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NASA Says 2005 Could Be Warmest Year Recorded

Ant writes "CNN reports that a weak El Nino and human-made greenhouse gases could make 2005 the warmest year since records started being kept in the late 1800s." From the article: "While climate events like El Nino -- when warm water spreads over much of the tropical Pacific Ocean --affect global temperatures, the increasing role of human-made pollutants plays a big part."

30 of 655 comments (clear)

  1. Don't worry over it by Black+Parrot · · Score: 5, Funny


    It will only be the hottest year on record for a year or so.

    --
    Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
  2. Make up your mind, NASA! by bigtallmofo · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You apparently want Earth colder and Mars hotter. Make up your mind!

    Sudden global climate change is a serious issue that should be dealt with, but it is interesting how on one side NASA feels it's possible to control and affect positive massive global climate change on Mars but fears comparatively tiny changes on Earth.

    --
    I'm a big tall mofo.
    1. Re:Make up your mind, NASA! by macshit · · Score: 4, Insightful

      it is interesting how on one side NASA feels it's possible to control and affect positive massive global climate change on Mars but fears comparatively tiny changes on Earth.

      Hmmm, think maybe it has something to do with the fact that Mars is an uninhabited wasteland, whereas if Earth gets screwed up, all we know is destroyed and we all die horrible agonizing deaths?

      Of course that might not happen -- but when the stakes are very high, you should pay a lot more attention to the risks...

      --
      We live, as we dream -- alone....
    2. Re:Make up your mind, NASA! by Nate+B. · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm not going to tout this page from the Weather Underground as the last word on the subject, but there is clearly much to understand on this issue. I think the most interesting part of this page is the graph of the historical temperatures taken from the Greenland ice cap.

      There is much sound data and research in the field of climate study that isn't completely understood, while there is a lot of political hyperbole as well. I'm trying to learn as much about it as a layman can while avoiding the political agendas.

      --

      "Insanity is doing the same thing over again expecting a different result."
  3. Confirmed in Calgary, Canada by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Already in Canada, we have had some January temperatures of ONLY -35 C when normally we get some days of -37 C
    Definitely warmer this year!

  4. The difference is.... by kngthdn · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ...we live on Earth!

    1. Re:The difference is.... by Sique · · Score: 4, Insightful

      And the second, more basic difference is that between tipping a balance and reaching balance. It's quite easy to tip a balance out of equilibrium (as planned on Mars). It's damn complicated to keep a complex system in balance (as necessary on Earth).

      --
      .sig: Sique *sigh*
  5. Did you know that one? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Two planets meet in space:
    First planet: "You're not looking too well! Are you ill?"
    Second planet: "Yeah, I got homo sapiens!"
    First planet: "Never mind, that's one illness that quickly runs out. You may get some fever because of all the greenhouse gases, but in the end, they'll just wipe themselves out..."

    1. Re:Did you know that one? by dustmite · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yeah, funny .. but actually it's interesting to compare our behaviour to that of a deadly virus: the latter will also consume all available resources multiplying as quickly as possible until its host is completely destroyed, and unless it can find a new host, it will die along with the host.

      Personally I'd like to believe that we're more intelligent than a virus cell, but all evidence seems against it.

    2. Re:Did you know that one? by Matey-O · · Score: 4, Funny

      Smith? Is that You?!?

      (or Elrond, I can't keep you two straight)

      --
      "Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus."
  6. Americans are different by violet16 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I find Americans to be, on balance, very intelligent and well-informed. They tend to hold views similar to those of intelligent, well-informed people of other countries, with two exceptions:

    (1) Gun control. Way more smart Americans believe in the right to carry a weapon than smart non-Americans. Most of the rest of the Western world thinks the US is kind of insane on this issue, actually.

    (2) Global warming. It is near-universally accepted outside the US that this is happening, and that humankind is responsible. But many smart Americans doubt this.

    I resist the urge to inject my own views here because I simply wanted to point this out. It's odd.

    1. Re:Americans are different by Scarblac · · Score: 5, Interesting

      (3) Creationism. This is not a serious option anywhere in the Western world, but a large percentage of smart Americans still think that evolution is doubtful and that creationism is a real competitor.

      As you say, the difference between the US and elsewhere is odd.

      --
      I believe posters are recognized by their sig. So I made one.
    2. Re:Americans are different by plj · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I am not American but European.

      What comes to the first issue: it is U.S. internal politics, so I don't worry about it that much. If the Americans want to let any nutjob out there to have guns, it is their problem, as long as it happens within their borders, i.e. they are only killing each other.

      Not that I wouldn't find it insane, though. The pro-firearms people always say that "guns don't kill people, people do" as their main defense. But same applies to cars, and still driving a car is not a constitutional right, but a special privilege granted only for those, who have obtained a driver's license. And yet killing living things -- including, but not limited to humans -- is the primary function guns are actually designed for, but this is definitely not the case with cars.

      The problem with global warming instead just seems to be that when people are not absolutely sure that global warming happens and that CO2 emissions caused by humans are actually contributing to it, they are willing to do nothing, as they feel that the preventative measures are too expensive to take without certainty of their necessity and effectiveness.

      Unfortunately, this viewpoint is just as shortsighted as quarter-year capitalism -- and like that, it seems to be most common in the U.S. The problem is that these people do not realise two facts about the measures that should be taken to stop the expected global warning.

      1) That if the humans have, in fact, contributing to global warming, as is assumed, the preventative measures must be taken now to be effective. If we postpone this until we have the bulletproof evidence, then it means that large-scale global warming is already happening, and it will be too late to take any preventative measures; we would have no option left but to deal with the conseqences, and we already know that that would become helluva lot more expensive than any preventative measures as the glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica would melt in large scale, raising the sea level several metres and the extreme weather systems would become even much more common than they are now. Over time, it would probably cost a lot of human lives, too.

      2) That if we take the preventative measures, and we'll find out later that we could have never done anything to stop the global warming, or that it wasn't actually even happening in first place, the technology we had developed wouldn't still be in vain; first of all, we wouldn't be dependent of oil anymore, which problem would need to be solved anyway, as oil is not really renewable energy source.

      Second, we would likely have developed lots of new high technology stuff along the way, creating many entirely new businesses. These businesses and the value they would have added to the economies of the countries that would have developed them wouldn't be going away.

      Car is a good analogy again, as Americans love their SUVs; consider, that in future SUVs would all be using fuel cells. Now, to avoid CO2 emissions, the hydrogen used in those must not be produced using fossil fuels. Nuclear is a good option, of course, but fission is not renewable either, and then we'd yet have to deal with all the waste, which still seems to be somewhat problematic. So how about if U.S. would just invest so much money to fusion research (still pocket money comparing to the war in Iraq), that it would become the leading provider of fusion technology in the world, for example? An entirely possible scenario. Lots of extra research among renewables would not be bad idea either. The way to turn all this into good business will be there, if political will is.

      --
      “Wait for Hurd if you want something real” –Linus
  7. 2005 could also be... by gralem · · Score: 5, Insightful

    the coldest year on record
    the wettest year on record
    the dryest year on record
    the fewest storms on record
    the most storms on record

    Depending on where you live, your exact location could have any of these conditions. It's funny how the most generic weather predictions can always be proven true.

    All in all, 2005 looks to be pretty scary. I wouldn't go outside, based on NASA's findings.

    ---gralem

  8. Pre-emptive climate change faq by rush22 · · Score: 5, Informative
  9. There are other differences by Fished · · Score: 5, Insightful
    There are more positive examples of differences. For example, consider Free Speech. America tolerates a level of free speech (including even speech that is offensive or subversive) that goes far beyond that tolerated in many other countries. Think about much of Europe, where it is illegal even to sell Nazi memorabilia, or Canada, where many churches are quite concerned that they will not be allowed to preach against homosexual practice.

    In the US, we allow people to call themselves neo-Nazis and salute Hitler while holding a sign proclaiming that "God hates fags." And, as nauseating as I find those points of view, I think people should have the right to express them (but not to act on them.)

    The bottom line is that the right to keep and bear arms is directly linked to the right to free speech (which most of us cherish). And one could argue quite strongly that the American tendency to hold opinions that differ from (todays) academic orthodoxy is itself a direct application of that same right of free speech.

    If the rest of the world jumps off a cliff, should America join them?

    --
    "He who would learn astronomy, and other recondite arts, let him go elsewhere. " -- John Calvin, commenting on Genesis 1
    1. Re:There are other differences by zootm · · Score: 5, Insightful
      In the US, we allow people to call themselves neo-Nazis and salute Hitler while holding a sign proclaiming that "God hates fags." And, as nauseating as I find those points of view, I think people should have the right to express them (but not to act on them.)
      An interesting sidenote of this is the stigma around "communists", and how self-proclamation of communism was effectively a crime during parts of the Cold War. Freedom of speech in the US is less immutable than its residents like to think, although it is at a high and very respectable level.

      I like to think that my own country (the UK) has comparable levels of freedom of speech, and it's true, to a degree - there's some discrepencies (for example burden of proof in libel cases) which impede it to some degree.

      The arms rights thing is an interesting issue. I believe the US should keep the right to bear arms -- perhaps a more rigorous licencing system might be in order in some cases, but in general it's how the country has developed and it's what works there. This is not, however, a "be all and end all" decision -- the US is not a "better" country because of this right (I'm also not sure how it's linked to freedom of speech in a modern society, although in the formative stages of a newer society I could see it coming in). The UK, given the right to bear arms, would probably be negatively affected. It's not part of our culture. The same goes for a lot of countries. A lot of Americans don't understand how countries with gun control can be described as "free", and a lot of countries with gun control don't understand how America can be considered "sane" -- it's what works in the situation. The US is a culture that was born in the times when people had guns, it's built upon it. The UK's devolution from a monarchy to a democracy (yes, I know it's still technically a monarchy, but the difference is moot in context) is a different type of formation of a modern society than that of the US. I don't believe it makes the country better, it's just what fits the culture.

      On note, though, obviously there's people arguing against what I'd see as sane here, too. I've had long, drawn-out discussions with the kind of people who want to ban, for example, parties like the BNP, because, as deplorable as I find their policies and views, I should not have the right to stop them expressing them

      It's a shaky subject, in any case. And this is getting waaaaaay off-topic.
    2. Re:There are other differences by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 4, Insightful
      In nations with stringent gun control, what is the plan for overthrowing the government when the time comes?

      Put down the goddamn crack pipe!

      Nobody's going to overthrow any government using the weapons that are legal for U.S. citizens to own.

      Look at the last few decades of history. The only weapons that have even the slightest impact on modern militaries are suicide bombs and car bombs, and even then that's only because of heavy TV coverage. If that were censored, you wouldn't have a chance in hell of affecting anything.

      News flash: U.S. citizens already aren't allowed to keep bombs in their homes. Bickering over the right to bear your peashooter popguns is a red herring designed to keep you pacified. The only way to avoid tyranny in a world full of armed flying drones and H-bombs is to work within the system to prevent it from happening in the first place.

  10. In other news... by Featureless · · Score: 5, Funny

    Nasa says 2005 budget could be lowest recorded.

  11. Not so minute differences by art6217 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    One can say "only a 1 or 2 deg. Celsius". In fact, first it is a mean temperature, second, the climate might turn out to on the verge of some major deterministic chaos state.

    As an example, during the so called Little Ice Age the global temperature dropped by about 1 deg. C, but it caused the following: (from Wikipedia)

    Glaciers in the Swiss Alps advanced, gradually engulfing farms and crushing entire villages. The River Thames and the canals and rivers of the Netherlands often froze over during the winter, and people skated and even held fairs on the ice. In the winter of 1780, New York Harbor froze, allowing people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island. Sea ice surrounding Iceland extended for miles in every direction, closing that island nation's harbors to shipping.

    The chaotic nature of weather patterns might, in turn, hypothetically cause that some very small change causes a major switch, i. e. in sea currents. I do not know if anyone now either predicts or excludes for sure any such event, though.

    So, concluding, I think that we do not really know how much serious to the climate the global warming is.

  12. Re:Americans are sensible by jeif1k · · Score: 4, Insightful

    We have a government that does pretty much what we tell it because we have two guns for every three citizens and a tradition of cleaning house when needed.

    You mean the American revolution? As far as democratic change goes, that was a pretty lightweight and recent effort. Nations like France fought long and hard for democracy, other nations in Europe have had a tradition of democracy going back a thousand years, and yet others had democracies and lost them again. America is a newcomer in the area of creating and maintaining democratic government, and there is no support for the view that America's gun policies are responsible for the current existence of democracy in the US, in particular since attitudes towards guns and gun ownership were altogether different around the time of the American revolution.

  13. Re:MOD Parent as exactly right by Angostura · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Please feel free to show the evidence that the U.S. government is significantly more scared of its populations than other national governments. Feel free to work in references to legislation such as the Patriot Act, where appropriate. Or any legislative issues where gun ownership made a difference.

  14. when they can consistantly give... by night_flyer · · Score: 4, Funny

    an accurate forcast for two days out in Oklahoma, and not in the middle of the summer with a high presure sitting on top of us (upper 90s, sunny, 70% humidity), then I will believe them.

    Forcast: Partly cloudly and a high of 41
    Actual: 1 inch of snow, high of 33

    --


    Thanks to file sharing, I purchase more CDs
    Thanks to the RIAA, I buy them used...
  15. NASA Wrong -- GWB Knows Best by pmhudepo · · Score: 4, Funny

    "It isn't pollution that's harming the environment. It's the impurities in our air and water that are doing it."

    -- Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

    Sorry, couldn't resist.

    1. Re:NASA Wrong -- GWB Knows Best by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Except that he never said that. That one is from MAD magazine 1991.
      http://www.snopes.com/quotes/candidate.asp

  16. Re:Cool! by tomhudson · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Think long hot DRY summers - crop failure, famine, death and disease.

    Think of the dirty '30s dustbowl as being the norm, not an exception.

    Think of Europe having much colder winters because of the lack of a thermocline to drive the gulf stream currents.

    Think of rising oceans as the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps melt, and as the waters around the earth rise due to thermal expansion.

    Think of recurring global catastrophies that make the recent tidal wave look like "just another day".

    Think of what we're handing our kids.

    Think - everyone said "don't worry, it won't happen in our lifetimes anyway."

    I think they were wrong.

    --

    On February 7th, Russ Nelson (Open Source Initiative president) published an article called "Blacks are lazy", quoted in journal entries here and here.

    Please consider signing the online petition asking OSI to remove Russ Nelson.

  17. Re:Americans are sensible by InadequateCamel · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You honestly think the government is more responsible because you have guns? You actually believe your government is afraid of you? Talk about an inflated sense of self-worth :-)

    Seriously though, your "tradition of cleaning house when needed" would come to an abrupt end when that small gathering of armed civilians gets an Apache-helicopter-beatdown. Don't kid yourself about being able to wrest control of the government away by force.

    Funny enough, do you know what the US would look like if this scenario were to play out?

    Iraq.

  18. Re:State of Fear by RayBender · · Score: 5, Informative
    I am in the middle of reading Michael Crichton's book State of Fear.

    Before you base your response to a very serious environmental situation on a work of fiction, please read this. Crichton uses a bunch of proven-false arguments, and wraps a transparent opinion piece in a layer of fiction, yet still tries to make a political point. And in the process he basically slanders a whole bunch of very earnest, hard-working scientists. It's really quite despicable.

    Personally I think there has to be a balance where we work to protect the enviroment but do not have to tramatize our kids with scary tales of the world ending in their lifetimes.

    I grew up in the 80's; the nukes could fly any minute (that really could've happened). I turned out just fine. So I'm not too worried about traumatizing kids. Besides, the consensus view states that there would be a 2-6 deg increase in global average temperture, not "that the world will end". You can infer from such a rise that the disruption will be very severe, but I think it is simply idiocy to argue that we shouldn't warn people "just because it might scare the kids".

    --
    Human genome = 3 billion base pairs = 6 GBit. Windows + Office = 20 Gbit. Which is more impressive?
  19. Re:Cool! by RWerp · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Think long hot DRY summers - crop failure, famine, death and disease.
    Ah....long hot summers, I can't wait. As for dry and crop failure, that's what we have water for. It generally counteracts the effects of dryness. Also, there are countries with warm sunny climates and they haven't died of famine, in fact they'r thriving. What are you talking about? Are you saying that Italy for instance is an arid wasteland, where not even olives can grow?
    We have less and less water clean enough to be used in agriculture. In my country (Poland) level of ground waters has been dropping during the last 50 years. Water is becoming a luxurious commodity in many places of the world. Ask the farmers near Rio Grande, for example.
    Your picking of Italy as an example shows you know little on agriculture. Olives (and wine) do not need much water to grow. But you can't live on wine and olives. You need grass to feed the herds on, you need a lot more water to grow crops, vegetables and fruits. Southern Italy is becoming really dry by now, esp. Sicily.
    Hot summers can be dangerous to old people, as over 10,000 dead in France during the 2004 (or 2003) summer show.
    --
    "Long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead." (John Maynard Keynes)
  20. Global Uncooling by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Global "warming" isn't going to just raise everyone's thermostat by 5'C. It's cranking up the chaotic fractal dimension of the atmosphere. Some places will get colder. Like when the Greenland ice melts, flushing fresh water into the North Atlantic, it will push the "Thermo Haline Circulation" farther south, making the warm Gulf Stream flow more directly from America to, say, France, instead of warming the Baltic. The UK will plunge into an arctic climate like northern Scandanavia, along with the rest of northern Europe. Other places are likely to also freeze or drop, though the average will be higher, meaning some places will become hellishly hot. And the kinds of storms we'll see in the ongoing transition will make hurricanes look like mist.

    --

    --
    make install -not war