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Mathematics of the Social Security "Crisis"

ScottyB writes "Here's a good start for reading into the economics and history of the much-discussed 'crisis' in Social Security. It's from the NY Times magazine, so you know the drill...'A Question of Numbers.'"

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  1. Liars by Concern · · Score: 3, Insightful

    In this country, fools and paid liars say whatever they want about an issue on television and, as far as viewers are concerned, get away with it. The enterprise of journalism, which is suppoesed to help citizens in a democracy sort through the sewer of increasingly sophisticated misinformation that comes from a variety of interested parties is in a state of free-fall, either actively subverted by self-interested and sociopathic organizations and individuals, or simply crumbling under the unique demands and exigencies of continued survival in the mass media marketplace.

    The heart of the matter is that when Bill O'Reilly or Sean Hannity lie about something, no one is yet able to mod them down.

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    1. Re:Liars by danheskett · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The enterprise of journalism, which is suppoesed to help citizens in a democracy sort through
      Since when has that been true? Take off your rose colored blinders. That's never what journalism has been about. Journalism has been about promoting a view, detracting from a view, and most of all selling media. If you want to see for yourself, go to a library and look back at 17th, 18th, and 19th century newspapers. Journalism has always been a taudry business. This business about journalists being the crusading do-gooder out to help democray is a post-World War II fantasy.

      and, as far as viewers are concerned, get away with it.
      That's in your opinion. They don't get away with in my view, because I refuse to consume their product and to become their product. Remember, when you watch most media, you are not only consuming their product but you become the product: eyeballs to an advertiser.

      increasingly sophisticated misinformation that comes from a variety of interested parties is in a state of free-fall
      Everything you disagree with is not misinformation. Everyone has an interest. Regardless of how much people might hand-wring about it, everyone has an interest.

      either actively subverted by self-interested and sociopathic organizations and individuals
      What a load of garbage. There are few very issues with objectively correct or incorrect answers or solutions. Individuals or organizations promoting their view is hardly sociopathic.

      or simply crumbling under the unique demands and exigencies of continued survival in the mass media marketplace.
      If you feel like a media outlet is not being principled in the face of competition, than abandon that outlet. There are others. You somehow think that intense competition and corporate involvement with media is new. It's not. It is, again, exceedingly old and well established within this country. You seem to have this perception that before a certain point in history things were good with regards to journalism, and then something happened, and now it is bad.

      The heart of the matter is that when Bill O'Reilly or Sean Hannity lie about something, no one is yet able to mod them down.
      That is not only an amazing generalization but also fundamentally incorrect. Both of the people you mention are fundamentally pushers of opinion. There is very little in terms of opinion which meets the definition of a lie. On top of all that, you are in fact able to "mod them down". Disregard their opinion, and move on to another source.

      It seems like you most upset because people with whom you disagree or believe to be lying are able to have power and influence despite your disapproval of them. This is, despite your view, a truly great thing.

      You need to celebrate diversity. Diversity of thought, diversity of opinion, and diversity of expression. If you can't accept a point of view, or the person giving it, then ignore that person and move on. There is no need to clamor for censorship.

    2. Re:Liars by Concern · · Score: 3, Informative

      Your second paragraph bit off your first. I guess you realized what I was going to say in advance: Fox News Network puts paid liars on TV. It lies about its motives and its methods. When it's convenient, its talking heads are "commentators" and are supposed to be excused for their more blatant prevarications. They know full well their audience doesn't understand the distinction any more than they know who was behind 9-11. They just think they are "watching the news."

      Making this point in itself is deceptive, since egregious bias in Fox News Network's ostensible "hard journalism" is well-documented.

      If you think Conservatism is special and its army of propagandists, advocates, and other helpers would do it for free, you are dreaming.

      We have always put journalists on a pedestal in this country, because we understand their importance to our way of life. Bias in journalism is like drunk driving among teenagers. Some conservatives say, let's take away the rules, since "you'll never stop those kids anyway," but I think the adults in the country know better - let alone remember better, from pretty recent times.

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    3. Re:Liars by AtariAmarok · · Score: 3, Insightful
      "Making this point in itself is deceptive, since egregious bias in Fox News Network's ostensible "hard journalism" is well-documented"

      Some of it is, indeed. Some however is nothing more than groups like FAIR trying to get Fox censored for not sharing FAIR's political views (you know, the groups that push for "their" bias in media, and can't stand anyone else's).

      "If you think Conservatism is special and its army of propagandists, advocates, and other helpers would do it for free, you are dreaming"

      No. I think that conservativism is like any movement. It has its zealots and "true believers": the Limbaughs, Hannity's, Buckleys etc who would hold their beliefs even if they weren't big media figures. Yes, they would do it for free.

      "They know full well their audience doesn't understand the distinction any more than they know who was behind 9-11. "

      Call it luck or whatever, but Fox News was the first to report who was behind 9-11.

      --
      Don't blame Durga. I voted for Centauri.
    4. Re:Liars by Concern · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Journalism has always been a taudry business.

      That's tawdry.

      We have always put journalists on a pedestal in this country, because we understand their importance to our way of life.

      Bias in journalism is like drunk driving among teenagers. Some Conservatives say, let's take away the rules, since "you'll never stop those kids anyway," but I think the adults in the country know better - let alone remember better, from pretty recent times.

      That's in your opinion.

      No. That's a fact.

      Do I need to cite surveys confirming widely held beliefs among Americans in various notorious items of misinformation?

      Everything you disagree with is not misinformation. Everyone has an interest. Regardless of how much people might hand-wring about it, everyone has an interest.

      Translation: everything is fine. No need to worry as we gut the rule book and change the face of American mass media.

      Individuals or organizations promoting their view is hardly sociopathic.

      Why have the news at all? Why not just have 24/7 commercials?

      This is not Soviet Russia. People here have jobs, and we expect them to do them. When something is "the news" we do not expect propaganda, nor do we expect this 3rd-grade relativist "all news is propaganda" bullshit. We can perfectly well tell the difference between CBS and Fox News Network.

      I wonder if your bank cleaned out your account, you would claim it was your own fault, because "I'm a sucker for trusting them with all that money."

      You somehow think that intense competition and corporate involvement with media is new. It's not. It is, again, exceedingly old and well established within this country. You seem to have this perception that before a certain point in history things were good with regards to journalism, and then something happened, and now it is bad.

      You seem to be ignorant of the history of regulation in American media.

      Google the Fairness Doctrine.

      What's happening now on television and radio is quite new. Things were much better even 10 years ago. Basically, we had a successful conservative-sponsored scheme to eliminate the rules.

      Both of the people you mention are fundamentally pushers of opinion

      Fox News Network puts paid liars on TV. It lies about its motives and its methods. When it's convenient, its talking heads are "commentators" and are supposed to be excused for their more blatant prevarications. They know full well their audience doesn't understand the distinction any more than they know who was behind 9-11. They just think they are "watching the news."

      Making this point in itself is deceptive, since egregious bias in Fox News Network's ostensible "hard journalism" is well-documented.

      It seems like you most upset because people with whom you disagree or believe to be lying are able to have power and influence despite your disapproval of them.

      I am upset because there is nothing that separates this country from China but journalists and voting booths, and some Conservatives are in the process of crossing journalists off the list.

      Diversity of thought, diversity of opinion, and diversity of expression. If you can't accept a point of view, or the person giving it, then ignore that person and move on. There is no need to clamor for censorship.

      I do not clamor for censorship, and your misunderstanding is telling. Moderation on slashdot does not censor anything. It does what it is designed to do; control prominence; making the good stuff rise to the top, and relegating bad ideas, incorrect facts, propaganda, deception, and trolling to the bottom.

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    5. Re:Liars by starseeker · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "There are few very issues with objectively correct or incorrect answers or solutions."

      There are, however, quite a number that do have "correct" answers if you are willing to postulate that the commercial interests of a small number of people should not be more important than the good of the community.

      This is true at local, state, national, and world scales.

      The media used to regard the news as public service, and not so much a source of profit. This changed when they noticed two facts - their news hours have very high viewership by people who earn and spend money, and that even more people tuned in for senational news. I saw a history of TV with regards to that point, and IIRC there were three or four major scandals that got national coverage which were the beginning of the end. So yes it's never been great, but I think it is worse now. Any time news is treated as a money maker, you can forget about hearing about important issues from ANY viewpoint. It's too much like work to listen to important issues.

      I agree censorship is a bad idea, but the problem with a pervasive, persuasive and centralized media (e.g. ClearChannel) in a democracy is that without a critically thinking population the system becomes unstable. A functioning democracy is a self correcting system, but a hidden dependancy of that system is that accurate, verifiable information is provided to the people who must make the decisions. I.e., the voters. It's usually AVAILABLE, granted, but if they don't have it and settle for what they are told by an organized media the end result is EXACTLY the same as if they don't have it. If you can get statistically large numbers of them to dance to your tune, you have effectively taken over the country. The key question is, do enough people engage critical thinking to avoid the electorate being systematically manipulated by misinformation?

      Not that I advocate changing the system, except perhaps to compel news programs to function on a non-profit basis. People get the government they deserve in a democracy, that's pretty much the rule. So it's up to them, and if they want to throw it away they can.

      --
      "I object to doing things that computers can do." -- Olin Shivers, lispers.org
    6. Re:Liars by Martin+Blank · · Score: 5, Insightful

      When something is "the news" we do not expect propaganda, nor do we expect this 3rd-grade relativist "all news is propaganda" bullshit.

      Whether you get propaganda is often dependent on your own viewpoint. Consider the following statements that build with each iteration, and consider how they can be taken by people reading them.

      Adam was killed.
      Adam was killed by Bob.
      Adam was killed by Bob with a gun.
      Adam was killed by Bob with a gun that was stolen.
      Adam was killed by Bob with a gun that was stolen from his roommate.
      Adam was killed by Bob with a gun that was stolen from his roommate, who is a police officer.

      Depending on the details presented, which are often constrained by time on TV/radio or space in print, one could have various views based on the information presented. It could be a reaction that crime is a problem, that gun ownership is a problem, that gun theft is a problem, that gun storage is a problem, or that carelessness with guns is a problem. Depending on your viewpoint, each person will take each statement differently. For some people, a given statement will reinforce their beliefs, and for others, it will fly in the face of them. Some will be inquisitive and ask for more detail, and some will ignore it entirely because it doesn't affect them.

      I bounce around a lot of news organizations -- CNN, Fox, AP, Reuters, NYT, LA Times, OC Register, NPR, and a bunch of others. I even visit Pravda's English site sometimes, if only for the occasional chuckle at the oddities that appear there. Most of the stories are pretty much the same from organization to organization, no matter who originally wrote them, because journalism is, at its core, a pretty basic thing. Who, what, when, where, why, how?

      But if the story is more complex, or has conflicting information, then it gets much more difficult. For example, You have ten different sources for information; which information is considered the best? You have some long-time informants telling you one thing, and they've always panned out in the past, but you have two new informants telling you something quite different, neither of which know about each other but whose stories are almost exactly alike. Whom do you believe? Which do you put first in your story, and how much emphasis do you give them? From twelve hours of interviews, which quotes do you select to tell the story the most accurately? What does your gut tell you? Has your gut ever been wrong?

      Being a journalist is seriously hard work and can be painful, because no matter what you say, someone is going to say that you said too much or not enough, that you slanted something this way or that. I do not envy them.

      --
      You can never go home again... but I guess you can shop there.
    7. Re:Liars by EinarH · · Score: 3, Interesting
      Maybe that is the problem with media in USA (and Europe too) today. As a percantage of the total less than 5% (pulling number out of the air) is probably willing to spend time fact checking news, getting a second opinion from someone they disagree with or confronting their own beliefs. As a European, Social security in USA is none of my business, but after discussing this with a friend of mine I decided to take a look at the information out there. And the most frightening is all the propaganda about a "collapse" out there. When anyone that is pro privtatization out there talks about the shortfall (the date spending starts to exceed revenues) they talk about it as if thats the date all the money will be spent. Like "Imagine that you the poor retiree vistits the bank to collect your monthly check and they say: Sorry the fund is empty. Bad luck." No one bothers to explain the uncertainity of the predictions behind estimating the future economy or explaining the possible problems associated with borrowing money to fund the existing soscial security as they continue their "plan". And they (conservatives/pro market folks/think tanks ) _always_ mention the year 2018 even though the Social Security trustees belive 2042 is the year and the Congressional Budget Office belive 2053.

      On the other hand the pro-"leave it as it is" crowd rarely mention the coming boom of retirees and the growth in the number of retirees combined with a shrinking work force. For example; if people live too 100 in stead of 80 because of better nutrition, care and medicine it could cause problem with much higher health care costs than previously though. And the existing solution fail to account for the the slackers that work far less than they could.

      So I have come to the conclusion that something needs to be done with the system at a point. But, and there is this this big but, at the same time I don't think the proposed solution is a good one. It seems to create far more problems than it solves. It is basically a free market solution with an add on to solve some of the problems with the people allready "inside" the existing soulution. Since they need to be covered in the future even if their children ("we under 30") stops funding them, Mr Bush needs to visit the bank and borrow an awful lot of money. I don't remember the exact number but i belive it was around $3 Trillion.

      Also the new system places a lot of faith on both the market as a mechanism to handle money effectly without waste and more importantly peoples ability to handle their own money on the market. Quite frankly I don't think people will be able to handle their pension. Even if they are forced to invest them somewhere under some program people will waste them on stupid funds, expensive stock and all sort of scams that will pop up. I have faith in Wall Streets ability to lobby the administrators that regulate this new solution but I also think that many folks will lose much or substantial parts of their investment. Just look at how many people today pay insane amounts on various fees and administartion costs on their index funds.
      One might think that well that is those peoples problem and lets leave it to Darwin, but there is this problem about what all those partially broke people will do when they approach retirement. My guess is that all those retirees close to 40% of the population and maybe 50% of the voters will vote for a social security system anyway.

      So allthough I belive that something needs to be done in the long term; I don't think Mr. Bush is the man to handle such a big reform. Of Bush 20 biggest contributors at least 15 of them, and all in the top 5, have serious finanial interests in this reform and I belive much of the money will eventually end up in their hands.

      So as long as the system doesn't need to be changed now I see no reason to change it now with the risk of a failed reform.

      Anyway; just my opinion.

      --

      Melius mori in libertate quam vivere in servitute.

    8. Re:Liars by OwnedByTwoCats · · Score: 3, Informative
      On the other hand the pro-"leave it as it is" crowd rarely mention the coming boom of retirees and the growth in the number of retirees combined with a shrinking work force. For example; if people live too 100 in stead of 80 because of better nutrition, care and medicine it could cause problem with much higher health care costs than previously though. And the existing solution fail to account for the the slackers that work far less than they could.


      The coming boom in retirees was forseen twenty two years ago, and they enacted a plan to take care of them: they raised taxes to create the Social Security Surplus.

      There is no SS crisis. And the privatization plan being floated cuts benefits more than the "do nothing" approach under the most pessimistic economic assumptions.

      There were no WMDs, either. Judge the folks by their track record.
    9. Re:Liars by learn+fast · · Score: 3, Insightful

      As for the people you mention, they advertise heavily that they provide opinion, "analysis" of the events of the day. This isn't journalism, and they dont claim it to be.

      You obviously haven't watched them, have you? They will only --ever-- say that what they are saying is opinion when they've made a serious mistake and want to avoid being held responsible. In any condition other than that they loudly insist that they are totally objective, spin-free, fair, balanced and damn anyone else who doesn't think so. Seriously, watch Fox and see this pattern unfold.

    10. Re:Liars by nelsonal · · Score: 4, Informative

      The Economist is also quite good, but not cheap. It seems like they have fewer articles but each leaves you with a decent amount of knowledge about a subject. I also like that on the subjects I know more than the average journalist about, tech and finanacial news, they generally hit the important notes which makes me feel much better when reading an article on Eastern European politics or other topics I know considerably less about.

      --
      Degaussing scares the bad magnetism out of the monitor and fills it with good karma.
  2. the real agenda by titaniam · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The goal of the republicans is not to revamp social security. The goal is to abolish it entirely, along with medicaid. The easiest way to do so is to completely break it by privatizing it, while at the same time bankrupting the government. Then, of course, the private managers will be to blame. Something will have to go to balance the budget... and then they will eliminate social security. Now the tax cuts and war start to make sense. Expect a budget crisis shortly!

    1. Re:the real agenda by brainstyle · · Score: 3, Interesting
      Man, I'm a hard-working, well-paid highly educated guy just like lots of people here on Slashdot, but I gotta say... I really, really wish I didn't have to work. I hate working. I like doing what I do, but I wish I didn't have to do it. I dream of being the idle rich.

      In all honesty, I'd be more than happy if the government could help me live a decent life with me working less. I don't know why we have to work as much as we do; 40 hours a week doing a job is way too much time. There are so many other things I'd rather be doing with that time. I'm sure a lot of other people feel like this, too.

      I don't understand why work is seen as a virtue. Just doin' a job for the sake of doin' a job sucks. I don't see how that makes you a good person.

      --
      "Why can't everyone just be straight with me?"
      "Because we live in a bendy world, dear."
  3. I can fix the problem by crunk · · Score: 5, Insightful
    How about instead of private accounts we just get to keep our money instead?

    Oh I forgot, they never put any of this money away for people's retirement like was originally planned. This money is part of their everyday operating expenses. It's just another way to get more tax money.

    --
    It's the battle of the minds, and everyone's unarmed.
    1. Re:I can fix the problem by bostonkarl · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I really wish this could be the solution. As someone who is avidly saving for my own retirement (to supplement/supplant whatever I might possibly get from SS), I wish folks would do the same.

      But, alas, people don't save. Instead they run up credit card debt. Rather than have savings that reap modest interest/dividend gains which accumulate over time, they pay out double digit interest on short term debt. That, unfortunately is the nature of our instant gratification lives.

      What to do? I am in support of some sort of FORCED savings. You are required to do something to save sensibly for requirement, because I don't want to pay welfare for people that never saved or squandered their retirement savings. (And, no, I'm not a fan of people starving on the street.) We don't want welfare to replace SS. We want to either to fix SS or replace it.

      Do I trust the govenment to do the best job of this? Nope. Do I trust private interests to do the best job of this? I'm not sure I do. Enron, World Com, etc. has made me re-evaluate my trust in how forthcoming and reliable the private sector is. Remember the Savings and Loan failures in the 80's?

      What I am left to consider is that diversification is probably the best option, spread between both low-risk private and government programs.

      One thing I do believe firmly is that the average person wont save suffiently if not required to do so.

    2. Re:I can fix the problem by jhoffmann · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Actually, that is insurance. I pay car insurance every six months but I've never used it, I may never. I gotta have it to drive though.

  4. Re:Shocked, shocked I am by Quill_28 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    What you need to know is that if you are under 35, it doesn't take that much saving to be set by the time you are 65.

    And don't depend are social security, I know that I am not.

  5. I've read this article before it was on /.... by doormat · · Score: 4, Insightful

    and basically it says that there is a greate deal of misinformation coming from the right.

    Over the next 75 years, SS will run at a loss of 3.3T USD. Sounds like a lot huh? Well by comparison, the Bush tax cuts (both of them) will result in less revenue to the tune of 11.6T USD over the next 75 years. So even if you revoke 30% of the Bush tax cut, you can pay for SS over the next 75 years (or maybe a little more to cover interest since they tax revenue and SS benefits demand dont have similar demand curves).

    --
    The Doormat

    If you're not outraged, then you're not paying attention.
    1. Re:I've read this article before it was on /.... by wizarddc · · Score: 3, Informative

      This is exactly what Presidents Reagan and Clinton did to save Social Security. They raised the upper bracket tax rate from 33 to 35%, and increased the payroll tax to 12.5% to make our nations social contract solvent.

      --
      Th
    2. Re:I've read this article before it was on /.... by That's+Unpossible! · · Score: 3, Insightful

      and basically it says that there is a greate deal of misinformation coming from the right.

      I'm not right or left, I'm central. But, please tell me what platform Al Gore ran on in 2000. I do recall being hit on the head with the phrase "lock box" about a billion times. The Democrats are notorious for running on platforms of "But my opponent wants to plunder Social Security and hates old people!"

      Of course the numbers are political. But the reality is this:

      - Politicians don't know how to reduce spending.
      - Politicians have been spending the SS income rather than investing it for years now.
      - There are going to be more people collecting from SS when the baby boomers retire than there will be contributing to it.
      - Politicians bought votes in years past by adjusting the cost of living based on wage inflation, versus the previous (more reasonable) way of calculating it based on regular inflation.

      It's time to pay the piper.

      If you raise taxes, it won't help social security, it will result in more spending, though. Want proof? Please refer to the last 70 years of spending increases by the government.

      I don't agree with Bush on much, but I like his ideas for SS reform. It's a broken system. You can either start to fix it, or you can try to prop it up until it completely collapses.

      --
      Ironically, the word ironically is often used incorrectly.
    3. Re:I've read this article before it was on /.... by deKernel · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Let's see, we just now are recovering from a recession and the federal income went down compared to five years ago.

      Nothing like looking at one number and not seeing or even understanding what it all means.

    4. Re:I've read this article before it was on /.... by AK+Marc · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Wait, that means there's problems 14 years from now. And major problems in 48 years.

      No, there isn't a problem at all. The governemnt has robbed the SS fund for years, diverting payments into the general fund and buying tanks and such with SS funds. SS will be viable as long as the governemnt makes the payments. When it is easier to pretend it is just another income source, they rob it blind. When it becomes a drain, then they pretend it is an independent program that can't be paid for out of the general fund.

      Notice that prior to the present time that there was a surplus? Where is that money? Why wasn't that set aside to pay for future SS needs? The SS problem isn't one of the future, it is one of the past. We were robbed. The reparations would be to take the future money needed from the same place the stolen funds were diverted, the general fund.

    5. Re:I've read this article before it was on /.... by admiralh · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm not right or left, I'm central. But, please tell me what platform Al Gore ran on in 2000. I do recall being hit on the head with the phrase "lock box" about a billion times. The Democrats are notorious for running on platforms of "But my opponent wants to plunder Social Security and hates old people!"

      Bush may not hate old people, but he certainly wants to plunder Social Security.

      Remember, Bush and his supporters are ideological conservatives, and as such they are ideologically opposed to "wasteful" social programs, because they believe that giving things that aren't earned to people is immoral (fostering dependency). Social Security is by far the most successful U.S. social program ever, in that it has fostered a tremendous increase in the standard of living for retirees. Since a successful social program would endanger mass acceptance of their worldview, they are trying to destroy it, thereby "proving" that the conservative worldview is the correct one.

      Let's examine some of your other assertions:

      Politicians don't know how to reduce spending.

      Sure they do. Just not the kind of spending they like. Liberal politicians would love to eliminate spending for missile defence, and conservatives want to eliminate spending for Head Start.

      Politicians have been spending the SS income rather than investing it for years now.

      True. But SS was never designed as a "retirement savings" system. It was more like, "You pay to support your elders, and your youngers will pay to support you". There is a baby-boom bubble coming, and it will require increased taxes/reduced benefits to cover it, but it's not a crisis. It's fixable, and it's temporary.

      There are going to be more people collecting from SS when the baby boomers retire than there will be contributing to it.

      This statement is just plain wrong. If it were true, there would be more people over 65 than there are in the work force 18-65, which just doesn't compute. There will be a bubble, where they ratio may drop to 2 workers to 1 retiree, but it's temporary.

      Politicians bought votes in years past by adjusting the cost of living based on wage inflation, versus the previous (more reasonable) way of calculating it based on regular inflation.

      I'm in complete agreement with you here. And furthermore, this change alone would make the system solvent therough the baby-boom bubble. Nothing else need be done.

      If you raise taxes, it won't help social security, it will result in more spending, though. Want proof? Please refer to the last 70 years of spending increases by the government.

      70 years? Where did that come from? Ah yes. 1935. The Great Depression. Americans were literally starving in the streets.

      There's a reason for government spending and social programs. It's to smooth out the peaks and valleys in the natural economic system.

      I don't agree with Bush on much, but I like his ideas for SS reform. It's a broken system. You can either start to fix it, or you can try to prop it up until it completely collapses.

      You sound like you've been reading too many White House or Cato Institute press releases. The system is not broken. There is no crisis. This "crisis" is being manufactured by the right-wing because that's the only way they'll convince moderates to go along with such a risky, reactionary, and thoughoughly unecessary return to 1929.

      --
      Hopelessly pedantic since 1963.
    6. Re:I've read this article before it was on /.... by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 3, Interesting
      Notice that prior to the present time that there was a surplus?

      Funny thing about that "surplus" - while the deficit was (supposedly) negative, our National Debt was still increasing.

      For historical purposes, here's the National Debt during Clinton's terms in office:

      09/29/2000 - $5,674,178,209,886.86
      09/30/1999 - $5,656,270,901,615.43
      09/30/1998 - $5,526,193,008,897.62
      09/30/1997 - $5,413,146,011,397.34
      09/30/1996 - $5,224,810,939,135.73
      09/29/1995 - $4,973,982,900,709.39
      09/30/1994 - $4,692,749,910,013.32
      09/30/1993 - $4,411,488,883,139.38

      Notice that it got larger EVERY year, even the ones where we were running a "Surplus"?

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  6. The answer is obvious... by Realistic_Dragon · · Score: 4, Funny

    ...and it solves both the food and the social security problem in one fel swoop.

    --
    Beep beep.
  7. Gah! by ivan256 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It's always the same. Every "debate" or discussion about the numbers behind social security and they never talk about the numbers that matter. For people under 35, the most important number is the number of dollars in an employee's pocket on payday after deductions. As things stand right now, there's at least 30 years - at least seven presidential terms - between now and when those people start collecting. Chances are some politician is going to wreck social security between now and then even if the gloom and doom predictions don't come true. That means on top of the hefty deductions from your weekly paycheck, if you're under 35, you also have to assume social security won't be there for you and you have to put that much more money away personally. That is the number that matters.

    As for this article... Solving the social security budget gap by adding 2% to the payroll tax sounds great... Tax the corporations! Well, it would be great, but corporations take the payroll tax into account when they determin how much you cost them as an employee. As far as they're concerned, the payroll tax is part of the employee's compensation package... Raise the tax, and you're going to see a corresponding drop in salaries or a corresponding rise in unemployment over the long term.

    1. Re:Gah! by multiplexo · · Score: 4, Interesting
      Social Security could be put on a sounder financial basis by eliminating the portion of the tax paid by corporations, increasing the amount of income subject to FICA witholding and applying FICA witholding to all income including short and long term capital gains, interest income, etc. Right now SS acts as a brake on employment, it's a "payroll" tax, and the percentage paid by corporations works to discourage them from employing people and it also really screws over the self-employed.

      The idea that SS taxes shouldn't be applied to capital gains and other forms of income is basically a huge giveaway to the rich. Now I know that some /.'er is going to talk about how we are in an ownership society and lots of people who aren't rich own stock and blah, blah, fucking blah, but if you look at the numbers you'll see that the people who make most of the money from capital gains and the like are pretty damned wealthy. I see no reason why they should enjoy a separate tax system designed to shield their gains while those of us who take home a paycheck as our primary source of income have an entirely separate tax system.

      --
      cheap labor conservatives - they want to keep you hungry enough to be thankful for minimum wage.
    2. Re:Gah! by fizbin · · Score: 5, Informative
      The retirement age hasn't kept pace with advances in life expectancy. But it's not politically savy to tell people you can retire at 65...no wait, make that 67...oops hang on, better make that 70...or maybe 72.

      Well, this makes sense only if you use the life expectancy at age 18 (or 21, or whatever your cutoff is for when someone enters the workforce). Life expectancy at birth is a stupid measure to use for this, because having a bunch of children die before the age of 1 affects social security not a bit. (They don't pay in, and they don't withdraw)

      So how has life expectancy changed over the last century? Well, in one sense, it's risen dramatically - the life expectancy at birth is now something like 15 years longer than it was in 1940. However, most of that increase is due to advancements in keeping children from dying. At the other end of the spectrum, someone who made it to 65 in 1940 could expect to live, on average, another 12.7 years. Nowadays, they could expect to live another 15.3. That's a whopping 2.6 year increase. (I admit, the increase has been greater for women now that we've gotten better at diagnosing breast cancer - a woman who reaches age 65 now can look forward to 4.9 years more than one could who reached age 65 in 1940)

      Remember this: life expectancy for adults today is not radically different than it was 60 years ago. The difference is that today we don't have as many children being wiped out by childhood diseases, so the average looks much higher if you watch the wrong statistic.

      Reference: http://www.ssa.gov/history/lifeexpect.html
    3. Re:Gah! by John+Newman · · Score: 4, Interesting
      As things stand right now, there's at least 30 years - at least seven presidential terms - between now and when those people start collecting. Chances are some politician is going to wreck social security between now and then even if the gloom and doom predictions don't come true.
      Funny thing is, Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan - speaking for the nascent conservative wing of he Republican party - were saying the exact same thing forty-one years ago. Social Security was one of the central themes of the 1964 campaign. Glance over the bits about SS in Reagan's televised address in support of Goldwater. If you adjust the numbers for inflation, and didn't know the context, you'd think it was a GWB stump speech. The rhetoric is exactly the same today as it was then. Except, of course, SS has done just fine over the last 41 years, and after the Reagan/Greenspan reforms in the 80s it will do just fine for about the next forty or fifty years.

      SS is not in crisis - not within any reasonable horizon, and probably not at all. The general budget deficit, our foreign debt, and our current accounts deficit are all very serious crises, right now. Crises that are already imparing the national security of the United States, and that run a real risk of substantially affecting our standard of living in the near future. Why can't we, for once, focus on actual problems and have real discussion about them, rather then descending into ideologically-driven drivel?
  8. "broken" my windows by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    If Social Security is "broken" now, then the rest of the budget is HORRIBLY BROKEN. They currently use the surplus of SS to pay off a large portion of the deficit. The rest of the deficit is being paid for by our children and grandchildren.

  9. Re:End Social Security by gowen · · Score: 3, Insightful
    What's wrong with just letting people save money on their own for their retirement?
    There's nothing wrong with it that can't be cured by allowing destitute senior citizens to starve to death on the streets.

    It would, after all, be their own fault, for failing to save properly for old age.
    --
    Athletic Scholarships to universities make as much sense as academic scholarships to sports teams.
  10. Re:End Social Security by PornMaster · · Score: 3, Insightful

    They suffer the consequences of their inaction and/or ignorance? God forbid we expect people to be responsible for themselves...

  11. Re:End Social Security by John+Hurliman · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Because most people have no idea how to save money for retirement. So a few people properly plan their retirement and do better than they would with Social Security, while everyone else blows their money on late night infomercial products or has it swindled away by private enterprises promising you will "Retire with a million dollars!". This puts an additional burden on the welfare system, and worse, these people are retired so they have no chance of going on welfare-to-work programs or similar things. The economic dead weight from letting people blow their retirement savings and then looking for a free handout would be tremendous.

  12. I want out by zcollier · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Regardless of the solvency or lack thereof in the system, I want out.

    The real problem that I see is that my parents signed me up as a child. I don't want to be in. I don't want to have to be in to get a job.

    I think that is the biggest problem. I don't have any choice in the matter, and unlike any other retirement scheme (IRA, Roth IRA, 401k, annuity), I can't get out if or when I want.

    So much for Land of the Free.

    --
    $u(k 1t!!!!11!
    1. Re:I want out by the_demiurge · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You have to follow traffic laws to drive a car. You have to pay sales tax when you buy a chair from a store. You have to pay into social security to get a job. Sucks, doesn't it?

      Maybe you want to move to a desert island.

    2. Re:I want out by zeoslap · · Score: 3, Insightful

      and if for some reason, your investments crash just before you retire and you find yourself with no money what then? Do you really think the government could let you and those like you starve? Of course not.

  13. What's wrong? by benhocking · · Score: 4, Insightful
    What's wrong with just letting people save money on their own for their retirement? I say we end Social Security and let people plan for themselves.

    Basically, what's wrong is that many people do not save money for their retirement. No doubt, most of these people do not read /., and yet are probably still aware that they should be saving money for their retirement, but either lack the ability or the will to do so.

    The easy answer is to say, "Oh well, that's their fault," but when these people get to be in their 60's, 70's, etc., we as a society are not going to simply let them starve, go homeless, get sick, etc. Social Security could be scaled back by extending the age of collection, etc., and/or it's functionality could be wrapped up into other welfare programs, but it cannot be simply dropped.

    Additionally, Social Security is something like a Ponzi scheme, and as such, if you stop paying into it now, then those who have already paid into it won't be able to get back what they put into it. So, it's either tough luck for the under-[insert age here] crowd in the future, or it's tough luck for the baby boomers now. Guess who will win that one?

    --
    Ben Hocking
    Need a professional organizer?
  14. You can always invest in Treasury debt by j.+andrew+rogers · · Score: 5, Interesting
    Seriously, if people are so concerned about investing in the stock market, there is nothing to prevent them from investing all the money in their private accounts in US Treasury debt like it is now. They could simulate their own private Social Security Administration, only better.

    No additional risk, and with some obvious added benefits. I'd welcome any extra freedom the government threw my way, even if I did not take advantage of it. Not that I personally would invest in US Treasury debt.

    1. Re:You can always invest in Treasury debt by poot_rootbeer · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I'm not worried that *I* would make bad investments in stocks and bonds and end up penniless come retirement time. I'm worried that *other people* will invest their Social Security funds unwisely and will need new public funding just to stay alive; I don't want my kids and grandkids to have to foot THAT bill in addition to their own retirement planning.

  15. Re:This whole "There is no crisis" by HenryFlower · · Score: 5, Insightful
    A few facts:

    1. The "crisis" that is potentially 40 years away is that SS will be taking more money out than has been put in/set aside. That's not great, but is not the end of the world (it's not doom), and has happened multiple times in the past.
    2. The 40 year date is a very conservative one -- it's probably more, and could be infinite
    3. *Very* small adjustments could move that time horizon to the infinite future even under conservative economic assumptions


    The larger fact is that basic problem is a too large federal deficit, not a systemic social security problem, and the proposed "reform" makes the underlying problem worse, not better.

  16. Or the generator! by antdude · · Score: 3, Informative

    Click here. Used NYT Link Generator.

    --
    Ant(Dude) @ Quality Foraged Links (AQFL.net) & The Ant Farm (antfarm.ma.cx / antfarm.home.dhs.org).
  17. Re:Shocked, shocked I am by KiltedKnight · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Actually, those of us who are just a little over 35 are too.

    The problem is that more and more people are drawing on the system because people are living longer. At the time it was passed, very few people lived much past the age of about 60, let alone 65. It was designed as a "pay as you go" system, so your money is not really put aside for you somewhere so that it can earn interest. Your money is used to pay the benefits of those currently collecting. Your benefits (assuming the system is around that long) will be paid by those who are paying into the system when you retire.

    I've even tried to look into taking my parents onto my health policy, but federal law won't allow it for the reverse. After years of being on my dad's policy while growing up, I am legally not allowed to take him onto mine now that both he and mom are retired. Wouldn't it be nice to have an option to do something like "no medicare withholding because one or both over-65 parents are classified as dependents"? Sure, the health insurance companies would balk and probably start up all kinds of FUD and lobbying against it. Why? They've become more concerned with making money than doing what they're supposed to do... cover your health care expenses.

    --
    OCO is Loco
  18. this is unrealistic by Brigadier · · Score: 5, Insightful


    Life is unpredictable not everyone who is down and out is irresponcible. Here is a reality check, you get cancer and your insurance policy drops you, yea it happens. your retirement just went to paying for cemo (sp) the reality is social security is there for a reason. I think you shoudl be allowed to direct the investment of a portion of yoru social security however that should be it.

  19. Re:End Social Security by laertes · · Score: 4, Funny

    Social commentary from someone with the username PornMaster that offends as it invokes God? It must be slashdot.

    --

    Yes, I'm still a junky. Are you still a bitch?
  20. Re:Shocked, shocked I am by wizarddc · · Score: 5, Informative

    NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO!

    Please read this article, it's probably the most well researched and insightful look at the current health of our social security program. The end conclusion: It's Fine. Seriously. No Really. Totally OK.

    If you took the worst case scenario given out by the Social Security Trustees as the future exactly as it will happen, Everyone will continue to recieve 100% of benefits until 2048, and then, after that, we'd recieve only 75% of benefits, and the system would continue to hum. That's if the worst case scenario mixture of immigration and ecomonmic slowdown happen, and absolutley NOTHING done to the system. Their realistic scenario call for complete 100% solvency of the system for the next 75 years, again, with NOTHING done to the system.

    Social Security is the best running government program ever devised in this country. Everyone here will be able to recieve their retirement benefits that they've been paying into their whole lives.

    The Social Security "crisis" stems from that 25% reduction in benefits in 2048. If we were to give everyone 100%, then we'd run about a $3 trillion deficit in SS over the next 75 years, in the mean time, Medicare is projected to start deficit spending in only 10 years, and will run an $11 trillion hole. And both of these self financed systems have a better outlook than out general acocunt budget, the pot of money that pays for the rest of the government. Best guess estimates are that our government will go $15 TRILLION MORE into debt over that same $75 years.

    So what is more in crisis, $3 trillion that we don't need to even go into deficit for, or $15 that we absolutely must? Our current $440 billion deficit is the real crisis.

    The president and all of the conservative commentors here want to reneg on the deal President Reagan made in 1983 when he reformed social security. He raised payroll taxes beyond the amount needed so we would run a surplus, and that would go into a trust fund that would pay for the burden of the Baby Boomer retirement. That trust fund was mandated by law to buy treasury bills, which have consequently been used to finance the upper class tax cuts. Basically, the president has done a transfer of wealth from the working class who payed more into the system than they had to so the super rich could mooch off the government even more.

    I Repeat: SOCIAL SECURITY IS FINE! RTFA!

    --
    Th
  21. Re:End Social Security by The+Good+Reverend · · Score: 3, Insightful

    They suffer the consequences of their inaction and/or ignorance? God forbid we expect people to be responsible for themselves...

    Are you really that heartless? Do you think it's good for society to have tens of thousands of elerly people and children starving and homeless? It's too bad they didn't save, or perhaps it's too bad their investments went sour, or they were swindled, or some other circumstance you're not considering. But it's a disgusting to deny help to those who need it because you're deciding not the rest of the population isn't as well off as you are.

  22. See, that's just it by colnago · · Score: 3, Insightful
    I don't want social security whether it is fine or not. I don't need government telling me how and when I can do what with the money I've earned. It's not their money.

    It looks like you've bought it hook, line, and sinker. Either that or you work for the NY Times.

    1. Re:See, that's just it by Dutchmaan · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I don't want social security whether it is fine or not. I don't need government telling me how and when I can do what with the money I've earned. It's not their money.

      So don't drive on their roads, apply for student loans, land got flooded out.. oops... no money for flood control.. were you just invaded.. oops.. no money for the military.. good thing you have your money.

      I've got a little bit of news for all you "it's my money" people.. We're living in a *society* and it's not every man for himself. Society needs to be contributed to if it's going to work at all.

  23. SS isn't a Ponzi Scheme by glrotate · · Score: 5, Informative

    from Wiki:

    State pension systems lack a number of basic features that define Ponzi schemes, and so are fundamentally different:

    * There is no belief that there are large profits coming from something; rather, it is clear that these are pay-as-you go systems, where workers (at any given time) are providing money to those who have retired.
    * There is no growth of incoming funds driven by the enticement of high returns over a short period of time, with new investors continually entering in order to support payouts to early investors.
    * State pension systems are in some way insurance rather than investment systems. A person who dies before retirement gets no money back (regardless of what he/she paid in). Someone who lives to a very old age continues to get payments regardless of the amount of money he/she has paid in.
    * Because receipts (taxes) and payouts (entitlements) can be calculated quite accurately in the short term (five to ten years), and predicted (with a range of assumptions) for periods beyond that timeframe, there will never be a sudden collapse.
    * General tax revenues can be used to supplement worker payments into the systems, although many taxpayers will be unhappy with such supplementation. Similarly, benefits can be reduced through the political process, either across-the-board or by reducing benefits to the well-off, although there will clearly be opposition by those who will get less.

  24. Clinton on the Social Security crisis by kuwan · · Score: 4, Insightful
    I love hearing all the people here talk about how there is no Social Security crisis just because the Republicans say there is a crisis. You've also got Ted Kennedy and Harry Reid (the Democrat leader of the Senate) saying stuff like it's "a crisis that doesn't exist." So what was their great hero, Bill Clinton, saying when he was in office?

    July 27, 1998
    As you know, I believe strongly that we must set aside every penny of any budget surplus until we have saved Social Security first.

    Fiscal responsibility gave us our strong economy. Fiscal irresponsibility would put it at risk. And whether we save Social Security first I will not be moved, but on how we save Social Security -- that will require us to have open minds and generous spirits. It will require listening and learning and looking for the best ideas wherever they may be. We simply must put progress ahead of partisanship.

    The stakes couldn't be higher. For 60 years, Social Security has reflected our deepest values -- the duties we owe to our parents, to each other and to our children. Today, 44 million Americans depend upon Social Security. For two-thirds of our seniors it is the main source of income. And nearly one in three beneficiaries are not retirees, for Social Security is also a life insurance policy and a disability policy, along with being a rock-solid guarantee of support in old age.

    Today, Social Security is sound, but a demographic crisis is looming. By 2030, there will be twice as many elderly as there are today, with only two people working for every person drawing Social Security. After 2032, contributions from payroll taxes will only cover 75 cents on the dollar of current benefits. So we must act, and act now, to save Social Security.
    Were they singing a different tune back then? Is there only a crisis when a Democrat says there's a crisis?

    I'm sorry but "only two people working for every person drawing Social Security" will not work. Social Security will not be able to support itself. Now you may not agree with what has been proposed by the President to reform Social Security, but you shouldn't be so childish and stupid to deny that a problem exists.

    --
    It works.
    Free Flat Screens | Free iPod Photo
  25. Why this is a horrible horrible idea by nightsweat · · Score: 4, Interesting

    We aren't savages.

    If we were, then the idea of privitizing Social Security would be no big deal. If someone misinvested by putting all his retirement money into Tyco or Enron stock, fine. We let him die broke and impoverished and that's that.

    But we're not savages and we won't do that. If a person screws up and loses all their retirement we'll cover them some other way via state or local government instead of via the Feds. You'll still pay for that person's retirement, just not in a predictable way, and it'll be more expensive as more poverty retakes America's elderly.

    Social Security is the SINGLE most effective government program ever. Elderly poverty was endemic in the 1930's and before. Unless you were really rich, you stood a really good chance of dying poor and dragging your children down with you. Now, that's much less prevelant.

    You object because you want to invest in a free market? Great. Most investors lose money, but if you really want to invest outside of the SS program, what's stopping you? Go ahead. You just can't risk this small percentage of your earnings. That goes to make sure you won't be too much of a burden on the rest of us when you get old.

    --

    the major advances in civilization are processes which all but wreck the societies in which they occur - A.N. White
  26. Re:End Social Security by flacco · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Show me where in the constitution it says that the government should be setting up retirement funds for people.

    well, of course, it isn't in the constitution. but the constitution does give congress the power to make laws to deal with the problems of society.

    apparently congress thinks it's more important to make sure old people aren't starving on the streets than to give DataStalker an ideological hand-job.

    --
    pr0n - keeping monitor glass spotless since 1981.
  27. Re:End Social Security by GOD_ALMIGHTY · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You're going to pay one way or the other, either you do it in an orderly fashion through a system like Social Security or you pay through externalized costs of destitute elderly. Plan on paying for increases in crime, emergency services, healthcare, etc. Or do you think this nation is going to just let old people starve and freeze in the streets? Would you really treat Veterans who hadn't been able to save enough because of constant medical problems not covered by the VA this way? How do you propose to help people whose pensions the courts have stripped through criminal mismanagement by their former employers? You're method is just tough luck, sucks to be you?

    No society has been able to progress and remain competitive with the shortsighted advice you've proposed here. Social Security is just a cheaper way to protect rights than "letting the market take care of it". Wealth equals power, the Social Security payments ensure that old people have the power to defend their rights instead of depending on the government to make sure they aren't violated.

    The word justice is all over the Constitution and the Federalist Papers; Social Security fits the Founding Father's idea of justice, hence it's in the Constitution. Your argument about being something that people are unwilling to do for themselves is a canard. Only a half-hearted attempt to understand this nation's founding and history could lead you to the conclusions you've vomited all over this page.

    --
    Arrogance is Confidence which lacks integrity. -- me
  28. Make a simple graph by Solandri · · Score: 4, Interesting
    The x-axis denotes tax rate, the y-axis denotes tax revenue.

    If we tax at 0%, revenue is $0.
    If we tax at 100%, revenue is $A (where A > $0 - this is basically Communism)
    If we tax at something in between, let's say 50% for the sake of argument, revenue is $B (where B > A - this is Capitalism).

    Ok, now draw a single line connecting those points. Obviously you can't do it with a straight line, it has to be curved. And therein lies the heart of the matter.

    If the tax rate is below a certain point, cutting taxes decreases revenue.
    If the tax rate is above a certain point, cutting taxes increases revenue.

    You cannot argue that cutting taxes always decreases revenue. You cannot argue that cutting taxes always increases revenue. What's arguable is whether we're currently above or below the point where it switches from one to the other.

  29. Banks and Suckers by Tackhead · · Score: 3, Interesting
    [deliberately taking this quote out of its original context in a discussion on media integrity]

    > I wonder if your bank cleaned out your account, you would claim it was your own fault, because "I'm a sucker for trusting them with all that money."

    You choose an interesting analogy.

    There won't be enough younger people working to pay all of the benefits owed to those who are retiring. At that point, there will be enough money to pay only about 73 cents for each dollar of scheduled benefits.

    -Social Security Statement, Page 1

    If your bank statement said "By 2042, there won't be enough other depositors depositing checks with us to pay all of the balance owed to you. At that point, there will be enough money to pay only about 73 cents for each dollar you deposited with us", would you continue to bank with them?

    1. Re:Banks and Suckers by jackjumper · · Score: 3, Informative

      That's why there's a surplus now. The above is *part of the plan*. Payroll taxes were raised in the '80s so that the trust would have enough of a surplus to cover the baby boomers. The surplus gets drawn down, as you mention, but once the boomers are gone, it shouldn't be a problem.

      See here for more information

  30. How the Swedes Fared by adamontherun · · Score: 3, Informative

    The article briefly mentions that Sweden reformed their pension system a few years ago. Annika Sunden, a researcher at Boston College, has written a rundown of the Swedish Experience (I like the sound of that).

    In 2000, the new center-right Swedish government passed a law that mandated private pension accounts. Under the law,Swedes pay an 18% pension tax, 16% goes to the pay-as-you-go system (same as in the US) and 2% goes to private individual accounts.

    There are over 650 investment funds you can choose to invest in. You can own up to 5 funds. If you don't activly select a fund, your placed in a "default" fund, that's composed of about 75% stocks, and the rest bonds.

    When the program was launched, 70% of people in year one made an active choice and picked their own funds. In subsequent years, only 10% activley select a fund. This can be explained by all the media attention the new law caused, and a government marketing campaign in 2000 urging people to pick a fund.

    Most accounts have lost money since they began, and people are starting to question private accounts. Shitty timing to start this at the top of the bubble.

    A big lesson here is that if you are going to create private accounts, the composition of the default fund is hugely important. It needs to be very low risk and well diversified. (And, I'd be happy to run it for a mere 0.00001% management fee)

  31. Hell yes SS is a Ponzi scheme by sjbe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    State pension systems lack a number of basic features that define Ponzi schemes, and so are fundamentally different:

    Gotta disagree with you on this one. Granted SS is not an intentionally criminal enterprise, I think it's intentions are good, but it does have a strong resemblence to a pyramid scheme thanks to demographics. People are living longer which is not compensated for in the plan. To wit:

    * There is no belief that there are large profits coming from something; rather, it is clear that these are pay-as-you go systems, where workers (at any given time) are providing money to those who have retired.

    Sure there is a belief. There is a belief that the profits are going to come from future taxpayer dollars. Problem is that people are living longer and the population growth isn't sufficient to maintain this, especially after the baby boomers retire. The only reason it is a "pay-as-you-go" system is because Congress can't help themselves and raid SS for every extra penny that comes in every year for purposes other than Social Security. That money should be invested for future retirees and used for no other purpose but it isn't.

    * There is no growth of incoming funds driven by the enticement of high returns over a short period of time, with new investors continually entering in order to support payouts to early investors.

    There is a continual growth of incoming funds from working taxpayers funding "high" returns for existing retirees (read early investors). Granted it isn't to the level (50%+ returns) one usually associates with a Ponzi scheme but the principle is basically the same. Eventually demographics will catch up and the number of retirees will be too large to be supported by the workers without changes to the program. That's exactly how pyramid schemes fail.

    * State pension systems are in some way insurance rather than investment systems. A person who dies before retirement gets no money back (regardless of what he/she paid in). Someone who lives to a very old age continues to get payments regardless of the amount of money he/she has paid in.

    If it were truly an insurance program that intended to remain solvent, it would have to adjust either the retirement age or the benefits paid. Besides, do you know how insurance companies work? They take in payments, invest that money and then pay out what they have to in claims. Whatever is left over is profit. But SS money is NOT invested (pay-as-you-go remember?) so it really does not resemble an insurance program at all.

    * Because receipts (taxes) and payouts (entitlements) can be calculated quite accurately in the short term (five to ten years), and predicted (with a range of assumptions) for periods beyond that timeframe, there will never be a sudden collapse.

    The amount of money that comes in from taxes is HIGHLY variable and is not at all easy to calculate. Don't know where you got that idea. The reason California found itself way overbudget these last few years is precisely because they planned to spend money and then ended up with less in tax revenue than expected. Predicting tax revenue is anything but a science. One good recession will screw up even the best models.

    * General tax revenues can be used to supplement worker payments into the systems, although many taxpayers will be unhappy with such supplementation. Similarly, benefits can be reduced through the political process, either across-the-board or by reducing benefits to the well-off, although there will clearly be opposition by those who will get less.

    You ever tried to take away benefits or salary from someone? There is a reason SS is called the third rail. A politician touches it and he dies. True, in theory benefits can be adjusted but the political reality is that taking benefits away from old people is political suicide and not likely to happen anytime soon.

  32. Re:SS isn't a state pension plan! by $ASANY · · Score: 4, Informative

    State pension plans invest deductions from payroll or state contributions in marketable securities. These securities receive interest income or capital appreciation and grow over time. Retirees then draw from this fund in the form of pension payments.

    Social security invests NOTHING. Current contributions are immediately paid out to beneficiaries. The only deviation from this is when collections are greater than payouts, in which case the money is forwarded to the "general fund" and spent for government programs. The social security system receives an IOU from the government in the amount of the surplus that is filed somewhere, and is sometimes referred to as a "treasury security". Unlike a treasury security, however, it cannot be traded. It is not marketable in any way. No funds are set aside to meet these pseudo-obligations. As a security, these instruments have zero value and are only a political instrument used to cover the fact that payroll taxes are in excess of what is currently needed, and is used for non-social security purposes.

    The social security system really is a lot like a ponzi scheme, but one supposedly supported by the ability of the U.S. Government to raise money (through taxation). As long as the government is willing to support social security when payroll taxes don't cover benefit payouts, we're fine. It's been the other way around for years now. But I sorta doubt that the feds will be able to do that when I retire.

  33. The big problem is borrowing against SS by tf23 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Congress issued bonds against what was the big Social Security cash hoard a while back, no?

    So those bonds (or loans, if I'm thinking incorrectly) will come calling sometime in the 2030's?

    I think that is the point where many analysts are saying that SS will be calling for the replayment on that.

    But who pays it?

    The US Taxpayer. Somehow, somewhere, the $ to repay the $ which was taken against the social security funds will need to be repaid.

    I think THIS is the bulk of the problem.

    Solve this, and make it so that we can't pass expenditures that aren't already funded.... basically cut those government credit cards up.

  34. The story was fake by AtariAmarok · · Score: 4, Funny
    "The story wasn't fake. One piece of evidence was not corroborated (never proven false by the way) and the right wing spin machine went into overdrive to "discredit" the story."

    It was an entirely faked document. Right wing overdrive? I guess CBS is part of it (they have fully discredited the story after a review, and fired those responsible), and anyone who thinks that a "historic" document using modern MS Word fonts is fishy must be a "right winger".

    --
    Don't blame Durga. I voted for Centauri.
    1. Re:The story was fake by OwnedByTwoCats · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The documents lacked provenance.

      The truth is that Bush _was_ AWOL. Did not meet his committments. Guardsmen today who did what Bush did would be in the brig for a long time or wose.

  35. Re:Shocked, shocked I am by wizarddc · · Score: 3, Informative

    I guess you passed over the part that went like this:

    What's more, there is a strong case to be made that the agency is erring on the side of being overly pessimistic. If its more optimistic projection turns out to be correct, then there will be no need for any benefit cuts or payroll-tax increases over the full 75 years.

    The 2018 is pretty much a worst case scenario. If the conditions occured that would make the system run a deficit in 15-20 years, the stck market would also flounder. Meaning private investments and 401K's would not be a great option to social security.

    Social Security isn't truly designed to be 100% of retiree income. In fact, if you continued reading:

    Social Security does not provide, and was not meant to provide, a satisfactory retirement on its own. The average stipend for a 65-year-old retiring today is $1,184 a month, or about $14,000 a year. About half of Americans also have private pension plans, but for two-thirds of the elderly, Social Security supplies the majority of day-to-day income. For the poorest 20 percent, about seven million, Social Security is all they have. Even those figures understate the program's importance. According to an agency publication, ''Income of the Population 55 or Older: 2000,'' 8 percent of elderly beneficiaries were poor, but a startling 48 percent would have been below the poverty line had they not been receiving Social Security.

    So many seniors and retirees did save up, and try as they might, without Social Security, they'd be in poverty.

    --
    Th
  36. The social contract is being rewritten.... by SETIGuy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Taxes of 12-odd percent of our income are taken for SS.

    That's 12.4% (6.2% of which is paid by the employer). Unless, of course, you make more that $87,000, in which case, your rate can be significantly lower. Someone with an annual income of $500,000 would pay about 2.16% in FICA Tax (Federal Insurance Contributions Act, a name we will get back to in a minute). Someone with $500,000 of unearned income (i.e. dividends, capital gains) would pay 0.00% in FICA tax. That makes the Social Security tax a regressive tax, in that low wage earners pay a higher percentage than high wage earners.

    If you invested that money in private accounts, you'd be wealthy by the time you retired, even if you made some seriously bad investment decisions.

    Yes, and if twinkies grew on pine trees, nobody would ever go hungry. The money is not a pension. It is not a retirement plan. It's not even yours. It's a fee you pay for the privledge of working in this country. In addition, it is an insurance policy. (Note the acronym above "Federal INSURANCE Contributions Act") It's poverty insurance. Congratulations! You're covered.

    I'll assume you own a home and pay for fire insurance. I would even bet that your state or local government requires that you purchase fire insurance. With a little luck, your house will never burn down. After 20 years of good luck, are you going to start calling your insurance company to demand "return on your investment?" Feel free to try. Give them a call and tell them you're being "ripped off" because you haven't collected on your investment. Tell them that you're tired of them giving "your" money to people who weren't smart enough not to burn down their houses.

    There's a difference between an investment and an expense. Insurance is an expense. Get used to it.

    I know it's a social program, it's about the social contract and so on, but if the social contract is as one-sided as SS is, well, I want out. Period.

    It IS a social contract. And if you want out of the contract move to Argentina, asshole. That's ssuming they'll take you. That's your way out of Social Security. Go somewhere else. Get a job making sneakers for Nike in Southeast Asia. Do it today and you'll never pay another cent in FICA.

    I've never understood how so many the rich in this country think that they get no benefit from taxation. Do you think that your investments would be doing well if senior citizens were starving in the streets. Do you think that the social unrest that comes with extreme poverty is going to leave you untouched? (That's not to mention that the rich are the primary beneficiaries of most of the government spending in this country.)

    You want to live here, pay your fair share and stop bitching. If you don't want to pay your fair share, what makes you think we want you here?

    If you're making over $100K and you can't find another 12% of your income to stash away, you're doing something wrong. If you're making significantly less than $100K, you're probably going to need social security and you'd better hope it's there when you need it.

    By the way, I'm rich... I'm also undertaxed.

  37. Re:Sure. by Phronesis · · Score: 3, Interesting
    Look here for some more intuition. The Heritage Foundation's intuition is based on the assumption that people follow simple rules of economic rationality. It would be nice if they did, but the hypothesis is testable and has been thoroughly refuted.

    The Nobel Prize for economics a couple of years ago went to Daniel Kahneman, who demonstrated that

    Kahneman also demonstrated that the Heritage foundation's intuition is poorly suited to understanding the economics and statistics of the real world.

    Kahneman showed that people often prefer to choose a pair of gambles that equate to

    • 25% odds of winning $240 and
    • 75% odds of losing $760
    over an alternative pair that equate to
    • 25% odds of winning $250 and
    • 75% odds of losing $750
    which violates the fundamental postulates of economic rationality. Specifically, economic preferences are not rational: It is easy to set up choices where people consistently prefer a to b and c to d, but prefer (b+d) to (a+c) (see D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, Eds., Choices, Values, and Frames).

    Kahneman's colleague Colin Camerer also demonstrated that taxi drivers work longer hours on nights when they make less money per hour and knock off early when they make more money per hour. In other words, the supply of cab drivers increases when the demand decreases and vice-versa!

    Camerer's results violate the Heritage Foundation's intuition and suggests that increasing taxes might well lead people to work harder because people often work until they earn a target, after which they decide to knock off early and enjoy their leisure.

    In the real world, people's choices frequently violate in a fundamental manner the postulates of economic rationality and thus refute trite intuitive assumptions that people act to maximize their income, wealth, or other measures of utility.

  38. Re:Social InSecurity by SETIGuy · · Score: 4, Insightful
    How many times can you swing at this one and miss?

    But Social Security is bad insurance and a terrible investment.

    Repeat after me: "Social Security is not an investment."

    It offers a negative return on your money as a retirement program

    Repeat after me: "Social Security is not a retirement program."

    and negligible benefits as insurance.

    Which are better than no benefits at all to those who need them.

    The death benefit, for example, is $255, which isn't enough even for the most skimpy of funerals.

    Repeat after me: "Social security if not life insurance. It's there to make sure you can eat at least once a day, even if you lose everything else."

    I have a right to say that I want a specific fire insurance policy. If it's sold, I can buy it.

    Yes, but this is not an individual policy. It's "social insurance." Insurance for society. Your retirement benefit is only one aspect and it's there to make sure you get to eat when you get old. The reason is that society benefits if you aren't starving. Society also benefits if you get to enough money to afford food after you get brain damaged in a motorcycle accident.

    You have the right to buy any supplemental retirement insurance you want. In fact you'd better, assuming you want to do anything besides eat in your retirement.

    I have a right to invest with about ten billion companies. If there's an investment approach, there's a fund to support it.

    Yes, and you have a right to purchase any auto insurance that you want, but you still need that basic liability coverage (at least in California). If you want comprehensive, spend the extra bucks, but you can't drop your liability coverage. It's part of the social contract you entered when you got your driver's license.

    What if I could invest in anything I wanted under the umbrella of social insurance?

    I'm assuming that, out of self interest, you would choose the policy that you think benefits you the most, and that benefits society the least. Apparently you are short sighted enough to think that if your neighbor is starving, it doesn't affect you.

    That's what Bush is proposing with Social Security Private Accounts. Tell me what's wrong with that. It seems to me that it's common sense that if you invest money for your retirement, or to protect you when you're sick and disabled, you should be able to manage that money on your own.

    You are currently able to do all of that and much, much more with your own money. Go right ahead. I reccomend that everyone do exactly that. Invest for your retirement. Buy disability insurance. Repeat after me: "The FICA taxes I paid are NOT my money. It is money that I am required to spend for the benefit of society. The benefit I receive from this is beyond the financial benefit I receive during my retirement."

    And, of course, that is most definitely not why GWB wants private accounts. The purpose of private accounts is to bankrupt a successful social insurance program in order to demonstrate the "failure of the welfare state" which "places undue burden on the wealthy."

    Social Security hurts the poor more than anyone else, since they don't have the investment money we do. SS /is/ their investment money. If they had the freedom to invest it as they wanted, everyone would be better off. That's my argument, pure and simple.

    Another GOP myth (i.e. lie). It is predominantly the poor who receive more of social security than they paid in FICA taxes. (That would be even more true if we got rid of the damn FICA ceiling.) For the wealthy, the converse is true, which explains the GOP maneuvers to kill it.

  39. Re:What about by frank_adrian314159 · · Score: 4, Insightful
    All pundits fit this mold and politicians on either side of the fence are often the same.

    I hate this kind of "argument".

    Even though both sides have made mistakes, if you put CBS's long, distinguished history up against Fox's tawdry few months, there is a great difference in quality. It's the same comparing Rather's 40+ years in print and TV journalism and comparing it with O'Reilly's distinguished hisory on Inside Edition or Hannity's history of... oh yeah, nothing. Saying they're both "the same" is akin to saying that Pol Pot was like Abe Lincoln because they both declared war and, as a result, got people killed.

    Your statement is both disingenuous and stupid. But I guess, from your use of it, that Fox has also lifted the level of logic in this country by training it's viewers well in their tactics.

    --
    That is all.