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Space Elevator Update
TheMadReaper writes "The 2005 edition of the Space Exploration Conference in Albuquerque, NM came to a conclusion earlier this week. A large fraction of the conference was devoted to the Space Elevator. Surprisingly, there hasn't been much news coverage of this conference, perhaps because it doesn't have Space Elevator in its name. The most interesting fact I got from the conference is that money is really starting to exist in the space elevator world mainly thanks to the work of Dr. Bradley Edwards at ISR and at Carbon Designs, Inc. The strong nanotube talk was also more promising than last year."
What if you happen to get stuck at some weird altitude out of reach of help? If you're stuck high and above, you might have the space shuttle come and rescue you. If you're stuck low, you might have a helicopter come and help you. At other altitudes, you're pretty much fucked.
Jeez, try to imagine the havoc if the cable comes loose from its orbital anchor. Thousands of miles of pure splat! Whatever safeguards the builders promise, the NIMBY factor is so huge, it has no chance of happening.
A "space elevator" is totally unlike anything ever done before. As I read in a Slashdot post some years ago (referring to nanotubes, the favorite among space-elevator aficionados), "When somebody has built a 40,000 millimeter bridge across a creek on campus, then we can start to talk about a 40,000 kilometer bridge straight up".
The fact that we have not yet achieved one millionth of the task (and in fact fall several orders of magnitude for that) suggests to me that, much as I would love to see a space elevator in place, the job today belongs to materials scientists who are looking at shorter-term goals.
An eye to the future is great, but experimenting on climbers is like practicing the high jump: if you're jumping twice as high today as last year, I wouldn't start drawing any exponential curves. The ribbon is the really, really hard part, and we're currently so far away from it that research energy is better spent elsewhere for a while. 2010 is way, way too close.
Maybe with enough motivation we could get that 40,000 mm bridge by 2010, but somehow I doubt you're going to raise $10 million to build a bridge. The X-prize shot somebody into space for that kind of money.
I'm prepared to be wrong. I'm a software developer, and I've learned that as a consultant I can say, "Your project is doomed" with 95% accuracy before I've even heard your name. Being a nay-sayer is easy. But the real trick is being able to spot the 5% that will actually be profitable, and there are a lot of projects more immediately deserving of this kind of money.
My first thought upon hearing of the space elevator was "what happens if it breaks?" Who cares if science suggests it won't be a catastrophe? Most terrorists do not exactly subscribe to the latest scientific journals. A lightbulb will go off in one of their dim minds and they'll try to ram a plane into the cable, or the tower, or whatever, hoping it will somehow dislodge the asteroid from orbit and send it crashing into Washington D.C. or something. It'd make a great scifi action movie, wouldn't it?
And don't forget it'd be a tremendous icon of Western achievement. You'd better believe everyone in the US, or whatever country eventually builds one, would be proud as hell of it. The media would be going on and on about how it'll usher in a new age for mankind, and so on, and so forth. If terrorists could somehow take it out, wouldn't that have tremendous psychological value? Remember that they chose the World Trade Center and Pentagon to strike at us, two (or three) buildings that symbolized, to them, everything that's wrong with the US. Wouldn't a tower that reaches into the heavens (hello, Tower of Babel?) symbolize that even more?
It's quite reasonable to take terrorism into consideration when designing a structure. While I may be obsessing over the whole "living in fear" deal, its definitely something that needs to be considered.
Before this gets too far, somebody should call NORAD and ask them how many of the 2500+ satellites and other odd bits of junk traveling at 17551mph (LEO) cross the Equator (ascending and descending nodes) and might present a collision hazard. I could be wrong, but shouldn't the answer should be "Almost all of them."
This reminds me of the asteroid/comet problem, the probability of a significant impact might be low, but it only takes one.
Catastrophe. Yes Bad Things can happen. The amount of damage done is less than might be expected.
IS less? So this has been tested, has it?
I'll tell you what I'd expect. I'd expect if something went wrong and a "load" plummeted to earth from 5km up it would be pretty difficult to predict what sort of damage it would do... There's one of many possible catastrophes we'd like to hear whay you'd expect the damage to be
Terrorism. The thing is less a target than might be expected.
Again, IS less? This fact comes from where? A poll of known terrorists, or off the top of your head?
Yes, I know... people were executed for suggesting that the world wasn't flat, etc etc... but please - if you want a rational discussion on this thing pushing "facts" like these at us is hardly likely to sway any opinion.
You might find it surprising, then, to hear that I'm very excited about the possibility of a space elevator, despite being a lifelong atheist.
It's true that the space elevator relies on technology that doesn't exist yet. But that technology is rapidly advancing, and there have been extensive studies of the material properties of carbon nanotubes in the context of use in a space elevator. Of course, you'll have to wade through pages of Biblical references to get to the actual science, but that's something you'll just have to get used to if you want to read about space elevator technology.
In addition, a mass driver is simply NOT a substitute for a space elevator. Even if a practical electromagnetic mass driver could be built, each launch would require a large amount of energy that would never be recovered. The space elevator uses less energy to send each ton of matter to GEO than any other proposed system, but that's not the really cool part. You see, each ton of matter that is returned from GEO effectively recovers the energy required to send that matter up in the first place via regenerative braking.
This is also where I should mention that, energy concerns aside, the space elevator removes one of the largest risks from space flight - reentry. Mass drivers help you get into orbit, but they don't help you return from orbit at all. In a space elevator, though, you just press the "down" button. Simple as that.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go do my religion homework. Oops, I meant to say science homework. I have such a hard time keeping those two subjects separate... but you can't really blame us clueless space elevator kooks for that, right?