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Windows Media Center Edition vs. The World
sam_christ writes "An article in today's Investor's Business Daily (Google cache) and an article by TV industry pundit/predictions-huckster Philip Swann say the same thing: that Microsoft's Media Center Edition will be a big flop in 2005. Meanwhile, from what I can tell much more powerful alternatives to Microsoft's MCE bloatware are thriving: commercial products like Snapstream (see their 6-tuner Medusa PVR built for about $1200), Showshifter and open-source freeware like Mediaportal and MythTV. From what I've read about Microsoft MCE and all of its DRM and content restrictions, I have to agree with both of these articles."
Winner: The World.
The true monopoly here is the cable and satellite companies.
They can package their services and rent them out cheaper than any of us can buy the hardware.
A good MPEG 2 capture card costs $150. Hard drive/CPU/video output is at least $200.
Heck, I can get PVR service for $8 a month.
As much as I would rather do-it-myself... it's hard to beat a rock-stable $8/month service.
Windows XP Media Center Edition, a specific media center product, is a flop, and the articles you link to - which you say you agree with - talk generically about consumers not thinking about PCs in the living room or of computers as entertainment devices, but you think other commercial media center products - which are embodied by the idea of PCs in the living room or of computers as entertainment devices - are "thriving"? Especially when the articles - which you agree with - say that the problem with media centers is that, since they're a computer - a whole other computer, mind you - they're more complex, and normal[1] consumers will never even consider them as an entertainment center component?
Is there a disconnect here?
Actually, aside from whether or not it will be a commercial failure, Windows XP Media Center Edition 2005 actually works famously (have you ever tried it?), MUCH better than previous iterations of the product, and it supports multiple tuners (i.e., >2), lets you archive your recordings to CD or DVD, can support transmitting its content to any other PC, media center extender, or Xbox, etc. - not to mention that for a NORMAL person, it's essentially an integral part of Windows, gets updated along with the OS, and represents a major product from the majority platform, etc.
And, by the way, I absolutely loathe Microsoft and its business practices over the years in general, but let's at least be realistic here: you can't "agree" with those articles, especially Swann's, and then say that other media centers are "thriving".
[1] "Normal" here means, like, actually a normal person. Not slashdot readers. Not engadget readers. And frankly, not even savvy computer users.
It's a fact. Most people are sheep and will go along with anything forced to them, but DRM acceptance has it's limits. I know a lot of people who asked me for help on making their DVD players zone-free, for instance.
If you restrict usage too much, people will seek for alternatives. For DRM done (arguably) right, check Apple and iTunes.
Microsoft v1.0 products don't always have to make money. They are often aimed at gaining market share, leveraging related product areas where Microsoft is already dominant, learning what the customers really want, and generally harassing the competition as a prelude to crushing them with a version 2 or 3 product.
My Karma: ran over your Dogma
StrawberryFrog
First of all, MythTV and Mediaportal are not competitors. Not yet. For them to be true competitors, they need to just work out of the box. Don't get me wrong, they're great products, but they're not true competitors in the average consumer market, just like Gentoo Linux is not a competitor with Windows XP.
And the other two products mentioned are not real competitors. If you hate "Microsoft bloatware", these are not the products for you. From the Snapstream Beyond TV System Requirements page:
From the Showshifter System Requirements page:
It doesn't get much more Microsoft-centric than that.
If Media Center Edition fails, it will be because of price and competition from the cable companies, not because of competing software. Users who buy media center PCs will stick with Windows Media CEnter Edition, because that's what it'll come with. Just like people stick with XP Home, because that's what came on their computers.
Consumers want something that just works. Hobbyists, enthusiasts, and power users may be interested in picking their own TV tuner card, and setting up MythTV, but they do not form a large percentage of the market. You have people now who have Tivos because they "just work". Tivo made something that looks like a VCR and has a remote, and that (combined with cable and satellite companies giving them away for free) more than anything is what will kill windows MCE.
From what I've read about Microsoft MCE and all of its DRM and content restrictions, I have to agree with both of these articles.
The average consumer (again, they're the ones who influence the market, not us) doesn't care about DRM, yet. They can play their CDs in the car or on their stereo - it doesn't matter if they can't rip them to MP3.
However, ironically, MCE may be the thing that wakes up Joe Consumer to the dangers of DRM. If this doesn't, the broadcast flag of HDTV might. Currently, if Joe Consumer misses a show, he can stick a tape in the VCR. And even tape the game, despite the NFL telling him not to. When he fires up his Media Center PC, and hits record, and gets a message saying "You are not allowed to do this", there's going to be a huge backlash. But we're not there yet.
There is no sig, there is only Zuul.
There is a market for people who would want to digitally edit tv content for various purposes - and with iLife the Apple is the perfect platform to do that on. I think that puts them in such a legal mindfield that they don't want to go there. Microsoft DRMs the hell out of the feeds you save in order to keep the industry at bay, and Apple would pretty much have to do the exact same thing in order to keep the content industries appeased. Apple may be profitable, but one thing that could utterly destroy Apple is to be on the losing end of a multibillion dollar lawsuit.
I'm just waiting for the first Media Center Worm article on /.
next up: worm brad corkscrew code
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
I did the math and tried to come up with a good pc solution using myth tv. My requirements were a small case that would fit in my entertainment cabinet and semi old cheap hardware. The tv card winds up being the most expensive component $150 for a hardware mpeg encoder solution. To do it right, you are looking at about $400+ total system pricetag. That's using bottom basement pc components and top of the line pvr card. A replaytv unit costs $50 and a 12$/mo subscription or $250 lifetime. Which comes out cheaper then the mythtv unit. It provides many of the features you would see on a full blown media center type application since it networks with other replaytv units. You can run your pc as a replaytv unit and serve it shows, etc. All in all.. I found it to be the best deal; something that just works and the family can enjoy. There is fun factor to building the mytv unit..but if you are building it to be cost effective then you have to look beyond the alure of the free software.
You know, it's not clear that movies will follow the same track as music.
* Record labels make money by selling albums over a relatively long period of time.
* You only need one or two good singles to sell an album.
* They push singles through the commercial, but not-for-pay radio [does MTV actually show music videos anymore?]
* Actual concert performances profit the band, not the record label
* They have *always* had to deal with the possibility of taping-off-radio and taping-off-CD
* Movies are much more expensive to make than albums. And probably riskier creatively.
* Movie studios make a bunch of money on live performances in movie theatres. They will hesitate to dissipate that by releasing simultaneously to consumer digital. (Although there are huge advantages to digital transmission to theaters.)
* They make a second chunk of money selling hard copy DVDs *once the first run revenue* is tapped out.
* Finally, once the DVD stream is largely tapped out, they'll make a chunk of money selling the TV broadcast rights.
* For now, the primary medium is heavy, bulky, film prints on reels, which are hard to pirate, except through sucky camcorder taping.
The whole rhythm of release and commercial structure is different for these two industries. Probably, they'll make the transition to digital quite differently.
Non-specialized hardware. It is widely known that specialized hardware blows the doors off a PC while often costing less. They've learned on their mistake with XBox, and XBox 2 will be a highly specialized platform. They may learn the same thing about Media centers, and turn it into a specialized platform also, simply to bring the prices down from their currently stratospheric level. Viable price point for Media Center is IMO $500-600.
Actually, Grandpa will get pissed, and not buy any more PPV events. I've known enough people (both older and my age) that have the opinion, if this doesn't work they way it is "supposed to" (in this case, Grandpa has recorded off of the cable since he had a VCR), and "they" won't fix it, then "they" won't get any more business from that person.
Beware of Sleestak
People like to bitch. It's both a sport and a way to vent. But in the end, these vocalizations mean very little. Grandpa *will* pay the price because he wants to see the game. We see it every day: As much as people like to bitch about the Record Industry, CDs continue to sell in rocord numbers. People gripe about spending $3 plus at Starbucks, but they do it anyway. $200 sneakers fly out of the stores, and we are quite willing to spend $3 to 6 for a bag of sliced and fried potatos. As humand, we like to bitch, but as consumers, we pay up because we want all the toys.
"Who are in control, they are not in control of anything - they don't even control themselves!" - Glen Beck