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2004 MN4 Probably Won't Kill Us

Posted by timothy on from the this-wrecks-a-bunch-of-pick-up-lines dept.

Xshare writes "It's now official. NASA's Near Earth Objects page lists 2004 MN4, the asteroid that's been covered on slashdot recently, as having a 1 in 56,000 chance of hitting earth, and even then only in 2037. It seems that earth was near the edge of the cone of probability of when it could go. As the cone kept closing, the probability of hitting earth grew, but it kept getting closer to the edge. It's now outside the cone, and we can be safe."

10 of 389 comments (clear)

  1. Too Bad by Rura+Penthe · · Score: 5, Funny

    Now how will I justify my unwillingness to accomplish anything in life.

  2. The sky is falling ... by bighoov · · Score: 5, Funny

    ... the sky is not falling. Your choice.

    1. Re:The sky is falling ... by Lord_Breetai · · Score: 5, Funny

      It was both, but we measured the outcome. ^_^

      P.S.: And I for one, welcome our pedantic overlords.

      --
      "You are only young once, but you can be immature forever." -www.animemusicvideos.org
    2. Re:The sky is falling ... by ryochiji · · Score: 5, Funny

      It turns out that probability page takes practically any number as a GET variable, so if you want, you can send a URL to your friends saying there's a 99% chance of impact:

      http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?9.9e-01

      (They might fix it, so who knows how long the above URL will work...)

      --

      ---
      Open Source Shirts
  3. Good by Neil+Blender · · Score: 5, Funny

    That means it will make us stronger.

  4. But then again.... by yorugua · · Score: 5, Funny

    ... maybe it'll hit us anyway. NASA is looking at whether the metric or imperial systems was used all along the calculations. Stay tuned...

  5. how many other disasters in the 2030's? by ChipMonk · · Score: 5, Funny

    Between the Mayan calendar, the Unix epoch, and now this, I don't see how any of us will make it to 2040 alive.

  6. Lies, lies lies! We are going to die! by kaedemichi255 · · Score: 5, Funny

    The odds are still not good! The chances of someone winning the lottery is like 1 in a few million/billion! Yet there's almost always a winner! OMG WE'RE GONNA DIE!!!

  7. The Cone by KidSock · · Score: 5, Funny

    So what is the probability of the earth being hit by this "cone"?

  8. Re:Not even in 2037 by Neil+Blender · · Score: 5, Funny

    That is the cumulative impact probability. The probability of impact in 2037 is actually 1 in 526,316,000 chance. The more likely one is in 2044 and that is 1 in 83,000 chance.

    Reading your post, I can feel even safer since I realized that if you do the math (83,000 * 526,316,000) there is only a 1 in 43,684,200,000,000 that it will hit us in both 2037 and 2044.