Mozilla 1.8b1 Released, Firefox Growth Slowing

An anonymous reader writes "Mozilla 1.8 Beta 1 has been released, and in addition to numerous bug fixes now includes ECMAScript for XML (E4X). Mozilla 1.8 will serve as the code basis for Firefox 1.1. In other Mozilla related news, WebSideStory saw Firefox's usage growth slow down to just 15% (Jan-Feb) from 22% (Dec-Jan) making Firefox's 10% marketshare goal for 2005 potentially more challenging. Their stats also saw Internet Explorer usage drop below 90% for the first time in many years."

Comments

Is this the end of the ride?

[smug_lisp_weenie]

...It does seem that everyone I know, personally, is already either using Firefox or just the kind of person that'll probably always use internet explorer forever. Let's hope this isn't the case...

...on the other hand, it is not uncommon, according to some business theories, for products to reach a temporary plateau after having reached all "early adopters" and that the majority of users will follow after a delay. Maybe that's where FireFox is now...who knows...

Re:Is this the end of the ride?

[SupaKoopa]

i know this sounds selfish...but i really hope firefox doesn't grow too much. i'll keep telling my friends and family because i don't want them to get stuck with the spyware-infested craphole that is IE....but if it gets a larger marketshare or anything, we can look forward to more pop-ups, viruses, trojans, and explots that target it specifically. hell, even now i'm noticing more and more popups that bypass firefox's anti-popup software

Re:Is this the end of the ride?

[cloak42]

Since both browsers take you too the same Internet, there will be a number (and not an insignificant number) who see "nothing different" and so they stay with IE.

Exactly why you should get them using Firefox. If they don't see a difference, then that makes it all that much easier for them to switch.

You know what I do?

My mom bought a new laptop from Dell recently, and she asked me to drive up and configure it for her, which I did. What I did was to use Windows' "Set Program Access and Defaults" to use Firefox as the default browser, and completely removed IE altogether from menus, the desktop, etc. by telling the configuration program to not allow access to it. This is easier than it seems, since Windows will remove all icons and shortcuts to it so there's no way to bring up IE unless you either run WindowsUpdate or specifically type 'iexplore' into the Run dialog.

I then installed an IE theme into Firefox and *poof!* To them it runs exactly the same, and nobody is the wiser. If I really wanted to make it transparent, I could've renamed the shortcuts and changed the icons, and I could probably have figured out a way to make it actuallY SAY "Internet Explorer" in the title bar.

I did the same thing today with a friend of a friend who had so much spyware she couldn't even check her webmail.

In both cases, I didn't even need to make them THINK they were running IE, as once I told them that they wouldn't notice a difference in their web surfing experience, that firefox had copied over all of their previous settings and cookies, and that they wouldn't be getting any more spyware unknowingly, they were ecstatic. All they really needed was to have their default browser changed and IE removed so they didn't load it without thinking, and they were happy as pigs in shit.

I really don't think it's too hard to make people understand that the benefits of using a better program easily outweigh the small inconvenience of remembering that it's not called Internet Explorer. Once they understand that all of those annoyances won't be showing up later on, they are more than happy to double-click on a different icon.

Re:Is this the end of the ride?

[idlake]

I wouldn't call 15% growth in 5 weeks a "plateau"...

Well duh

[Anonymous Coward]

When nothing's driving growth rates, growth rates slow. Firefox had a big publicity push around the 1.0 release. Now that publicity push is dying down. The normal thing that happens when publicity dies down is happening.

Wait and see what happens when 1.1 is released.

Seems like a silly prediction to me

[Anonymous Coward]

Does it make sense to make statements like "yup, that's as many customers as they'll ever have" based on a slowing growth rate, after exactly one major release that the public was aware of?

Circumstances change over time

Firefox isn't made by Microsoft.

[cbreaker]

You're assuming that Firefox has the same amount of bugs and vulnerabilities that IE does and it's not the case.

A lot of why IE has been so problematic is that during their war for the browser they "extended" the crap out of it, adding a lot of out-of-standard enhancements and extensions. IE has countless API's that keep web sites and applications stuck on IE and making it harder to switch to something else (really, no different then anything else Microsoft has ever made.)

Firefox is open source, it adheres to standards more strictly, and it's a lot more light-weight. There's less opportunity for malware to get in with Firefox, and if there's a security flaw it's fixed a lot faster. On the other hand, because of IE's extensions and extra functionality, it makes it much more difficult for Microsoft to back off on all the extra (and not soundly designed) features because everyone is stuck on them.

Re:Firefox isn't made by Microsoft.

[tarnin]

You're just a troll but I'll reply anyway. Of course there are no stats or solid proof if this. Why? Do you see an open bug tracking system for IE? Nope. We can only guess that the holes that IE has outside of the ones that are posted publicly and those have been fixed (sometimes).

FUD? No, but a pretty damn good guess going off past history of IE.

Re:Firefox isn't made by Microsoft.

[mshiltonj]

Suppose a FF extension becomes really popular, and somebody finds an exploit in it?

Wait, wait! Don't tell me! Let me guess!

Is it..... um, no.
How about...... no, that's not it.
Oh, I know...
You disable the fucking extension!

Re:Firefox isn't made by Microsoft.

[NanoGator]

"You disable the fucking extension!"

Before or after you've been exploited? Just like with IE, you have to use common sense.

Re:Firefox isn't made by Microsoft.

[Bert64]

How about people with poor eyesight who want to use especially large fonts because they cant read small ones? Don't you want the maximum possible number of people to read your content, rather than rejecting certain groups..
Modern browsers let you override a site's stylesheet for a reason you know, some people just want to read the content and dont want to be bothered with all the fancy stuff the author put in because he already has the content..
The number of sites i go to where the text is rendered unreadable by a background pattern/image, but atleast i can highlight it or cut+paste it into another app, can't do that with flash.

Re:Not surprised at slowed growth

[The Ancients]

...and most users don't need or want tabbed browsing.

Earlier you mention 'phony' statistics that were 'anecdotal'. Do you have research to substantiate what you've claimed above?

Some people are just stubborn

[Darth Maul]

I know quite a few people at my office that just won't try Firefox. Even though they know IE doesn't render correctly, even though they know that it allows all kinds of spyware, and even though they constantly have to close popups. They just won't do it! It's like they are not trying it for spite or something. Really weird. It's not like these people like Microsoft, but they are not just ignorant users that think the blue E is the IntarWeb.

What can be done about these kinds of users? Is this the vast middle-ground of IE users that just won't switch?

Re:Some people are just stubborn

[Jeremi]

Even though they know IE doesn't render correctly, even though they know that it allows all kinds of spyware, and even though they constantly have to close popups. They just won't do it! It's like they are not trying it for spite or something.

I think typically this sort of behaviour is a result of previous bad bad experiences leading to a "if it ain't completely broke, then for God's sake don't touch anything!" mentality. People are so afraid that their computer will stop working that they don't want to take any risks at all. (keep in mind that these people have no way to fix their computer if it does stop working, so this attitude isn't necessarily a bad one!)

Re:Firefox is the code base, not Mozilla.

[squall14716]

Wrong.

Mozilla 1.8 is basically just there to test Gecko which will be in Firefox 1.1. New Mozilla's are just testing bitches for Firefox.

Growth rate still huge

[Mr. Underbridge]

Does it make sense to make statements like "yup, that's as many customers as they'll ever have" based on a slowing growth rate, after exactly one major release that the public was aware of?

Especially since they're still growing, and incredibly quickly. They picked up about a percentage point a month two months straight. Since it started that at about 4%, they were seeing 25% *monthly* growth. Good god, how long could that have possibly continued?

Oh, and they only grew 14% this month. So I agree, that kills the whole "as many customers as they'll ever have" crap.

I mean, really. This is THE open-source success story of the year. How many companies see 14% monthly growth? Legally operating companies? Not between 1998-2000?

At this point, they'll easily see 7.5% by June. They'll need some continued press, and hopefully a few more killer IE bugs, but 10% by December is a very reachable goal.

I swear, sometimes I think the asshats around here won't be happy unless IE's at 0% by Thursday.