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AI Bots Pick The Hits of Tomorrow

Wolverine Inspector writes "The Music Industry uses a product called HSS (Hit Song Science) made by Spain's Polyphonic HMI. According to The Guardian "while no one's talking about it, it seems that the whole record industry is already using AI to choose hits. From unsigned acts dreaming in their garage, to multinationals such as Sony and Universal, everyone is clandestinely using a new and controversial technology to gain an edge on their competitors." Even though it costs about $5,200 US/$6,500, many artists are starting to buy it to help them write succesfull songs."

31 of 510 comments (clear)

  1. More white bread, please! by grub · · Score: 5, Insightful

    That's just great.

    Remember how video card manufacturers were tweaking their drivers to perform well in benchmarks? "Musicians", and I use that term loosely, will be tweaking their songs to score a "hit" on this service.
    FTA: Those "leftfield", illogical and grassroots-inspired departures from the norm, such as disco or drum and bass, could not have been predicted - but they shift the mainstream and provide the momentum any culture needs to remain fresh.
    Right, but it will be harder than ever to produce something out of the mainstream when a record exec will look only at the score on HSS and potential effect on the bottom line.
    FTA: As Smith says, "Art is the one area where people can, and should be able to, make radical statements. Anything that encourages safe, consensus-driven music should be used with caution."
    Art for art's sake is virtually a thing of the past. Prepare for more of the same on the FM dial! (thank goodness for etunes.com)
    --
    Trolling is a art,
    1. Re:More white bread, please! by savagedome · · Score: 3, Funny

      Art for art's sake is virtually a thing of the past.

      Welcome to the age of 'Art for fart's sake'. It's the future!

    2. Re:More white bread, please! by CaptainZapp · · Score: 5, Insightful
      "Musicians", and I use that term loosely, will be tweaking their songs to score a "hit" on this service.

      Sure, but so what? Same as you are not forced to eat crappy processed food you don't need to buy this homogenized shit.

      Sure, something gets lost along the lines. Creativity? Kharma? Soul? I don't really know, but unfortunately this change happened after the last of the titans in the music business left the ship and where replaced by young, aggressive, MBA schooled and Excel knowledged executives, who don't really give a shit if they're moving laundry detergent, softdrinks or, well, culture [for lack of a better word].

      The somewhat cheering thought is that we will always have good music around (currently Tom Waits: Blue Valentine, but I digress) and there will always be good new bands, song writers, arrangers and musicians.

      The difference between them and the mainstream will be that while they don't necessarilly shun technology they sure as hell won't use "hit"-writer software, or those gizmos that "clean" mistakes in human vocals.

      I totally agree with your assessment. Just wanted to add some perspective and maybe a more joyful outlook on what is to come.

      --
      ich bin der musikant

      mit taschenrechner in der hand

      kraftwerk

    3. Re:More white bread, please! by garcia · · Score: 5, Interesting

      But in time, these predictions have always proved wrong.

      The music industry has proven again and again that "time" no longer matters. Bands like The Stones, Aerosmith, etc, are all a thing of the past. They don't need them. They want acts like Spears, Maroon5, etc who rise to the top of the charts quickly through marketing, consolidation, and payoffs, and who are only there for a short time before the next big thing hits.

      Touring, actual music playing, and actual singing are overrated. The HSS printout says so.

      Just tweak this, this, and this. Add a synth here, here, and here. We have a hit. Two hits, maybe three, and we can continue to whine that we don't make any money because we spent it all marketing something that died after 3 years.

    4. Re:More white bread, please! by grub · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I totally agree with your assessment. Just wanted to add some perspective and maybe a more joyful outlook on what is to come.

      Yeah, if slashdot had a "+1, Cynical" rating my karma would be through the stratosphere. The only radio I listen to nowadays is AM news & weather. Most mainstream music isn't my cup of tea although there's a good university station here that plays some neat bands.

      In my original post I mentioned etunes.com. I meant emusic.com, I've found a lot of really decent smaller bands there I would never have heard of had I gone to the standard CD mall-store or listened to the mainstream radio. Mind you, my favourite band is Motorhead so my observations on art and music should be taken with a grain of salt ;)

      --
      Trolling is a art,
    5. Re:More white bread, please! by Seumas · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I really don't see any of this as a problem.

      There are musical artists and then there are musicians. Musicians play instruments or sing and write music, etc. Artists produce a piece of work intended to convey emotion and inspire or in some way evoke a response from the listener. A musician custom-builds a film-score, jingle, muzak or top 40 hit.

      There's no art in "rock-away" or "drop it like it's hot" or "thong thong thong thong thong". That garbage is just for bouncing around to. There's no more art to that than there is to a room full of old people after a burrito dinner.

      So, if they want to use some AI software to find out what the next big hit on Total Request Live will be - great. Artists will never be found on TRL as it is, so what do we care what happens with that genre of music?

      I find it unlikely that they'll be applying this to most other fields of music. *shrug*

    6. Re:More white bread, please! by kantai · · Score: 3, Informative

      Oh really? Because many people are composing actual music today right? ...

      Britney Spears, et al != Current Music

      There is other music out there.

    7. Re:More white bread, please! by Mr.Zong · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Uh, we did read both links right?

      This thing picked Norah Jones. Frankly, shes damn talented, and is quite the opposite of this modern day radio crap fest. If anything, this app seems to be telling the brain dead execs that the crap your playing sells well initally, but if you put out quility (like jones) you don't need the marketing blitz (which she didn't get) and you don't need to reinvent the market every year.

      You would think the /. crowd would know better then to guess the outcome of data mining and pattern recognition applications(Look at me! I know how the ANN got it's answer!).

      Lets not forget, the program his to be smarter then those execs making the decisions. It's not possible for it be dumber. Its really not.

    8. Re:More white bread, please! by h0mer · · Score: 3, Insightful

      There's no art in "rock-away" or "drop it like it's hot" or "thong thong thong thong thong". That garbage is just for bouncing around to. There's no more art to that than there is to a room full of old people after a burrito dinner.

      By "Rock-Away", I think you mean Lean Back by Terror Squad featuring Fat Joe, produced by Scott Storch. I find the instrumental part very well done, merging a orchestra sound with heavy drums. In fact, you could say it provoked an emotion from me. I feel "pumped up" when I hear it.

      "Drop It Like It's Hot" is produced by the Neptunes, who are famous for *not* using synths and computers to make their tracks. I find the mouthpops interesting since I haven't heard them used in that way.

      You don't like it, that's fine. You don't have a right to say it's not art, I don't like a lot of classical music but it's certainly art.

      --


      I'm on top of my game like I'm standin' on Xbox.
  2. Sigh by Nastard · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Remember the good old days when the listeners picked the hits?

    Next up: bots that generate pop music.

    1. Re:Sigh by TJ_Phazerhacki · · Score: 3, Insightful

      They dont already?

      --
      Physics is nothing like religion. If it was, we'd have an easier time trying to raise money!
    2. Re:Sigh by CheechBG · · Score: 4, Funny

      Next up: bots that generate pop music.

      They already have bots that do that, they call them boy bands. It was supposed to be bot bands, but I think someone in the 80's screwed it up with Menudo, and the name stuck. What are you going to do...

    3. Re:Sigh by Nastard · · Score: 5, Insightful

      No, the record companies contract people to go and give monetary "incentives" to radio stations to get their picks put into heavier rotation (or into rotation at all). The station plays the song and calls it "hot", and the listeners, all eager to be hip and fresh and on the cutting edge of music, hear the word "hot" and jump all over it.

      Or in some cases, people just hear the same song so many times that it becomes familiar and eventually enjoyable.

      The point, though, is that you're given a multiple choice test when it comes to picking the music you like, and the record companies want to ensure as few choices as possible, and that whichever you pick belongs to them.

  3. This Explains The Success Of ... by strelitsa · · Score: 4, Funny

    Air Supply and Ashlee Simpson.

    --
    No mod points, no meta-moderating/Firehose/all the other free work Slashdot wants me to do.
    1. Re:This Explains The Success Of ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      Take that, Air Supply!

  4. This is not Artificial Intelligence by dtolton · · Score: 4, Informative

    This is not AI. The music companies are using clustering technology.

    The basic idea is that you measure certain characteristics of a song,
    such as voice quality, cadence, etc. I'm sure the actual
    characteristics used are much more complicated, but the idea is the
    same. Once you have your characteristics you can build a three
    dimensional vector out of a song. After you have your three
    dimensional vector, you can then use many different algorithms, one
    such is the Bi-secting K-means algorithm to group the songs together.
    After you have built your cluster, you take a new song, run it through
    the process and check to see how close it falls to a "hit" cluster.

    We use this same process for document classification at my work, and I
    don't think it bears any relation on AI. As I stated above, it's a
    rather simple grouping technique.

    There is a downside to this technology though. By measuring how close a
    song is to previous hits, you are guaranteeing that all new songs will
    be similar to old hits. This type of system tends to minimize or
    eliminate fresh new types of music.

    (why the word wrapping? Emacs auto-fill-mode)

    --

    Doug Tolton

    "The destruction of a value which is, will not bring value to that which isn't." -John Galt
    1. Re:This is not Artificial Intelligence by Mechanik · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Once you have your characteristics you can build a three dimensional vector out of a song.

      Don't you mean an n-dimensional vector? Wouldn't it be only three dimensional if they're only measuring three characteristics?


      Mechanik

  5. For various definitions of success by kent_eh · · Score: 4, Insightful

    many artists are starting to buy it to help them write succesfull songs."

    Comercially successful != good

    --

    ---
    "I can't complain, but sometimes still do..." Joe Walsh
  6. Circular statistics by mfarver · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Is it just me or did the article quote music industry folks as saying the software must work becuase 95% of the hits of the last decade scored highly. The software is a mathmatical model based on the hits of the last century.. so of course it scores them highly.

    1. Re:Circular statistics by pclminion · · Score: 3, Informative
      You've made a very good point.

      In the field of machine learning, it's considered a major no-no to quote performance figures based on your training data.

      The typical way to validate your results is called an N-way cross-validation. You split the data into N parts, and perform N training runs. Each run uses N-1 chunks to train, and tests on the remaining chunk. Then you average the results to get a general performance estimate, or you can use a T-test to compare the results against another algorithm.

      This report would have been rejected immediately from any academic journal of any significance. It's a fucking joke.

  7. The formula by k4_pacific · · Score: 4, Funny

    The program works by applying the formula. It takes three variables.

    Boobs
    The artist must have boobs. The larger they are, the higher this value.

    Blandness
    The blander it is, the higher this value.

    Beat
    The stronger the beat, the higher this value.

    These are multiplied together.

    B * B * B = X

    If X is greater than or equal to the Olivia Newton-John quotient, a recognized standard throughout the popular music business, the song will be a hit and we release an album.

    If X is lower, we don't do one.

    Q: Are there a lot of these kinds of artists?

    You wouldn't believe.

    Q: Which record label to do you work for?

    A major one.

    --
    Unknown host pong.
  8. Is there any escape from noise?!? by sporktoast · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This announcement from the producers of this record contains important information for radio program directors, and is not for broadcast.

    The first cut on this record has been cross-format-focused for airplay success. As you well know, a record must break on radio in order to actually provide a living for the artists involved. Up until now, you've had to make these record-breaking decisions on your own, relying only on perplexing intangibilities like taste and intuition. But now, there's a better way.
    The cut that follows is the product of newly-developed compositional techniques, based on state-of-the-art marketing analysis technology. This cut has been analytically designed to break on radio. And it will, sooner or later.
    For the station that breaks it first, the benefits are obvious. You lead the pack. Yes, no matter what share of this crazy market you do business in, no other release is going to satisfy your corporation's current idea of good radio like this one. On this cut, we're working together, on the same wavelength, in scientific harmony.
    But remember, this cut is constructed for multi-market-breaking NOW. Don't waste valuable research with needless delay. We've done the hard work of insuring your success; the final step is up to you.

    SPECIAL DESIGNER SONG FOLLOWS IN 5.. 4.. 3.. 2.. 1.


    --
    In a related story, the IRS has recently ruled that the cost of Windows upgrades can NOT be deducted as a gambling loss.
  9. Dupe of a Dupe by Gossy · · Score: 3, Informative

    This was discussed last November, which was a repeat of the same tech from February.

    A quick search for "polyphonic" in the music category would've easily picked this up, they're the only 3 matches!

  10. Analize this by Elphin · · Score: 5, Funny
    From the website:
    • The first step in the process for our technologies is to analyze a representative sample of music (up to date we have
    • analized more than 1 Million tracks)
    Analized? Analized? - what dedication these folks have. Brings tears to my eyes.
  11. The real story by sam_handelman · · Score: 3, Funny

    The label's marketing department are promoting him to the Norah Jones audience. But Polyphonic's analysis has shown that the crooner's song patterns are more similar to Linkin Park, Aerosmith and JayZ.

    future HSS developer: You know who I really hate? The record industry.

    future HSS collaborator: Well, you should do something about that.

    future HSS developer: You're right! Recording execs are really, really, stupid. I bet it'd be easy. I've got a plan.

    future HSS collaborator: Sigh... fine, what's your plan?

    future HSS developer: They pay us $6000, and we tell them if their song will be a hit or not, then give them some printouts with, you know, clusters of dots on them, random numbers, whatever. Then we say "Artificial intelligence! The magic boxes say this will be a hit because it resembles Tupac Shakur and Wagner!"

    future HSS collaborator: You know, unlike your plan to hack people's PVRs to make them think they're gay.... this would actually work. Let's do it. Get me a dartboard.

    --
    The good and new comes from no quarter where it is looked for, and is always something different from what is expected.
  12. Southpark anyone? by stevenharman · · Score: 3, Funny

    This sounds a bit familiar... I think the RIAA stole this idea from Southpark. Cartman dressed up like a robot (AWESOM-O) to get secrets from Butters... but he ended up in Hollywood creating blockbuster movie ideas. Here is how it went down:

    Producer: Gentlemen, this little boy was kind enough to let us show you his robot. The AWESOM-O 4000. [approaches the robot, who's seated at one end of the table] I've already seen what he can do.
    Staffer 1: Uh, excuse me sir, but uh, that's not a robot.
    Producer: It's not?
    Staffer 1: No, it clearly had bipedal movement, so the correct term is "computerized automatron."
    Mitch: Oh, very nice, Mitch.
    Staffer 2: You are the smart one.
    Producer: Well, regardless, I believe maybe this automatron can help us come up with new movie ideas.
    Staffer 2: How can a robot come up with better ideas for movies than us?
    Producer: Watch this: AWESOM-O, given the current trends of the movie-going public can you come up with an idea for a movie that will break a hundred million box office?
    Cartman: Um... okay. How about this: [the staffers take pen to paper and anticipate the ideas] Adam Sandler is like, in love with some girl, but then it turns out that the girl is actually a ...golden retriever, or something.
    Staffer 2: [thinking over this idea, then write it down] Oh, perfect!
    Staffer 3: We'll call it "Puppy Love"!
    Staffer 2: Give us another movie idea, AWESOM-O!
    Mitch: Yeah yeah!
    Staffer 3: Let's hear it!
    Mitch: Yeah, we wanna hear it!
    Staffer 3: Come on, come on!
    Cartman: Okay, how about this: Adam Sandler... inherits like, a billion dollars, but first, he has to, like, become a ...boxer, or something.
    Staffer 3: [the producers start writing again] ...Yes, it's flawless! Mitch: Punch-Drunk Billionaire!

    --
    90% of being smart is knowing what you're dumb at.
  13. Re:It is not really art unless you feel something. by tomhudson · · Score: 4, Funny
    It is just stuff or back ground noise.
    AKA: Celine Dion
    In a recent poll, 10% chose Celine Dion. The rest preferred a root canal w/o novocaine.

    Does this remind anyone of the Monty Python skit where they use mathematicians to create the world's funniest joke, and use it to get Nazis to die laughing?

  14. AI and statistics... by Omni-Cognate · · Score: 3, Informative

    ... are intricately related. Many AI techniques are forms of statistical inference or statistical classification techniques. Some neural nets implement grouping techniques not that different from k-means.

    Any box which learns from a set of data in order to predict future data by implicitly extracting trends and patterns from that data is an implementation of some form of statistical inference algorithm and is subject to all of the general results statistics has to offer about such algorithms. Conversely, statistical inference algorithms are often implemented in ways associated with AI, for example as neural nets.

    Given this situation, it's hard to define the boundaries that separate artificial intelligence, pattern recognition, statistical inference and classification and the rest. Of course, there is a legitimate question as to whether such techniques actually mimic genuine intelligence even in principle, and there are other approaches.

    From the point of view of terminology, there is a huge range of techniques that can be called AI, and statistical inference is one of them. If you call a VLSI neural network implementing a statistical inference algorithm "AI", then why not call a normal computer implementing a statistical inference algorithm "AI"? Besides, AI sounds a hell of a lot sexier than statistics when you're trying to extract maximum dough from the ample coffers of the recording industry.

    --

    "The Milliard Gargantubrain? A mere abacus - mention it not."

  15. Re:It is not really art unless you feel something. by Johnny+Mnemonic · · Score: 4, Insightful


    Does this remind anyone of the Monty Python skit where they use mathematicians to create the world's funniest joke, and use it to get Nazis to die laughing?

    Actually, it reminds me of some of Bradbury's more gloomy predictions of the sanitization of the culture that was happening then and is continuing to occur.

    How long until books are written the same way, or at least evaluated by the same kind of tool? I suppose the news media will have it happen to them first: "Sorry, Dan, that story about political hanky-panky rated a 4.5 on our offensive-o-meter, way above the threshold of 3. Put some kittens in it and maybe we can get it to a 2.5."

    --

    --
    $tar -xvf .sig.tar
  16. Re:Personal music assistant by throughthewire · · Score: 4, Interesting
    Somethis that can be configured to an individual's tastes, and which can then sample and select new music from the company's music library. Sort of a 'Tivo Suggests' for music. I'd buy that.

    Like LAUNCHCast before the RIAA leaned on them, and then Yahoo! acquired it and ripped out everything that made it innovative and cool?

    You'd rate songs on a scale from 'never play this again' to 10, and the system would select new songs based on what you'd already rated and insert them into your personal "station" rotation.

    But the real killer feature was that you could search for other users whose tastes were statistically similar to your own, subscribe to their stations, and learn about new and different music and artists as some of their favorites were added to your rotation. Want to buy a song? Click on it.

    Absolutely cool collaborative software. Unfortunately, if you wanted to expend the effort, you could abuse the system to constuct a station that could (gasp!) play a specific song at a specific time for free, and the RIAA wouldn't allow that.

    So the only thing that had gotten me to purchase any new music in years was eviscerated, stuffed full of ads, and then sold to Yahoo! as a 'service' with all the collaboration gone. You could pay money to lose the ads. Whee.

    Bitter? Me?

  17. The Ultimate Melody, by tekrticus · · Score: 3, Interesting

    A short story by Arthur C. Clarke describes one possible consequence of this sort of thing. The scientist involved builds a computer to study the underlying theory of music, harmonic relations, wave analysis, frequency distribution, etc. and how it interacts with the brain on a physiological level. His search is related to the notion that all existing tunes are crude approximations of the fundamental melody that has eluded composers for centuries (basically a rehash of Plato's theory of ideals applied to music.) The scientist is later found in a permanent catatonic state in his lab (by his tone-deaf assistant) with the Ultimate Melody repeating over and over in an endless loop. Because the overwhelming power of the Ultimate Melody (the ideal form on which all melodies in the universe are patterned after), his mind is completely dominated by it--much the same as when a catchy tune gets stuck in your head for days, only much more powerful. The melody formed a fugue in the pathways of his brain, going round and round forever, obliterating all other thoughts.