Slashdot Mirror
2004 MN4 Probably Won't Kill Us
Xshare writes "It's now official. NASA's Near Earth Objects page lists 2004 MN4, the asteroid that's been covered on slashdot recently, as having a 1 in 56,000 chance of hitting earth, and even then only in 2037. It seems that earth was near the edge of the cone of probability of when it could go. As the cone kept closing, the probability of hitting earth grew, but it kept getting closer to the edge. It's now outside the cone, and we can be safe."
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Quote:
So how exactly did we go from a 1 in 37 chance to a 1 in 56000 chance in a few hours? My guess is that slashdot submitters was posting meaningless statistics and editors were letting them through in order to sensationalize the issue.
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Not true - I looked at the NASA website a few hours ago and the probability was indeed listed at 2.7%
However, I am also interested in how we went from 1/37 to 1/56000 in a few hours.
See the pictures on the official Nasa sites.
Probability: 1.8%...
No, seriously: I just like the impact probability page at http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?; put an arbitrary number and link it as an official and validated probability to your /. posts.
As the cone kept closing, the probability of hitting earth grew, but it kept getting closer to the edge.
This tells us nothing, since it is true of every point inside the cone as it closes.
The most rabid believers in American Exceptionalism are the exact same people whose policies are destroying it.
earlier today the odds were about even
Impact Probability: 0.5
50.000000000% chance of Earth impact
or
1 in 2.0 chance
or
50.00000000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth
There is much cruelty in the universe, John.
Yeah, we seem to have the tour map.