Slashdot Mirror
Windows Media Center Edition vs. The World
sam_christ writes "An article in today's Investor's Business Daily (Google cache) and an article by TV industry pundit/predictions-huckster Philip Swann say the same thing: that Microsoft's Media Center Edition will be a big flop in 2005. Meanwhile, from what I can tell much more powerful alternatives to Microsoft's MCE bloatware are thriving: commercial products like Snapstream (see their 6-tuner Medusa PVR built for about $1200), Showshifter and open-source freeware like Mediaportal and MythTV. From what I've read about Microsoft MCE and all of its DRM and content restrictions, I have to agree with both of these articles."
Winner: The World.
The true monopoly here is the cable and satellite companies.
They can package their services and rent them out cheaper than any of us can buy the hardware.
A good MPEG 2 capture card costs $150. Hard drive/CPU/video output is at least $200.
Heck, I can get PVR service for $8 a month.
As much as I would rather do-it-myself... it's hard to beat a rock-stable $8/month service.
Windows XP Media Center Edition, a specific media center product, is a flop, and the articles you link to - which you say you agree with - talk generically about consumers not thinking about PCs in the living room or of computers as entertainment devices, but you think other commercial media center products - which are embodied by the idea of PCs in the living room or of computers as entertainment devices - are "thriving"? Especially when the articles - which you agree with - say that the problem with media centers is that, since they're a computer - a whole other computer, mind you - they're more complex, and normal[1] consumers will never even consider them as an entertainment center component?
Is there a disconnect here?
Actually, aside from whether or not it will be a commercial failure, Windows XP Media Center Edition 2005 actually works famously (have you ever tried it?), MUCH better than previous iterations of the product, and it supports multiple tuners (i.e., >2), lets you archive your recordings to CD or DVD, can support transmitting its content to any other PC, media center extender, or Xbox, etc. - not to mention that for a NORMAL person, it's essentially an integral part of Windows, gets updated along with the OS, and represents a major product from the majority platform, etc.
And, by the way, I absolutely loathe Microsoft and its business practices over the years in general, but let's at least be realistic here: you can't "agree" with those articles, especially Swann's, and then say that other media centers are "thriving".
[1] "Normal" here means, like, actually a normal person. Not slashdot readers. Not engadget readers. And frankly, not even savvy computer users.
Snapstream? Been there, done that, and found that it's even worse bloatware than what our friends in Redmond put out. Maybe it's changed by now (it's been a year or two for me), but I doubt it - if you have a company that seems to value bloat (for whatever reason), it's unlikely that future versions will contain less of it.
quidquid latine dictum sit altum videtur.
It's a fact. Most people are sheep and will go along with anything forced to them, but DRM acceptance has it's limits. I know a lot of people who asked me for help on making their DVD players zone-free, for instance.
If you restrict usage too much, people will seek for alternatives. For DRM done (arguably) right, check Apple and iTunes.
Face it, Apple does this shit right. It would be TiVo-easy, probably easier, dead sexy to look at and would integrate with your iPod and desktop or laptop for on-demand streaming. And the best part is...It Would Just Work(tm).
Everyone said, "No one will buy an iPod! Are you crazy?" and now it's the geek-chic accessory of darn near everyone. Why wouldn't a PVR/DVR from Apple be the same? Once it's on enough episodes of Cribs or put into enough cars on Pimp My Ride everyone will want one.
IMO people who are tech savvy who would be more inclined towards a PC based system (as opposed to an appliance like TiVo) will be non-plussed by the infelxibility and restrictions in MPC.
The "sweet spot" that MS is targetting, that I'm not sure exists as a viable market is the consumer that wants to run their media on their single PC. Figure the odds that the person ready to control their entertainment with a PC has only one PC.
That said, I agree that the cost of prebuilt MCE systems is too high. I think what we need to see is scaled down systems in A/V cases that cost around 999$. I've priced out building my own systems and they can be built well below this price on Newegg, so I would think that a PC manufacturer should at least be able to come close.
In regard to the other packages out there...I had nothing but problems with BeyondTV and Sage, but it was mostly due to lack of support for my ATI AIW card. One thing I did notice in the process, though, was that MCE had much simpler and more intuitive interfaces than these other applications. Frankly, I think that an average user would not even consider messing with one of these programs when they could buy an MCE box all configured and ready to go.
"The day Microsoft makes a product that doesn't suck is the day they make a vacuum cleaner."
Microsoft v1.0 products don't always have to make money. They are often aimed at gaining market share, leveraging related product areas where Microsoft is already dominant, learning what the customers really want, and generally harassing the competition as a prelude to crushing them with a version 2 or 3 product.
My Karma: ran over your Dogma
StrawberryFrog
In other words, you haven't seen or used it yourself.
Neither has the author of TFA.
You all hate MSFT, and want to see them fail in the home. And this guy is your hero because he predicts that MS sucks. That's all fine and good.
But remember Sun Tsu's first and most important rule of war: Know your enemy.
The most rabid zealots show again and again that they have no fucking idea what MSFT products can do, or how they work.
That said, MCE's actually pretty well put together. It's far beyond MythTV, especially when it comes to hardware support.
And the DRM is on the CONTENT. You only use it if the CONTENT requires you use it. The DivX files you download off KaZaa will play the same in MCE as they do in linux.
But, MCE can play those movies you pay a few bucks to download off the 'net, will MythTV? My point being, OSS projects need to incorporate the same thing. The lack of legit DVD support has already crippled linux as an "entertainment" platform.
Look how well iTunes is working. Bandwidth is going up dramatically, theres a lot of fiber to the home happening. It wont be long before there's an (actually *working*, high-def) iTunes for movies - and OSS better not miss the boat.
I don't need no instructions to know how to rock!!!!
First of all, MythTV and Mediaportal are not competitors. Not yet. For them to be true competitors, they need to just work out of the box. Don't get me wrong, they're great products, but they're not true competitors in the average consumer market, just like Gentoo Linux is not a competitor with Windows XP.
And the other two products mentioned are not real competitors. If you hate "Microsoft bloatware", these are not the products for you. From the Snapstream Beyond TV System Requirements page:
From the Showshifter System Requirements page:
It doesn't get much more Microsoft-centric than that.
If Media Center Edition fails, it will be because of price and competition from the cable companies, not because of competing software. Users who buy media center PCs will stick with Windows Media CEnter Edition, because that's what it'll come with. Just like people stick with XP Home, because that's what came on their computers.
Consumers want something that just works. Hobbyists, enthusiasts, and power users may be interested in picking their own TV tuner card, and setting up MythTV, but they do not form a large percentage of the market. You have people now who have Tivos because they "just work". Tivo made something that looks like a VCR and has a remote, and that (combined with cable and satellite companies giving them away for free) more than anything is what will kill windows MCE.
From what I've read about Microsoft MCE and all of its DRM and content restrictions, I have to agree with both of these articles.
The average consumer (again, they're the ones who influence the market, not us) doesn't care about DRM, yet. They can play their CDs in the car or on their stereo - it doesn't matter if they can't rip them to MP3.
However, ironically, MCE may be the thing that wakes up Joe Consumer to the dangers of DRM. If this doesn't, the broadcast flag of HDTV might. Currently, if Joe Consumer misses a show, he can stick a tape in the VCR. And even tape the game, despite the NFL telling him not to. When he fires up his Media Center PC, and hits record, and gets a message saying "You are not allowed to do this", there's going to be a huge backlash. But we're not there yet.
There is no sig, there is only Zuul.
Let's see:
.16 .0.1.0.3
MythTv is at version
MediaPortal is at version
Do you really want to run what is essentially an alpha product? I don't. These people also are happy with the fact that it sorta works, but not all the way. If you had a high end media room with a 100" screen and a projector, the image quality is not where it should be. It proably looks great on your 17" lcd or 4:3 ratio 27" television.
I'm not even sure what the snapstream product is. You can do everything it lists for the tv stuff with the software that comes with any pc tuner card.
MCE 2004 was a disaster. Horrible product, run away as fast as you can. MCE 2005 is loads better, though not perfect yet. Numerous companies offer a ready-to-go unit ala a DVD player. Just plug and go. The HP z545 and the Alienware DHS series are great machines that you can setup just fine to output to a HDTV projector and it looks great. You can also play Doom on them and surf the net. Nice integration.
Nobody YET offers a MCE with OTA or QAM HD support. You can add the card yourself (the ATI HDTV wonder is on the short list of cards supported by MCE) and you're good to go.
Until you can buy a pre-made box from a company with Myth loaded and ready to rock, I don't think you'll see myth in the living room. Microsoft got a computer in every home, now it wants one in every living room connected to the tv. If MCE 2005 is where they are going, they are headed in the right direction.
...Apple, in the form of Steve Jobs, has said numerous, numerous, numerous times, publicly and very specifically, that he doesn't believe in any kind of convergence, or any interactivity between TV and computers. As he has said numerous times: When you use a computer, you turn your mind on. When you watch TV, you turn your mind off. They two worlds are not compatible. Now, whether that's just gimmicky-speak, and whether it's ultimately true aside, Steve himself believes it. And on top of that, Steve, even as CEO of Pixar, is one of those "kill your television" types, so I don't see him getting behind a PVR/AV component type project.
HOWEVER, some evidence points in other directions:
AirPort Express: an AV component that lets you stream music from your computer to an analog or digital audio output on a wireless device that's part of your entertainment system
iPod Photo: an increasingly large hard drive in a product that has a dock that is, in part, intended to be part of an entertainment system that has audio and composite video and S-video output (think iTunes Movie Store: download movie, sync with iPod, drop in dock that's hooked up to your TV, and play)
New headless sub-$500 iMac: ThinkSecret is almost ALWAYS spot-on with these stories, so it's probably true. This could easily be an AV component IF it includes tuner capabilities, or some provision for adding them
Apple/Motorola cell phone, possibly co-branded or even Apple-branded: Yes, this really is happening, folks. If an Apple VP talks about it to Forbes, it was explicitly approved by Jobs. This proves Apple is willing to branch out into other markets.
With the "Digital Hub", Apple has addressed every possible kind of connectivity and device: scanners, printers, digital cameras, digital camcorders, phones, PDAs, the computer, movie editing, CD creation, music, DVD authoring, portable music players, etc. - everything, that is, EXCEPT TV. Yes, there are sticky issues here, of copyright, of rights management, etc., probably even worse than what was dealt with for the iTunes Music Store. Not to mention the problems of dealing with different TV reception standards in different countries, and the fact that you'd need to be able to DIRECTLY TUNE encrypted digital cable and satellite services, in all markets, to even begin to make this worthwhile for Apple. They're not going to have people hook up crap to random external equipment. So until there are universal standards (like CableCard) for allowing devices OTHER than set top boxes to tune the digital TV services, it just doesn't make sense.
But if Apple made a device in this space, it would be the iPod of PVRs, and would have the ease of use, integration, and fabulous attention to detail and usability we've all come to expect from Apple.
We can only hope...
also, let's not forget the relative big success of the opensource software xbox media center http://www.xboxmediacenter.de/
me and my thinkpad, sittin' in a tree, c-o-d-i-n-g...
Although the article focuses on Microsoft vs. everyone else, a lot of the responses seem to be talking about media PCs vs. PVRs. So, I'll address that point.
/. have a spare system laying around (or the majority of components to make one)that is more than capable of being a repectable system to act as a PVR.
PCs and PVRs are just not comparable. Complete apples and oranges. You can't compare a Tivo or other PVR with a PC that's connected to a TV and the Internet. While it's nice that a PVR is meant specifically for its purpose and does it very well (even better if you know how to hack it), I can find many more advantages to having a PC connected to a TV instead.
First off, do you need more hard drive space? You buy a new secondary drive. You can't do that with PVRs unless you hack (in violation of contract if you rent the box) or buy/rent a newer one with a bigger hard drive.
If you don't want to watch TV, a wireless keyboard and mouse/trackball will allow you to surf on your TV. You can't do that with a PVR.
If the box is beefy enough, there is no reason why you can't use the PC as a gaming console. I'm sure that I'd have a lot more fun playing multiplayer "Ghost Recon" on my 55" widescreen TV than on my 21" monitor -- potential burn-in not withstanding.
There are other reasons, but I've made my point. Snd I'm sure that the vast majority of us on
Linux would have the same benefits, so I don't want to act as though only Windows can satisfy my requirements. But only us geeks would actually be comfortable using Linux for this purpose. The vast majority of people are unfortunately still brainwashed that Microsoft = Heaven, Bill Gates = God, and anything else != easy-to-use. So, properly positioned and marketed, XP MCE can be a highly effective alternative to PVRs to a huge amount of people.
That being said, I'm hearing a lot of good things about MythTV. I'm going to have to look into that. And I'll have a spare system shortly that's more than capable of handling the task. I'll pass on the PVR, thank you.
The Overrated mod is for reversing inappropriate, positive mods, not for voicing disagreement with a post.
I can see why your cable co's deal looks good now. Consider the disadvantages though:
1. Cable co can increase rate (look at contract)
2. Cable co might be paid off to rid people of PVR's.
3. $8/month will cost $350 in just under 2 years.
"And we have seen and do testify that the Father sent the Son to be the Savior of the World"
1 John 4:14
I'm just waiting for the first Media Center Worm article on /.
next up: worm brad corkscrew code
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
Oh yeah... it runs linux.
Some cats swing, and others don't. Don't you be the kind that won't.
I did the math and tried to come up with a good pc solution using myth tv. My requirements were a small case that would fit in my entertainment cabinet and semi old cheap hardware. The tv card winds up being the most expensive component $150 for a hardware mpeg encoder solution. To do it right, you are looking at about $400+ total system pricetag. That's using bottom basement pc components and top of the line pvr card. A replaytv unit costs $50 and a 12$/mo subscription or $250 lifetime. Which comes out cheaper then the mythtv unit. It provides many of the features you would see on a full blown media center type application since it networks with other replaytv units. You can run your pc as a replaytv unit and serve it shows, etc. All in all.. I found it to be the best deal; something that just works and the family can enjoy. There is fun factor to building the mytv unit..but if you are building it to be cost effective then you have to look beyond the alure of the free software.
You know, it's not clear that movies will follow the same track as music.
* Record labels make money by selling albums over a relatively long period of time.
* You only need one or two good singles to sell an album.
* They push singles through the commercial, but not-for-pay radio [does MTV actually show music videos anymore?]
* Actual concert performances profit the band, not the record label
* They have *always* had to deal with the possibility of taping-off-radio and taping-off-CD
* Movies are much more expensive to make than albums. And probably riskier creatively.
* Movie studios make a bunch of money on live performances in movie theatres. They will hesitate to dissipate that by releasing simultaneously to consumer digital. (Although there are huge advantages to digital transmission to theaters.)
* They make a second chunk of money selling hard copy DVDs *once the first run revenue* is tapped out.
* Finally, once the DVD stream is largely tapped out, they'll make a chunk of money selling the TV broadcast rights.
* For now, the primary medium is heavy, bulky, film prints on reels, which are hard to pirate, except through sucky camcorder taping.
The whole rhythm of release and commercial structure is different for these two industries. Probably, they'll make the transition to digital quite differently.
Non-specialized hardware. It is widely known that specialized hardware blows the doors off a PC while often costing less. They've learned on their mistake with XBox, and XBox 2 will be a highly specialized platform. They may learn the same thing about Media centers, and turn it into a specialized platform also, simply to bring the prices down from their currently stratospheric level. Viable price point for Media Center is IMO $500-600.
I might be wrong, but I don't think the elimination of the VHF and UHF spectrums will affect terrestrial analog cable. At least the FCC has no control over what's sent over a shielded copper cable, there's standards, but that's about it.
So that leaves it in the cable company's hands, personally, if my cable company ends analog service, and forces me to purchase a cable box for each of my analog TVs, for anything more than $1 a month additional, they lose their appeal compared to satellite TV, and I'll be switching to satellite at that point.
On the topic of tuner cards, don't do what I did and buy the damn Hauppauge PVR-150 if you plan to use it in Linux. There's no fully functional drivers available for it yet. There's a group working on drivers but last I heard (last week) one guy on the team disappeared, so they're stuck right now on the development. The PVR-250 is identical in functionality to the PVR-150, it just has more chips and costs more to manufacture, it's being replaced by the cheaper 150, the 250 supposedly works great in Linux.
grep -iw skynet
Really? It runs fine on my old P3 933 w/ 512Mb RAM. Software cost's aside. I only had to spend $79 on a capture card, $30 on a remote and and extra $145 for an ATI's video card and HDTV dongle. It was easy to setup and the interface is great. I might give another PVR such as mythtv a try at sometime, but I never get round to it because MCE works great.
People are willing to accept change in how things work, when they believe in a reason for the change. Because people do not want more airplanes used as attacks, people grudgingly go along with the newer airline security guidelines even if some individual rules make no sense.
But when change is thrust upon people that comes with no discernible benefit to them, they do not take at. A very real example I have seen in person is multiple consoles being returned at stored because "they would not play DVD's when hooked up through a VCR". These people didn't know what Macrovision was, but they knew they didn't like how the product worked and so returned it - I do not work at a return counter or anything, these were random examples I saw three times in a row when waiting in line to return something myself.
Now think forward to the effects of things like the broadcasting flag. What happens when Grandpa can no longer record a game they want to watch on PPV? Chaos I say. A customer service nightmare for whatever company is so foolish as to make use of the flag. And if enough broadcasts do make use of the flag, an eventual shift in what people watch to media that does let them control the pace and time and place they choose to watch things.
It is not too hard to see people getting fed up with TV and broadcasters. What follows naturally? Well, right now Tivo's are embedded in cable and satellite boxes. Imagine what happens when instead Tivo starts bundling TV services!!! They are already starting down that path to push movies to consumers directly along with Netflix - and when they take over the most profitable part of broadcasting (PPV) can the other parts be far behind?
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley