are you kidding?
    • Earthquake: It burns up in the freakin' atmosphere!
    • Radiant Flux at 100 km: You're an idiot.
    I really don't see what you're so worried about.
  43. New Reality TV Series. by Alkaiser · · Score: 2, Funny

    "Survivor: Asteroid Impact"

    You compete with 20 others to get a spot in the emergency bunkers.

    No holds barred.

    --
    Netjak.com independent reviews of domestic & import video ga
  44. Re:Impact energy by Broiler · · Score: 3, Funny

    I knew it! That is why I sit in my shack in Wyoming writing manifestos!

    --
    My sigs offend the max # of people all over the world, regardless of race, religion, color, sex or creed. It's a gift.
  45. Free Tacos? by telemonster · · Score: 3, Funny

    Does everyone in the world get a free Taco if it hits a Taco Bell?

    --
    Southeastern Virginia REPRESENT!
  46. Re:Impact energy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    Well then, you are sitting on top of a large volcano, just ready to blow.

  47. Re:April 13, 2029 by Junior+J.+Junior+III · · Score: 2, Funny

    Nah, he's a real geek. He's running in root on someone else's box.

    --
    You see? You see? Your stupid minds! Stupid! Stupid!