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Mathematics of the Social Security "Crisis"
ScottyB writes "Here's a good start for reading into the economics and history of the much-discussed 'crisis' in Social Security. It's from the NY Times magazine, so you know the drill...'A Question of Numbers.'"
Oh I forgot, they never put any of this money away for people's retirement like was originally planned. This money is part of their everyday operating expenses. It's just another way to get more tax money.
It's the battle of the minds, and everyone's unarmed.
It's always the same. Every "debate" or discussion about the numbers behind social security and they never talk about the numbers that matter. For people under 35, the most important number is the number of dollars in an employee's pocket on payday after deductions. As things stand right now, there's at least 30 years - at least seven presidential terms - between now and when those people start collecting. Chances are some politician is going to wreck social security between now and then even if the gloom and doom predictions don't come true. That means on top of the hefty deductions from your weekly paycheck, if you're under 35, you also have to assume social security won't be there for you and you have to put that much more money away personally. That is the number that matters.
As for this article... Solving the social security budget gap by adding 2% to the payroll tax sounds great... Tax the corporations! Well, it would be great, but corporations take the payroll tax into account when they determin how much you cost them as an employee. As far as they're concerned, the payroll tax is part of the employee's compensation package... Raise the tax, and you're going to see a corresponding drop in salaries or a corresponding rise in unemployment over the long term.
No additional risk, and with some obvious added benefits. I'd welcome any extra freedom the government threw my way, even if I did not take advantage of it. Not that I personally would invest in US Treasury debt.
The larger fact is that basic problem is a too large federal deficit, not a systemic social security problem, and the proposed "reform" makes the underlying problem worse, not better.
Life is unpredictable not everyone who is down and out is irresponcible. Here is a reality check, you get cancer and your insurance policy drops you, yea it happens. your retirement just went to paying for cemo (sp) the reality is social security is there for a reason. I think you shoudl be allowed to direct the investment of a portion of yoru social security however that should be it.
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO!
Please read this article, it's probably the most well researched and insightful look at the current health of our social security program. The end conclusion: It's Fine. Seriously. No Really. Totally OK.
If you took the worst case scenario given out by the Social Security Trustees as the future exactly as it will happen, Everyone will continue to recieve 100% of benefits until 2048, and then, after that, we'd recieve only 75% of benefits, and the system would continue to hum. That's if the worst case scenario mixture of immigration and ecomonmic slowdown happen, and absolutley NOTHING done to the system. Their realistic scenario call for complete 100% solvency of the system for the next 75 years, again, with NOTHING done to the system.
Social Security is the best running government program ever devised in this country. Everyone here will be able to recieve their retirement benefits that they've been paying into their whole lives.
The Social Security "crisis" stems from that 25% reduction in benefits in 2048. If we were to give everyone 100%, then we'd run about a $3 trillion deficit in SS over the next 75 years, in the mean time, Medicare is projected to start deficit spending in only 10 years, and will run an $11 trillion hole. And both of these self financed systems have a better outlook than out general acocunt budget, the pot of money that pays for the rest of the government. Best guess estimates are that our government will go $15 TRILLION MORE into debt over that same $75 years.
So what is more in crisis, $3 trillion that we don't need to even go into deficit for, or $15 that we absolutely must? Our current $440 billion deficit is the real crisis.
The president and all of the conservative commentors here want to reneg on the deal President Reagan made in 1983 when he reformed social security. He raised payroll taxes beyond the amount needed so we would run a surplus, and that would go into a trust fund that would pay for the burden of the Baby Boomer retirement. That trust fund was mandated by law to buy treasury bills, which have consequently been used to finance the upper class tax cuts. Basically, the president has done a transfer of wealth from the working class who payed more into the system than they had to so the super rich could mooch off the government even more.
I Repeat: SOCIAL SECURITY IS FINE! RTFA!
Th
from Wiki:
State pension systems lack a number of basic features that define Ponzi schemes, and so are fundamentally different:
* There is no belief that there are large profits coming from something; rather, it is clear that these are pay-as-you go systems, where workers (at any given time) are providing money to those who have retired.
* There is no growth of incoming funds driven by the enticement of high returns over a short period of time, with new investors continually entering in order to support payouts to early investors.
* State pension systems are in some way insurance rather than investment systems. A person who dies before retirement gets no money back (regardless of what he/she paid in). Someone who lives to a very old age continues to get payments regardless of the amount of money he/she has paid in.
* Because receipts (taxes) and payouts (entitlements) can be calculated quite accurately in the short term (five to ten years), and predicted (with a range of assumptions) for periods beyond that timeframe, there will never be a sudden collapse.
* General tax revenues can be used to supplement worker payments into the systems, although many taxpayers will be unhappy with such supplementation. Similarly, benefits can be reduced through the political process, either across-the-board or by reducing benefits to the well-off, although there will clearly be opposition by those who will get less.
You're going to pay one way or the other, either you do it in an orderly fashion through a system like Social Security or you pay through externalized costs of destitute elderly. Plan on paying for increases in crime, emergency services, healthcare, etc. Or do you think this nation is going to just let old people starve and freeze in the streets? Would you really treat Veterans who hadn't been able to save enough because of constant medical problems not covered by the VA this way? How do you propose to help people whose pensions the courts have stripped through criminal mismanagement by their former employers? You're method is just tough luck, sucks to be you?
No society has been able to progress and remain competitive with the shortsighted advice you've proposed here. Social Security is just a cheaper way to protect rights than "letting the market take care of it". Wealth equals power, the Social Security payments ensure that old people have the power to defend their rights instead of depending on the government to make sure they aren't violated.
The word justice is all over the Constitution and the Federalist Papers; Social Security fits the Founding Father's idea of justice, hence it's in the Constitution. Your argument about being something that people are unwilling to do for themselves is a canard. Only a half-hearted attempt to understand this nation's founding and history could lead you to the conclusions you've vomited all over this page.
Arrogance is Confidence which lacks integrity. -- me
When something is "the news" we do not expect propaganda, nor do we expect this 3rd-grade relativist "all news is propaganda" bullshit.
Whether you get propaganda is often dependent on your own viewpoint. Consider the following statements that build with each iteration, and consider how they can be taken by people reading them.
Adam was killed.
Adam was killed by Bob.
Adam was killed by Bob with a gun.
Adam was killed by Bob with a gun that was stolen.
Adam was killed by Bob with a gun that was stolen from his roommate.
Adam was killed by Bob with a gun that was stolen from his roommate, who is a police officer.
Depending on the details presented, which are often constrained by time on TV/radio or space in print, one could have various views based on the information presented. It could be a reaction that crime is a problem, that gun ownership is a problem, that gun theft is a problem, that gun storage is a problem, or that carelessness with guns is a problem. Depending on your viewpoint, each person will take each statement differently. For some people, a given statement will reinforce their beliefs, and for others, it will fly in the face of them. Some will be inquisitive and ask for more detail, and some will ignore it entirely because it doesn't affect them.
I bounce around a lot of news organizations -- CNN, Fox, AP, Reuters, NYT, LA Times, OC Register, NPR, and a bunch of others. I even visit Pravda's English site sometimes, if only for the occasional chuckle at the oddities that appear there. Most of the stories are pretty much the same from organization to organization, no matter who originally wrote them, because journalism is, at its core, a pretty basic thing. Who, what, when, where, why, how?
But if the story is more complex, or has conflicting information, then it gets much more difficult. For example, You have ten different sources for information; which information is considered the best? You have some long-time informants telling you one thing, and they've always panned out in the past, but you have two new informants telling you something quite different, neither of which know about each other but whose stories are almost exactly alike. Whom do you believe? Which do you put first in your story, and how much emphasis do you give them? From twelve hours of interviews, which quotes do you select to tell the story the most accurately? What does your gut tell you? Has your gut ever been wrong?
Being a journalist is seriously hard work and can be painful, because no matter what you say, someone is going to say that you said too much or not enough, that you slanted something this way or that. I do not envy them.
You can never go home again... but I guess you can shop there.
Taxes of 12-odd percent of our income are taken for SS.
That's 12.4% (6.2% of which is paid by the employer). Unless, of course, you make more that $87,000, in which case, your rate can be significantly lower. Someone with an annual income of $500,000 would pay about 2.16% in FICA Tax (Federal Insurance Contributions Act, a name we will get back to in a minute). Someone with $500,000 of unearned income (i.e. dividends, capital gains) would pay 0.00% in FICA tax. That makes the Social Security tax a regressive tax, in that low wage earners pay a higher percentage than high wage earners.
If you invested that money in private accounts, you'd be wealthy by the time you retired, even if you made some seriously bad investment decisions.
Yes, and if twinkies grew on pine trees, nobody would ever go hungry. The money is not a pension. It is not a retirement plan. It's not even yours. It's a fee you pay for the privledge of working in this country. In addition, it is an insurance policy. (Note the acronym above "Federal INSURANCE Contributions Act") It's poverty insurance. Congratulations! You're covered.
I'll assume you own a home and pay for fire insurance. I would even bet that your state or local government requires that you purchase fire insurance. With a little luck, your house will never burn down. After 20 years of good luck, are you going to start calling your insurance company to demand "return on your investment?" Feel free to try. Give them a call and tell them you're being "ripped off" because you haven't collected on your investment. Tell them that you're tired of them giving "your" money to people who weren't smart enough not to burn down their houses.
There's a difference between an investment and an expense. Insurance is an expense. Get used to it.
I know it's a social program, it's about the social contract and so on, but if the social contract is as one-sided as SS is, well, I want out. Period.
It IS a social contract. And if you want out of the contract move to Argentina, asshole. That's ssuming they'll take you. That's your way out of Social Security. Go somewhere else. Get a job making sneakers for Nike in Southeast Asia. Do it today and you'll never pay another cent in FICA.
I've never understood how so many the rich in this country think that they get no benefit from taxation. Do you think that your investments would be doing well if senior citizens were starving in the streets. Do you think that the social unrest that comes with extreme poverty is going to leave you untouched? (That's not to mention that the rich are the primary beneficiaries of most of the government spending in this country.)
You want to live here, pay your fair share and stop bitching. If you don't want to pay your fair share, what makes you think we want you here?
If you're making over $100K and you can't find another 12% of your income to stash away, you're doing something wrong. If you're making significantly less than $100K, you're probably going to need social security and you'd better hope it's there when you need it.
By the way, I'm rich... I'm also undertaxed.
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