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MMOG Subscription Charts Updated

Posted by Zonk on from the doing-that-statistics-thang dept.

SirBruce writes "Mmogchart.com has been updated, and Version 13.0 is now online. The charts now include more data for World of Warcraft and EverQuest II. Please keep in mind that this data is still very preliminary and could still change. It is widely believed that many other games have shown a decline in subscriptions as a result of the impact of WoW and EQII, but I have no quantifiable numbers yet for the current subscribers for games such as EverQuest I, Ultima Online, Dark Age of Camelot, and City of Heroes. The full effect of WoW and EQII is not yet visible and probably will not be until February or March."

27 comments

  1. What exactly was updated? by _xeno_ · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Not to try and be an ass, but it looks like only three MMORPGs received new datapoints since the last time this was on Slashdot - EverQuest II, World of Warcraft, and Runescape. So this isn't really much of an update.

    Not to mention that the author of the page (and article submitter) mentions that the EQ2 and WoW numbers are "preliminary and subject to change." All in all, this is really a non-story and not really worth a Slashdot story. Even if it is only a Games section story.

    I'd be much more interested in seeing the numbers in a couple of months, to see how the release of new MMORPGs effected other MMORPGs.

    Maybe we should make these MMOG subscription chart stories quarterly instead of monthly, is all I'm saying. :)

    --
    You are in a maze of twisty little relative jumps, all alike.
    1. Re:What exactly was updated? by Ayaress · · Score: 1

      How about just making them monthly even? Is it just me, or have I read like six stories about MMO subscriptions in the last couple weeks alone?

    2. Re:What exactly was updated? by SirBruce · · Score: 2, Informative

      Hey xeno, don't worry, you're not being an ass. :) The criticism I usually get is much more blunt; yours is actually reasonable!

      However, I will point out a couple of things:

      1. The numbers for Anarchy Online were also modified to more accurately reflect reality (hopefully). Eve Online was also updated, A Tale In the Desert finally got listed, and there were a couple of other minor changes. Also, I added a market share by genre breakdown.

      2. The February/March update(s) should be a lot more informative. Meanwhile, a lot of people have been using my charts to argue EQ2 vs. WoW, and given that new numbers came out for both recently, the current interest level is quite high.

      3. I used to update more infrequently; quarterly was about the average I was managing the past 2 years. But then people complained it was too long between updates! I've gotten some generous donations so I'm trying to give back to the community by updating more frequently.

      Whether or not each new update deserves a monthly slashdot article, well, that's a legitimate question. I think the current interest is high enough to warrant it (I had no idea that the IDGA white paper would be coming out at the same time), but clearly I'm biased.

      Bruce

    3. Re:What exactly was updated? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For that matter, how about dropping the Lineage stats?

      Slashdot is not published in Korean, is it? Almost all of the Lineage accounts are in Asia, and a large chunk of those accounts are just sweat-shop harvesters, not real gamers.

      Publish easier-to-read charts which display the US usage contrast between EQ, EQ2, WoW, DAOC, CoH, AC and AC2, and I'll actually be interested.

      Show me a big sweeping arc that represents Lineage with a little rainbow band at the bottom of the chart representing "everything else" and i can't really bring myself to give a shit.

  2. This seems somewhat suspect... by HaloZero · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The MMORPG chart lists WoW at having 350,000 users, while more than 600,000 copies of the game were sold during the holiday season alone (not including retail during the initial week).

    --
    Informatus Technologicus
    1. Re:This seems somewhat suspect... by genrader · · Score: 1

      I do not doubt that a lot of people have bought this game and didn't sign up. All those twelve year olds whose parents won't let them have a credit card for the game.

      --
      the Political Inquirer
    2. Re:This seems somewhat suspect... by Snowspinner · · Score: 2, Interesting

      If I recall correctly from reading a message board thread with a DAoC dev a while ago, he claimed that DAoC had a huge rate of boxes sold that never made accounts, accounts that played once and then stopped, often without ever cancelling their subscription, and other such oddities.

      --
      Philip Sandifer's academic website
    3. Re:This seems somewhat suspect... by SirBruce · · Score: 2, Informative

      All of this is quite true. Still, I will admit 350K is nearly the lower end for WoW; in the analysis I state it could be as high as 600K. (EQII reportedly had 85% conversion, which is very high; apply the same to WoW and you'll get 500K.) Still, one would expect them to trumpet passing the 500K subscriber mark and claim they have passed EverQuest in size -- but they haven't. So it makes one wonder.

      It's also important to note that many WoW boxes were bought as holiday gifts, and many were bought by Blizzard or Warcraft-specific fans who had never been willing to try a MMOG before. So it would not be unusual for the conversion rate to be lower because of these factors.

      There's a good chance Blizzard will release another number for WoW later this month or in February, in which case the 350K figure might be more accurate for December.

      Bruce

    4. Re:This seems somewhat suspect... by Skidge · · Score: 1

      I do not doubt that a lot of people have bought this game and didn't sign up. All those twelve year olds whose parents won't let them have a credit card for the game.

      Bah, so it's the 12 year olds who are hoarding all the WoW retail boxes. I drove all over town trying to find one today. It's too bad for Blizzard that they didn't have any more available when my guest account ran out. Now I'll be able to kick the habit before I'll be able to buy a box and start my account back up.

    5. Re:This seems somewhat suspect... by Kris_J · · Score: 1

      Simple: It's been more than a month and they still haven't fixed the effing servers. I won't be showing up in any active subscriber list for WoW come Friday.

    6. Re:This seems somewhat suspect... by tc · · Score: 1

      And if you RTFA, he says this to back up his estimate:

      Launched in November 2004, this is Blizzard's much-anticipated entry into the MMOG market. Numbers are still very preliminary; not everyone who starts playing a MMOG at launch actually "subscribes" the following month. We know for sure that WoW has at least 200,000 subscribers, and as of January 2005 has sold through close to 600,000 copies. Based on a variety of factors such as likely conversion rates and server loads, it is reasonable to believe that World of Warcraft has between 350,000 and 500,000 subscribers as of January 2005. I generally do not put "best guesses" in my data, but given both the interest in and importance of this game, I have put a preliminary figure of 350,000 for now. Until that can be confirmed, I have given the data a Confidence Rating of C.

      He knows about the 600,000 figure, he's just saying that the data is sketchy, and not all of those sales will turn into subscriptions. Based on his previous experience analysing these things, his conversative estimate for now is 350,000. Seems fair to me.

    7. Re:This seems somewhat suspect... by will_die · · Score: 1

      The problem WoW is having is downtime of servers, don't expect much PR from them until they fix the servers and can handle the increased sales that PR could create. Same reason they are not producing more boxes.

      You are starting to see more problems on the fan boards, one is having a survey on if current players would recommended WoW to friends over 40% would not. Then to top it off people are quitting because of the server problems, will be interesting to see if they come back after the prolems are fixed.

    8. Re:This seems somewhat suspect... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't forget that Wow is not launched yet in Europe and Asia.
      In Europe alone they had more than 300 k beta key demand, so you can guess that wow numbers will grow way more than that.

  3. What, again? by Snowspinner · · Score: 0, Troll

    OK, so let me get this straight. Bruce reads a bunch of investor reports and press releases, plots the data on a graph, and updates it, and every time he makes the front page of Slashdot?

    I cleaned out my dryer lint today! Why can't I be on the frontpage?

    --
    Philip Sandifer's academic website
    1. Re:What, again? by Ayaress · · Score: 1

      It depends, did you find any loose change in the lint trap? If so, did you find more or less loose change than you did last week? What's your long-term trend in loose change from the lint trap? How is the introduction of the new $20 and $50 bills effecting your lint picking profits?

    2. Re:What, again? by Heftklammerdosierer! · · Score: 1

      You also need data for at least 5 years.

  4. ToonTown by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What - I can't believe they haven't included ToonTown ;)

    1. Re:ToonTown by SirBruce · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I can't believe no ToonTown developer has slipped me numbers yet. :( Industry guesses are in the 30K - 50K range.

      Bruce

    2. Re:ToonTown by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Saw you registered on the RV forums, Bruce. Are they gonna share their numbers when it launches?

    3. Re:ToonTown by SirBruce · · Score: 1

      I dunno if they are going to share their numbers or not. I hope so!

      Bruce

  5. Dark Age of Camelot by ApacheVE · · Score: 1

    Bruce, You still list Dark Age of Camelot in the 250k area, but I think it's a lot lower than that since WoW/EQ2 was released.

    1. Re:Dark Age of Camelot by SirBruce · · Score: 2, Informative

      Mark Jacobs has admitted they are lower, and the concurrency numbers are down over 30%, but exactly how many subscribers have left has yet to be quantified. The 250K number comes from the last press releases.

      Bruce

  6. Lineage? by cgenman · · Score: 1

    Why is it that EQ is hovering around the 500k mark, and a MMPORPG called Lineage is flying around the 3 million mark? Is Lineage big in Korea or something?

    --
    The ______ Agenda
    1. Re:Lineage? by SirBruce · · Score: 2, Informative

      If you read the Analysis section, you'll find more discussion of the Lineage numbers. But the short answer is, yes, it is very popular in Korea.

      Bruce

    2. Re:Lineage? by cgenman · · Score: 1

      Interesting, an "Hourly or Monthly" payment model. I bet that's a great way to let people try out your game without committing too much to the experience. You don't even have to download: the cafe already has it.

      --
      The ______ Agenda
  7. Never cease to be amazed... by talaphid · · Score: 1

    There's always a first time for someone. A time when you discovered that these things called "mice" are all the rage, and that wonderful new game you bought requires one - I am not kidding. Extraploate... a computer game that REQUIRES online connectivity to play? C'mon, what was the last Blizzard game... Warcraft 3. As much as that game is really in the online playing of it, there's a lot of single player game to be had. A game you can't... play... at all... except online... with an additional subscription fee?

    Pfft. They're an established developer, developing an established franchise, with a lot of established buzz... you could call every divergent sale (non-converted) "inertia" and probably be right enough for every day of the week.

    Seriously, throw out everything you know as an "expert" in this subject matter... would you know on first glance the difference between Fable and WoW? (Insert obligatory shot at Fable, divergent thread about merits)