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2004 MN4 Asteroid Odds Inching Up Again
bfwebster writes "The latest update from NASA now gives 2004 MN4 a 1-in-37 chance (probability of 2.7%) of hitting Earth on April 13, 2029. That's a bump up from the 1-in-46 (2.2%) odds given this weekend and almost a 10x increase in probability from the original 1-in-300 odds announced late last week. Interesting times, indeed."
Just because the probability keeps going up, it doesn't mean that we are getting increasingly sure that the asteroid will hit Earth. Suppose that the asteroid were going to come close to Earth without hitting it. At first, the impact probability would appear low since the "window" of orbits allowed from the data would be wide. As we got better observations, however, this window would shrink, but the Earth would stay inside it since it's near the center. Thus, for a time the probability of impact would go up, since the Earth would take up a greater percentage of the window. Eventually, though, the window would shrink past the Earth and the probability would go down again.
I suspect that this is what will happen. Could easily be wrong, though.
Snarkiness is inversely proportional to wisdom because it emphasizes feeling right rather than being right.
Try a tsunami about 500x times bigger almost a mile high traveling 20 miles inland destroying everything in its site.
Keep in mind 90% of the population lives within 100 miles of the coast.
Devestating indeed.
http://saveie6.com/
See, I think that there's a difference and a gift in disguise here.
The reason why we don't have a system to deflect asteroids right now is because asteroids are one of those things that "could happen" in the far off future.
It's like smoking. It's not guaranteed to kill you, and nobody drops dead after a single puff. Some smokers live really long lives. So smoking is viewed as something that's "bad for you", not an instant death sentence.
Therefore, we've got a lot of people who smoke in the world.
However, pulling out a shotgun, pointing it at your face, and pulling the trigger is unquestionably lethal.
Therefore, the only people who do that are people who really want to die.
The difference is that we don't always think about things that *might* cause harm, but we always think about things that *will* cause harm.
This is just one of the many ways that the human brain is a little screwed up about risk management. It worked when we were on the plains of Africa and needed to evade predators and manage to survive, but it doesn't necessarily hold up now.
Now, the blessing in disguize is that a quarter century is very much long enough to figure out what to do. Remember, we've got more than enough knowlege to do it -- computers to plot trajectories, a variety of tested and untested propulsion and power systems, techniques, etc. In the quarter of a century timespan, we may just need to paint one side white to provide the push. So, in some sense, it's even easier than trying to go from nothing to the moon landing.
But what we lack, like most things in space, is a feeling of urgency to really do something about it. Thus, this is a blessing in disguize. If they give it a decent possibility of really hitting Earth, 25 years in the future, we've got time to do something about it in ways that if they said that it'll probably hit tomorrow we won't.
Same way I know several folk who, when their doctors told them that they were going to be dead in x years if they didn't quit smoking, were able to go cold turkey.
Gentoo Sucks
Last time I took part in a discussion about asteroid impacts, it was suggested that people who are rich enough would be able to simply buy their way off the planet before the disaster strikes. As in buy with money.
Think about it. There's a gigantic rock hurtling toward Earth. There are only enough spaceships (let's say) to take 1,000 people off the surface. All life as we know it on Earth is about to be destroyed. Do you: A) Get on your spaceship and get the hell out of there, or B) Accept pieces of paper with dead presidents printed on them in return for allowing other people to get off the planet?
Even if you survived the ensuing destruction, what good would those little pieces of paper be?
The rich sometimes seem to think they can buy their way out of any problem, but the total destruction of Earth isn't something that money will save you from.