Slashdot Mirror
2004 MN4 Probably Won't Kill Us
Xshare writes "It's now official. NASA's Near Earth Objects page lists 2004 MN4, the asteroid that's been covered on slashdot recently, as having a 1 in 56,000 chance of hitting earth, and even then only in 2037. It seems that earth was near the edge of the cone of probability of when it could go. As the cone kept closing, the probability of hitting earth grew, but it kept getting closer to the edge. It's now outside the cone, and we can be safe."
Now how will I justify my unwillingness to accomplish anything in life.
I already ordered the T-Shirt!
Stop the world; I need to get off.
... the sky is not falling. Your choice.
That means it will make us stronger.
... maybe it'll hit us anyway. NASA is looking at whether the metric or imperial systems was used all along the calculations. Stay tuned...
I wasn't exactly looking forward to the 30+ years of tossing and turning in bed at night.
instead i'll toss and turn over what the prez is doing to the economy
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
I can cancel my bomb shelter purchase now...
:\
It was gonna be a first if I didn't hit reply so quick
Is this whole thing a fake, like the Christmas lights?
Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
Slashdot has editors? Who knew...
Give a man fire, and you warm him for the night. Set a man on fire, and you warm him for the rest of his life.
Between the Mayan calendar, the Unix epoch, and now this, I don't see how any of us will make it to 2040 alive.
Then why is there a round shadow surrounding my house getting bigger and bigger and... [CONNECTION LOST]
Unknown host pong.
The odds are still not good! The chances of someone winning the lottery is like 1 in a few million/billion! Yet there's almost always a winner! OMG WE'RE GONNA DIE!!!
OMGWTFBBQ!!1 *splat*
January 19, 2038 the date when 32 bit time runs out or is that overflows?
At least we can hope these two don't do a remake that year. That would save the planet from one disaster. Of course, that potential disaster probably wouldn't actually kill anyone. It would be more likely to make hundreds of thousands of people sick.
"...and we can be safe."
That end should have been:
"...and we can be safe, probably. Maybe. Perhaps. Or not. But possibly. Who knows. Until the next article."
They have confirmed the probability of hit to be 100% and don't want us to know! (* puts on a tin foil covered kevlar helmet *) You better not cancel your bomb shelter!
-ItsME
Oh well, guess we'll have to find another excuse to sing
"Super comet fragment impact extra-large explosions"
Oh well, it's a damn asteroid anyways.
Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
My only chance of getting laid, gone! What? 1 in 56000 odds? I'm back in the game!
That's too much of a chance for me. I'm heading to the fallout shelter, with my generator, my guns and all that canned food I stocked up on at the end of 1999.....
So what is the probability of the earth being hit by this "cone"?
That is the cumulative impact probability. The probability of impact in 2037 is actually 1 in 526,316,000 chance. The more likely one is in 2044 and that is 1 in 83,000 chance.
Reading your post, I can feel even safer since I realized that if you do the math (83,000 * 526,316,000) there is only a 1 in 43,684,200,000,000 that it will hit us in both 2037 and 2044.
Whoo hoo I'll be at least 85 by then and I can ride the bus for cheap :-)
and maybe mcdonalds will still give free coffree t seniors then too.
The truth about Led Zep should never be told on
I thought there was - it is disguised as "+1, Funny"
(I was going to suggest a "+1, Insightful", but I don't think anyone would fall for that one.)
news.google.com search
Yea, that's right.
Figures.
-S
--- What parts of "shall make no law", "shall not be infringed", and "shall not be violated" don't you understand?
what, it's going to back up and try a second time?
There is much cruelty in the universe, John.
Yeah, we seem to have the tour map.
Sure, maybe it won't hit the earth *directly*, but it may bounce off the moon, richochet off Mars, then split in 4 by hitting Europa, and one of the four pieces will smash into the Sun, triggering a huge magnetic storm which will make all spoons and forks gouge us all in the eye. Nobody has mathematically ruled that out yet. And if they do, just give it to the global-warming-does-not-exist group to rework the report. They're good.
Table-ized A.I.
So, to sum things up from all the previously high-rated comments on the multiple /. articles regarding the object: you still have plenty of time to get laid, fix the unix time epoch issue, and finish coding Duke Nukem Forever.
Yes, it's going to fire its nuclear engine and head towards us anytime now.
Similar logic to ...
There is a 1 in 1,000,000 chance that someone on the same plane as you has a bomb.
There is a 1 in 25,000,000,000 that two people on the same plane have a bomb.
So always take a bomb with you on the plane, then you're pretty sure you're safe.
DarkMantle I been bored, so I started a blog.
98% of all accidents happen within a 5 mile radius of a persons home.. so I moved.
"You lied to me! There is a Swansea!"
No need to wait, one object hit Earth just a moment ago (I dropped my keys.)