3 Million in Xbox 2 Sales At Christmas?

Forbes has a look at the upcoming release of the Xbox 2 console, from Goldman-Sachs. Speculation is put forth on the unit's cost as well as how it might do in sales. From the article: "The research firm, which rates Microsoft at 'outperform,' expects Xbox 2 to be available for retail sale in October or November at a retail price of about $249 to $299."

Comments

It depends

[MilenCent]

It depends almost entirely on what lineup the system has at launch. An enhanced version of Halo 2 may help, but it won't be enough. If the system lacks backwards compatibility it'll be tougher going.

First to Market

[Moby Cock]

I think that Microsoft believes that being first to market with a next-gen console will solidify their position in that market, and I further believe that they are wrong. I'm not sure that the current generation of consoles is played-out. When the PS2 launched, it was time, the PS1 had been around for years and the envelope on that tech was pushed to the limit. The PS2 (and Nintendo) launches were timed well. I know PS3 is coming (maybe this year too) but I expect much of that is because of MS pushing to get XBox 2 out early.

My main concern is that developers will not be ready to properly take advantage of the technology at launch. Thus, there will be a laundry list of ho-hum crap on XBox2 and the early launch will begin the decline of XBox. This is all speculation and conjecture but my gut tells me that XBox 2 will be about as big a hit as the PSP. That is, some hardcore gamers will rush out and pick it up, but most will have a wait-and-see-PS3 mentality.

Re:First to Market

[neverkevin]

"I'm not sure that the current generation of consoles is played-out."

I am not sure what you mean by "played-out" but the current gen is not adequate for HD. Microsoft is trying to beat everyone to the market with a system that can truly take advantage of HDTVs, I believe this may be a good strategy for them. The jump from standard def to high def is going to be more noticeable then the jump between the that last gen of consoles to the current one.

Re:First to Market

[Jakeypants]

"[T]here will be a laundry list of ho-hum crap on XBox2"

That's how system launches go nowadays. Here're the best games (in my opinion) to launch with systems in recent years:
Dreamcast: Sonic Adventure
PS2: SSX
GBA: Super Mario Advance (Mario 2)
GameCube: Luigi's Mansion
Xbox: Halo (well, I hated it, but I'm the only one)
DS: Mario 64
PSP: Lumines (I haven't played it, but this is what they say is the best)

The DS and PSP still need more time to prove themselves, but the rest of those games, save for maybe Sonic Adventure weren't really all that good. A new system doesn't need awesome games, it just needs lots of games. The early adopters will pay $50 for shitty games just so that they have something to play on their new systems. I always bought new systems based on the promise of good games in the future, and I really don't think I'm alone in that.

Re:First to Market

[NanoGator]

"I'm not sure that the current generation of consoles is played-out."

There's a difference between "played out" and "I wanna see something new". Assuming the XBOX 2 is visually better than the XBOX (given the serious upgrade in texture RAM, I'd say this is likely) there'll be demand for it. Since the XBOX does have a decent following right now, they've already got their early adopter base.

"My main concern is that developers will not be ready to properly take advantage of the technology at launch."

The extra RAM alone will be more than enough. Textures will come in at higher res and in multiple passes. It's not like they'll have to turn the dev kit upside down to make this happen.

"This is all speculation and conjecture but my gut tells me that XBox 2 will be about as big a hit as the PSP. That is, some hardcore gamers will rush out and pick it up, but most will have a wait-and-see-PS3 mentality."

Eh. I don't think it's that clear. Part of the PSP's problem is that it's too expensive. Another part of the PSP's problem is that it's a portable PS2... so what? The XBOX 2, however, is (or at least should be) considerably more powerful. It shouldn't be any more than $299, which is a fairly standard price. And it's likely MS will show some compelling demos to say "Yep, this thing is cooll!" I've seen a few screengrabs of next-gen samples, and yeah, the difference will be noticable.

I can't say you're wrong, but you definitely will not be right until the event has happened.

Going to depend on how many they can deliver

[slusich]

I think 3 million is probably a good estimate, IF they can get them into stores that quickly. With the release being so close to the holiday season, I'll be surprised if it's not a major hassle to find one between the release date and xmas.

Re:Scope of Launch

[LWATCDR]

"1. Spend $300 on an Xbox2 with no backwards compatibility"
Are you sure? Microsoft bought VirtualPC for a reason. The new PowerPC chip might have the power to emulate the chip in the current XBox. The change to the new Video chip set maybe a none issue if the game uses directX.

"lukewarm developer support," I do not know about this. Microsoft is pretty good at making developers happy.

"2. Wait a few months and buy a more powerful, cheaper, vastly better-supported Playstation 3."
I actually hope so. I really do hope the Cell is everything they it is. But cheaper? Any proof?

Backwards? Who cares..

[Taulin]

Who cares if the XBox2 is backwards compatible if I can't transfer my game saves to the new system. There are many games (mostly by Tecmo) that don't allow memory card saves.