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Has TiVo's Fate Been Sealed?
ChipGuy writes "Things are getting bleak for TiVo, reports the New York Times, and adds that TiVo blew a major opportunity to team up with Comcast. And that might have cost CEO Michael Ramsey the job. Om Malik writes that 'The fate of TiVo also highlights the dilemma facing a lot of "exploding TV" start-ups. The technology does not necessarily translate into profits and a business,' and breaks down the financials -- over half a billion dollars in losses so far. PVRBlog adds that 'When the story of TiVo is written, this Comcast negotiation could be the point when the company's outcome was decided.' More reactions here."
First, I have to take issue with the claim that such technology, concepts, and products are not enough for a successful business. I think their success to this point is evidence enough of the power of this kind of product.
On the other hand, I have to agree that Comcast has the power to propel TiVo into a different level of play. With that kind of support, they'd have a huge step up on all this exploding competition. That competition is finding ways to improve upon what TiVo already has - free listings, better storage, better interface, etc. Why compete directly when you could stand on the shoulders of Comcast?
In order for Tivo to survive against the snarly market forces of TV they would have had to promise even more invasive advertising to replace the ads we skip over. In two years Tivo would (will?) end up looking like a cheesy free web page with banner ads and annoying pop-ups. I'd rather live in the moment and go to the bathroom during ad breaks.
The product was good, service was good but the rest of the business world (mainly M$) did
As rich and powerful as Microsoft is, they just don't have the kind of power you think they do, especially when it comes to markets outside of computer OSes. I can't believe you're sitting here blaming Microsoft for the fact that Tivo is a poorly run company...
The vast majority of business failures people think were somehow caused by Microsoft were really caused by the ineptitude of the company that went under. When Microsoft goes after a market, a well-run company will push them back (see: Quicken vs Microsoft Money). A poorly run company? Well... Darwin's law kicks in. Is that really Microsoft's fault?
and why I would never buy any piece of hardware that relies on a subscription. All the more if they offer a "lifetime" subscription where you pay up front. People have fallen into this trap with health clubs as well - what is the chance that the company behind the hardware will outlive me?
My rights don't need management.
TiVo lovers (I used to be one myself) think this product is terminally cool because, when a TiVo box works correctly, it makes TV watching 100 times more enjoyable. But that, by itself, is not "success". Tivo lovers, though fanatical, are few and far between. TiVo has simply made too many mistakes. The platform is too klugy, so there's always been reliability issues. And if it does break, you have to send it back to the factory, for fees that approach the original purchase price. Even if nothing ever went wrong, most consumers just don't see such an expensive gadget as being worthwhile for what it does. This company is circling the drain.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but good "technology, concepts, and products" is not a guarantee of success. There are other factors: marketing, management, timing, access to markets, and just plain luck. The few techies that get rich making some amazing breakthrough get all the press -- but most innovative tech companies fail.
Which is true of all business. You can get very, very rich, but not without taking very, very big risks.
Instead of messing with all that, I stopped by the Cox office and they gave us a new cable box for free and the extra DVR functionality for an extra ten dollars a month over what he had already been paying. He's not going to notice a big difference between that and Tivo, so it's definitely "good enough".
But only because he's never used a TiVo.
I own a TiVo, and hate hate hate using Cox's DVR, which has horrible usability issues, even apart from the response times (over a second for basic operations).
As a random example - if you view a list and press page-down, you're now at the TOP of the next page. Pressing page-down again brings you to the bottom of the page and another press to the top of the next page.
TiVo practically always does exactly what I expect when I press a button, and the layout is so convenient that I never have to look at the remote.
I would gladly buy TiVo's UI people a round of drinks, but could get violent if I ever met Cox's DVR's developers (it looks like they have no UI people and let the programmers do it).
Ask yourself: how many people in the world still have milk delivered to their front doors?
If the service were availabe in my area at a reasonable price, I would.
How many people still have their gas pumped by an attendant?
Everyone getting gas in the state of New Jersey, and me, whenever I am getting gas while dressed well, when it's cold out, etc., etc.
I just don't get your point....HTPC's blow for non-techies in their current state.
Most overlooked points past shitty UIs and complicated setup: you need a remote control....oh yeah, that's right, every one availabe for PCs sucks ass. High quality SVIDEO output still isn't there at a reasonable price. And not-so-expensive PCs tend to be noisy. And hot. And not shaped like the rest of my stereo/tv components.
I deal with IT all day. When I come home and want to watch TV, that's what I want to do. Preiod. Not screw with some HTPC, or ssh into my hacked TiVo because the cron job to grab the listings failed.
Do not fold, spindle or mutilate.
Tivo is dying because cable companies subsidize the cost of the hardware, market it better, and charge less per month than Tivo does. Cox gives me two DVRs for free with digital cable, and charges me 8 dollars a month combined extra for the service for the two units. The unit itself has about 40 hours storage, is approximate in quality to the Tivo Series 1. Is it worth it for me to go out and spend 2x$199 replacing the hardware, only to then have to spend more than 20 bucks a month in service charges? Absolutely not.
However, the price difference makes it worthwhile - for $10/month and no setup fee, no purchase, no contract, and two tuners, how can you go wrong? Plus, it's probably simpler than a Tivo in some respects: the Cox box is also your cable tuner, so you don't have to worry about setting two timers (one in Tivo, one in the cable box) and other such hassles.
I have used both a Satellite (Non-TiVo) DVR and a TiVo (which I own). I was absolutely floored by how primitive the DVR was, and your comment about setting timers makes me wonder if the DVR you are using is also more primitive.
I NEVER set a timer on my TiVo. I have had friends ask me when a show comes on, and I haven't got a clue. The reason is, I tell my TiVo what to record and it manages all of the details. I never have to set a timer on it or on my settop box (since TiVo changes the channels on the settop automatically before it starts recording).
So, for example, I have a wishlist setup that records movies that were made in the 1920's. I have season passes that record specific shows. But I never have to even think about the details behind these recordings. I just turn on my T.V. and look at the list of what shows are waiting for me to watch.
THAT is the beauty of TiVo and until I see another system that can abstract away the details as well as TiVo does I won't even consider switching.