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In the Year 2020
An anonymous reader writes "Every 5 years, the CIA funds a detailed forecast of the future 15 years hence. The biggest trend identified in the latest report is the economic and technological rise of Asia."
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US Unipolarity--How Long Can It Last?
A world with a single superpower is unique in modern times. Despite the rise in anti-Americanism, most major powers today believe countermeasures such as balancing are not likely to work in a situation in which the US controls so many of the levers of power. Moreover, US policies are not perceived as sufficiently threatening to warrant such a step.
Eh, with the Dollar doing as shitty as it has been and the country being run into financial ruins by someone known to have little success with any other financial venture he spearheaded I really don't think that we will be able to recover in as little as twelve years. We are digging an enormous hole right now both financially and in public opinion. When a leader sends a country to war on what we figured were false pretenses but ends up ahead at the end we might forgive them. When a leader sends a country to war on what we figured were false pretenses but ends of admitting we found squat I just don't think that public opinion will remain high...
The country may weaken itself due to internal conflict. Especially if the draconian measures continue to erode our personal freedoms.
In the future, growing distrust could prompt governments to take a more hostile approach, including resistance to support for US interests in multinational forums and development of asymmetric military capabilities as a hedge against the US.
Too bad they can't come right out and say that the distrust is justified. Who the fuck is going to go to bat for us when we get owned by more organized terrorists (or internal conflict) when anything the leaders of our country have said over the past 10 years is proven bullshit?
Many countries increasingly believe that the surest way to gain leverage over Washington is by threatening to withhold cooperation. In other forms of bargaining, foreign governments will try to find ways to "bandwagon" or connect their policy agendas to those of the US--for example on the war on terrorism--and thereby fend off US opposition to other policies.
And with the dollar so weak and public opinion (both nationally and internationally) low this will probably work. Any pressure they put on us 10 years ago would mean nothing. We would just use our leverage and shove back. With our country weakened on multiple fronts we won't have much leverage or public desire to have leverage (ie more deficit dollars).
I'd be interested to see past reports, and see what they got right. I know they having really been batting a thousand as of late.
/* oops I accidentally made a comment, sorry */
Sweet! We slashdotted the CIA!
to "Captains of the obvious"
Anyone who can't see what Asia, especially China is going to become is blind.
Same as in 1990. Bush in the whitehouse, future not so good. Bush leaves, things pick up. Another Bush (Jeb) gets elected. Apocolypse ensues.
Rapture this baby!
I am the lord of the pun. Dance Knave!
Where's my personal helicopter to land in my driveway? And the return of the airship? And the 600-foot mechas helping us build skyscrapers?
Don't blame Durga. I voted for Centauri.
I want to know what happens in the year 2525, if Man is still alive.
If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
The U.S. is out of luck, by 2020 I will have reached Alpha Centauri and won.
Why am I not rapping? I am rapping with you in a way.
President Jenna Bush?!? WTF!!!
__ Someday, but not this morning, I'll finally learn to use the preview button.
Something i would like to mention
As the report states, India and China will both be big economic powers partly due to their huge population, but the standards of living won't necessarily be better.
I've been to India 12 years ago and i've been last year, and yes the standards of living have vastly improved, but for it to be at an acceptable level, it definitely won't take another 15 years. My hope is within 50 years (and that's being optimistic).
Marge, get me your address book, 4 beers, and my conversation hat.
Really hope not, because she's dead Jim....
From what I've been reading lately, we'll have cured death, enabling us to live over 1000 years while simultaneously have turned the entire world into a gray goo by perfecting nanobots.
My guess is it'll be about the same as it is now, except I'll be 15 years older, taxes will be higher, and we'll have a whole bunch more crap that doesn't really make our lives any easier.
-Arthur
Cave ne ante ullas catapultas ambules
would like to shuo huanying nimen lai Meiguo to our new Chinese overlords.
Zenme shuo Zhongwen "you want fries with that?"
3D Printing Tips and Tricks at Zheng3.com
and not one mention of a flying car..
=..(
-Military stronger than everyone else's? Check
-Foreign enemy considered barbaric? Check
-Foreign enemy wages hit and run warfare, avoids standing to fight in large battles? Check
-Vast amount of resources used to fight a limited threat? Check
-Power held by rich self serving minority? Check
-Populace stagnating culturally? Check
-Increasing importance placed on personal luxury and materialistic acquisitions? Check
And finally,
-Widening gap between average citizens and the fundamentals of survival (ie farming, etc.)? Check
Just because the US has been around for 200 years doesn't mean it will always be. Putting aside parisan politics and the religious schisms, I think that we really need to start addressing the hard issues that our country has traditionally ignored- until too late. One of these days, it will be.
OK, trollish subject aside (and yes I believe that's why it was modded up), what makes you believe that anyone else would be any more fiscally responsible?
I'll agree that Bush isn't doing us any favors, but you don't replace one big spender with another and expect things to be any different.
Case in point: Bush is trying to overhaul Social Security and rescue it from the inevitable financial ruin that Bill Clinton predicted in 1998. What are Democrats saying in response? That there is no financial crisis in Social Security, that the problem can be fixed by simply raising taxes.
Let me reiterate: Bush isn't doing this country's finances any favors. But neither would Democrats. The whole lot of them need to be given a lesson on how to spend other peoples' money (hint: sparingly).
"Ask not what your country can do for you." --John F. Kennedy
For those who do not want to read the entire report, here are a few key points:
* Al Qaeda is replaced by decentralized terror groups which are equally deadly.
* China and India emerge as new global players. (But they could be competitive instead of cooperative)
* Rise in military strength of China and India - could lead to conflicts.
* Russia and Central Asia decline (in terms of democracy)
* Democracy grows in the Middle east.
* More competitive world for the United States
* India's Bollywood outshines Hollywood
* Rise of Korean Pop.
Now make your own predictions.
"When the only tool you own is a hammer, every problem begins to resemble a nail." - Abraham Maslow (1908-1970)
but hey, irrationally shutting down an entire organization is way better than fixign the problems
Can't argue there! Hey, while we're at it, might as well get rid of the entire government but have no replacement ready!
We as a nation have historically weathered contentious times in relatively peaceful fashion.
...
While I agree with your fears that this may be the end, contentious times have frequently seen periods marked by violence. There were numerous labor protests in the late 19th century and early 20th century, dozens of people were shot dead by the police during many riots, the crowd's lynched policemen and members of the moneyed class. Not that they teach this stuff in HS History class
In the 60s and 70s, the President was assinated, we we in a war which was much bigger then the Iraqi conflict as it is today, there were massive race riots, radicals on the left were blowing up banks, radicals on right were burning down Churches, sometimes during Sunday school with children still inside.
I'm not saying everything is better today, but things aren't nearly as violent as they have been during some periods in the past.
94% of Repubs and 21% of Dems voted to renew the Patriot Act
If I speak my mind in line at a court house, I oculd be arrested.
If I want to travel by plane, I have to allow some stranger to put his hands on my childs privates.
If I want to protest, I must do it a specially cordened off places, and the press is kept away
If I happen to sell a product, and the MANUFACTURER of that product broke some laws, I will have the HOmeland security threatent to shut me down.
My house can be searched without probably cause.
My phones can be tapped for probably casue.
We are having other peoples 'decency' standards applied to us.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
Nothing for 6-digit uids?
America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves. --Abraham Lincoln
To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public. - Theodore Roosevelt
It's interesting to look at the (nearer) "2010" one (done in 1996.) I was expecting a laugh, but it's not too bad. Tidbits that struck me:
One man's -1 Flamebait is another man's +5 Funny.
How the hell can you have a detailed forecast of something 15 years in the future? Do they employ an army of psychics or what?
Some political anaylists are very good at this sort of thing. Pat Buchanan predicted an attack on the US mainland that would kill "thousands" back in 1999, and a second Iraq war (he even got the year right) in his book "A Republic Not An Empire".
What does this gain? They're just throwing away money every 5 years. It's mostly just: a)Wishful thinking b)bad extrapolation of current trends
It's good to work out all scenario's so you can plan for them. Speaking for the military, would you rather them have an attack plan for everyone, just the nations you don't like, or nobody since it might not get everything right anyway?
I'm glad our government is at least thinking about the future and planning.
Find one Democratic President who's spent more money he didn't have than any of the last three Republican Presidents. That would be...noone. Oops.
/. sig (the economy has done better under the worst Democratic President than under the best Republican President).
The Republicans have campaigned on their superiority to the Democrats on their spending and economic records, and I'm still trying to figure out why. 2/3 of the national debt was amassed during the last three Republican Presidents. Clinton didn't run the debt in eight years that Bush Sr. ran in four (and he ran the least debt of the three RPs). Clinton had the benefit of the economy, which of course doesn't help, because of the
The claim that anyone would have spent themselves silly doesn't seem to hold, because only the Republicans have shown themselves equal to that task. Since they have spent a good deal of the past decades complaining about the spending that they have been most qualified at undertaking, they are either hypocritical or stupid.
Social Security is a problem, and one Clinton or the Democrats did nothing about. On the other hand, making SS reliant on the entity (the stock market) it was instituted to secure savings from doesn't seem like the smartest policy on the planet. Of course, removing money from the system (to invest in the stock market) while it is reliant on current income to pay current recipients without raising taxes and then saying that future and current SS recipients won't lose money seems to require mathematical legerdemain that is beyond my capacity to understand. In this case, to keep SS solvent without cutting it (which would probably sink the stock market) taxes are probably the best solution (in concert with raising the retirement age). They aren't always the best solution, but they may be in this case.
CommanderTaco should be hearing a knock at his door a few moments from now.
Years of experience with foreign film and television had conclusively demonstrated that Sturgen's Law applies. This includes chinese cinema. 90% of chinese movies suck - then again, 90% of everything sucks. They may seem innovative to a neophyte, but watch a little more and you'll see that in the context of their own kind most are as predictable and shallow as anything Hollywood turns out.
In particular, I've noticed how plot coherency/novelty is often ignored in favor of eye candy. (I suspect dialogue suffers as well but I'm not really qualified to evaluate that). A word of advice: overuse of rich color is neither clever nor novel nor enough to qualify as art.
Same goes for: Hollywood, Anime, New Wave French Cinema, Independent Film, Film Noir, Bollywood, Japanese Ultra-violence, English Period Drama, and all the other sacred cows of videophiles.
Fortunately, 10% of any genre is not crap, so there's still good stuff to watch. Just keep in mind, while no other film center may be as widely distributed as Hollywood, they can make films that are just as crappy or good.
---If you can't trust a nerd, who can you trust?
In the year 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive
They may find........
In the year 3535
Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lies
Everything you think, do, or say
Is in the pill you took today
In the year 4545
Ain't gonna need your teeth, won't need your eyes
You won't find a thing to chew
Nobody's gonna look at you
In the year 5555
Your arms are hanging limp at your sides
Your legs got nothing to do
Some machine, doing that for you
In the year 6565
Ain't gonna need no husband, won't need no wife
You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too
From the bottom of a long glass tube
In the year 7510
If God's a comin' he ought to make it by then
Maybe he'll look around himself and say
``Guess it's time for the Judgement day''
In the year 8510
God's gonna shake his mighty head
He'll either say ``I'm pleased where man has been''
Or tear it down and start again
In the year 9595
I'm kinda wondering if man's gonna be alive
He's taken everything this old earth can give
And he ain't put back nothing...
Now it's been 10,000 years
Man has cried a billion tears
For what he never knew
Now man's reign is through
But through the eternal night
The twinkling of starlight
So very far away
Maybe it's only yesterday...
In the year 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive
They may find.......
Actually the report points out the following:
Because of the sheer size of China's and India's populations--projected by the US Census Bureau to be 1.4 billion and almost 1.3 billion respectively by 2020--their standard of living need not approach Western levels for these countries to become important economic powers.
Which means these two could have a global impact even if substantial parts of the country were living in poverty. Both these nations cannot afford to wait around for all its troubles to be over before pushing to the front.
The report does a good comparison of both nation's strengths and weaknesses under the "Risks to Economic growth" part. Interesting read..
Rapid Nirvana
First of all, the first world's population will be radically altered from the vast number of people emigrating from 3rd world countries to 1st world countries. This is has prons and cons: it will definitely give a boost to local economies, due to more young people working, but it will also bring havoc to social peace.
Secondly, we are plunging with great speed into a 2nd age of darkness. More and more, people don't use their critical thinking and logic and they are based on emotion, faith and mysticism. Although technology has done quantum leaps in the last century, the average person (average, when including 3rd world countries, of course) has no clue about mainstream science and attributes everything to God (just like with the recent tsunami being viewed as a punishment from God).
The standard of education goes down like a rock falling from a cliff, and there are gonna be millions of people with diplomas and degrees which are essentially uneducated into what makes society tick.
The computer business will reach a point where everything halts. Processing power would be so great, that upgrading will be meaningless. Of course that is after computers can do realtime raytracing and voice synthesis.
We are never gonna go to Mars.
There is a possibility of a 3rd World War, much more devastating than the first two, especially if politicians keep ignoring the facts that the west's wars are viewed as religious wars by East.
Why? I don't see any connection at all. Unless you are talking about the state of today's daycare facilities.
Or did you mean if you wanted your child to come with you?
This post written under Gentoo-linux with an SCO IP license.
To be honest, as long as the renminbi remains pegged to the dollar, as long as the Japanese Central Bank is buying dollars to slow the rise of the yen vs the renminbi, and as long as European companies are forced to cut into their margins to remain competitive vs the Japanese*, then American consumers won't see too big of an increase.
Oh wait, they are already. OIL PRICES.
Remember, the 1973 oil shock wasn't only in retaliation to Western support for Israel in the Kippur War, but also to make up for the loss of purchasing power since the mid 60's.
I am convinced the recent rise in oil prices is linked to the depreciation of the dollar, and not only to Chinese growth increasing demand faster than reserves are discovered, or insecurity in Russia or the Middle East.
If I remember correctly, since Nov. 2000 the euro's appreciation has more or less matched oil's ($.85 to $1.35, vs $30 to $50 : +60% in both cases).
When arab investors became persona non grata in America after 9/11, petrodollars started getting increasingly invested in Europe (or in China), which fuels the euro's rise over the dollar. The resulting fall of the dollar makes the Arabs painfully aware of the loss of purchasing power they're getting (since they're getting fewer euros per barrel), so they have to improve their prices.
Oh yeah, and they convert their dollars into euros event faster.
So far, American consumers have been protected from the effects of the dollar's depreciation by external factors. However, if China has to increase its prices because of the increase in oil prices, if the Federal Reserve has to increase interest rates, if Japan stops being able to buy those T-bills, or if OPEC suddenly starts demanding payment in euros, American households will feel the heat. Or even be wiped out.
* I'm working at a small German sports car manufacturer. We're selling our entry-level model at a loss in the US because we're supposed to be 20% more expensive than a Nissan 350 Z, but we cannot afford to be twice as expensive...
Have they given up predicting this one yet ?
"Care to give an example of YOUR freedoms that are being continually eroded?"
Let's start with the freedom to be considered innocent before proven guilty.
Continue on to the right to a fair and prompt trial by your peers.
Continue to the right to a proper legal defense.
And then there's that pesky Habeus Corpus thing, and lots more.
All the govt needs to do now is call you a "terrorist", and you can now be held indefinitely, as in possibly for the rest of your LIFE, without being charged, without access to lawyers, and even under the threat of being shipped overseas to a country that recognizes even fewer rights.
I might have an inclination to support this and other anti-terrorist laws (Patriot Act, etc.) if I thought it would be truly used with care, discretion, and only as intended, i.e., against real terrorist cases. Terrorists play a very nasty, violent, and real game, and we need exceptional tools to fight them on their ground.
However, within 6 months of getting Patriot I passed, Ashcroft's crews were touring around the country giving seminars to prosecutors on how to use these new powers in ordinary investigations and cases. Since the enforcers immediately abused the tools as soon as they were given, they are obviously untrustworthy and must be opposed.
As Edmund Burke said "All that is necessary for evil to succeed is that good men do nothing."
Your Alfred E Newman attitude is an example of this failure. You have apparently forgotten or do not care that our government is to be "of the people, by the people, for the people"? This attitude gains nothing and harms others, and as such is truly stupid (and I mean that exactly, as in the third law, not as a weak insult).
Many intelligent people are deeply concerned that we are losing the freedoms which made this country great (and not in a trivial red state/blue state way). How do we wake the others?
Really? You coulda fooled me.
The two presidents with the worst budget deficits, both accomplished by combining tax cuts and with increased spending, are Bush (Republican) and Reagan (Republican).
....
The last two presidents to have a budget surplus were Clinton (Democrat) and Johnson (Democrat).
Social Security is NOT in crisis. The trust fund is growing, and will do so for another ten years or so. It will then gradually decline and take about 50 years to be bankrupt. This can easily be fixed by a small payroll tax increase. Entrusting Social Security to the likes of Enron and World Com, who were run to the ground by friends of Bush, is a pretty inept way of rescuing a system which does not need rescuing any time soon, and even then, can be easily rescued by a small tax increase. MOre likely, Bush wants to make it appear to be in crisis so he can destroy this leftover from FDR's New Deal. Socialism and all that, doncha know
The privatization plan would require another two trillion $$$ to finance during the transition period, all borrowed of course. A small payroll tax increase is far less intrusive than the massive inflation tax generated by such borrowing.
Infuriate left and right