In the Year 2020

An anonymous reader writes "Every 5 years, the CIA funds a detailed forecast of the future 15 years hence. The biggest trend identified in the latest report is the economic and technological rise of Asia."

Comments

/. cia

[Anonymous Coward]

Sweet! We slashdotted the CIA!

It's in the Bag.

[Ian Action]

The U.S. is out of luck, by 2020 I will have reached Alpha Centauri and won.

+5: Anti-Bush Tirade

[goldspider]

OK, trollish subject aside (and yes I believe that's why it was modded up), what makes you believe that anyone else would be any more fiscally responsible?

I'll agree that Bush isn't doing us any favors, but you don't replace one big spender with another and expect things to be any different.

Case in point: Bush is trying to overhaul Social Security and rescue it from the inevitable financial ruin that Bill Clinton predicted in 1998. What are Democrats saying in response? That there is no financial crisis in Social Security, that the problem can be fixed by simply raising taxes.

Let me reiterate: Bush isn't doing this country's finances any favors. But neither would Democrats. The whole lot of them need to be given a lesson on how to spend other peoples' money (hint: sparingly).

Re:+5: Anti-Bush Tirade

[gad_zuki!]

>one big spender with another

Under Clinton the budget was balanced and the deficit was gone. This "spendocrats" myth is just that. Historically, Democratic Presidents have been much more fiscally responsible.

Re:hmmm

[MasterOfUniverse]

Actually seeing how many things they got it right might not be a correct idea. Most(not all ofcourse) of thier gloomy predictions are taken seriosuly and worked upon, so that they do not occur. And if they do not come true then it does not mean that the original prediction was false. For example, suppose in 1995 they said terrorist would attack US in 10 years. If we would have had reacted to that report, we would not have had 9/11. But now if you would have read that report, it would turn out to be false (since we prevented 9/11).

2010

[OECD]

It's interesting to look at the (nearer) "2010" one (done in 1996.) I was expecting a laugh, but it's not too bad. Tidbits that struck me:

The "Social Security-Medicare" debate already reverberating throughout the developed world will be acute.

We anticipate genetic engineering fueling a fourth agricultural revolution by the end of this timespan. As in the past, shortages will be man-made.

To compete, businesses will continue to move beyond regional or national perspectives to optimize global trade.

Potential adversaries will attempt to blunt our military superiority in other ways: improving their capabilities relative to their neighbors, and using unconventional and often asymmetric means--ranging from the increased use of terrorism to the possible use of weapons of mass destruction.

The likely course at least through 2010 will be an enlarged NATO serving s the primary vehicle for launching and sustaining "coalitions of the willing."

US-European strategic interests will be buffeted by several contentious issues: differences over -a policy toward Iran and Iraq (where political changes will occur in both countries by 2010); costs of underwriting a Middle East peace; divergent views on the future of Turkey's relations with Europe; and US positions on "fair vs. free trade," extraterritoriality, and the role of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in settling trade disputes.