3 Million in Xbox 2 Sales At Christmas?

Forbes has a look at the upcoming release of the Xbox 2 console, from Goldman-Sachs. Speculation is put forth on the unit's cost as well as how it might do in sales. From the article: "The research firm, which rates Microsoft at 'outperform,' expects Xbox 2 to be available for retail sale in October or November at a retail price of about $249 to $299."

Comments

It depends

[MilenCent]

It depends almost entirely on what lineup the system has at launch. An enhanced version of Halo 2 may help, but it won't be enough. If the system lacks backwards compatibility it'll be tougher going.

First to Market

[Moby Cock]

I think that Microsoft believes that being first to market with a next-gen console will solidify their position in that market, and I further believe that they are wrong. I'm not sure that the current generation of consoles is played-out. When the PS2 launched, it was time, the PS1 had been around for years and the envelope on that tech was pushed to the limit. The PS2 (and Nintendo) launches were timed well. I know PS3 is coming (maybe this year too) but I expect much of that is because of MS pushing to get XBox 2 out early.

My main concern is that developers will not be ready to properly take advantage of the technology at launch. Thus, there will be a laundry list of ho-hum crap on XBox2 and the early launch will begin the decline of XBox. This is all speculation and conjecture but my gut tells me that XBox 2 will be about as big a hit as the PSP. That is, some hardcore gamers will rush out and pick it up, but most will have a wait-and-see-PS3 mentality.

Re:First to Market

[neverkevin]

"I'm not sure that the current generation of consoles is played-out."

I am not sure what you mean by "played-out" but the current gen is not adequate for HD. Microsoft is trying to beat everyone to the market with a system that can truly take advantage of HDTVs, I believe this may be a good strategy for them. The jump from standard def to high def is going to be more noticeable then the jump between the that last gen of consoles to the current one.

Re:First to Market

[KDR_11k]

I know PS3 is coming (maybe this year too) but I expect much of that is because of MS pushing to get XBox 2 out early.

The PS3 is scheduled for a 2006 release.

Despite the fate that hit the consoles trying to launch before Sony (Saturn, Dreamcast) I believe MS is going to take first place with the Xenon. Sony had their two generations on the top now, their policies are starting to piss devs off and the Cell might prove to be a bigger problem for devs than thought to be. MS has the momentum, they are seen as cool by the casual gamer. They are preparing to offer some games that appeal to the japanese customer base.

Historically, noone lasted more than two generations on the top and it was always the newcomer who took the crown. Atari fell after one gen, Nintendo and Sega after two. Analysts are predicting Sony's downfall and the PSP might hurt them.

I, for one, don't welcome our new monopolist console overlords.

Re:First to Market

[neverkevin]

HDTV is not expensive anymore. My mom just got a 32" HDTV for about $500, which is about $100 more the the average standard def 32" TV. HDTV is not just for the rich anymore.

Re:First to Market

[Jakeypants]

"[T]here will be a laundry list of ho-hum crap on XBox2"

That's how system launches go nowadays. Here're the best games (in my opinion) to launch with systems in recent years:
Dreamcast: Sonic Adventure
PS2: SSX
GBA: Super Mario Advance (Mario 2)
GameCube: Luigi's Mansion
Xbox: Halo (well, I hated it, but I'm the only one)
DS: Mario 64
PSP: Lumines (I haven't played it, but this is what they say is the best)

The DS and PSP still need more time to prove themselves, but the rest of those games, save for maybe Sonic Adventure weren't really all that good. A new system doesn't need awesome games, it just needs lots of games. The early adopters will pay $50 for shitty games just so that they have something to play on their new systems. I always bought new systems based on the promise of good games in the future, and I really don't think I'm alone in that.

Re:First to Market

[ZephyrXero]

The market will not support 3 consoles. It isn't right now, and no one but those big three want it. We need an Open Console Standards group to form and create an open format so that all games work on all systems.

Re:First to Market

[NanoGator]

"I'm not sure that the current generation of consoles is played-out."

There's a difference between "played out" and "I wanna see something new". Assuming the XBOX 2 is visually better than the XBOX (given the serious upgrade in texture RAM, I'd say this is likely) there'll be demand for it. Since the XBOX does have a decent following right now, they've already got their early adopter base.

"My main concern is that developers will not be ready to properly take advantage of the technology at launch."

The extra RAM alone will be more than enough. Textures will come in at higher res and in multiple passes. It's not like they'll have to turn the dev kit upside down to make this happen.

"This is all speculation and conjecture but my gut tells me that XBox 2 will be about as big a hit as the PSP. That is, some hardcore gamers will rush out and pick it up, but most will have a wait-and-see-PS3 mentality."

Eh. I don't think it's that clear. Part of the PSP's problem is that it's too expensive. Another part of the PSP's problem is that it's a portable PS2... so what? The XBOX 2, however, is (or at least should be) considerably more powerful. It shouldn't be any more than $299, which is a fairly standard price. And it's likely MS will show some compelling demos to say "Yep, this thing is cooll!" I've seen a few screengrabs of next-gen samples, and yeah, the difference will be noticable.

I can't say you're wrong, but you definitely will not be right until the event has happened.

Going to depend on how many they can deliver

[slusich]

I think 3 million is probably a good estimate, IF they can get them into stores that quickly. With the release being so close to the holiday season, I'll be surprised if it's not a major hassle to find one between the release date and xmas.

Re:On the price

[UWC]

Gamecube launched at $199. And there's speculation that since XBox 2 will have a few variations with respect to included hardware that the lowest end might be a little below the standard price.

Why so early?

[Andy_R]

The longer they waited to launch, the better the launch titles would be, and hardware improvements will mean they could either make the machine better, or reduce their losses for the same spec.

If they do go early, they are trading off just one christmas as the only next-gen console in the shops against 4 years of being the least modern console when the other 2 arrive.

There are only 2 ways this strategy is going to be cost effective:
If they can get a contolling market share over that first holiday season or;
If they have the processor power/locked in developers needed to compete on the quality of games for the next 4 years, or however long this generation lasts, despit the others having more hardweare development time.

Given that Nintendo already tried the second option and pretty much failed to set the world on fire with the Gamecube, and Sega tried the first option with the Dreamcast and got burnt to a crisp, I really don't know what Microsoft are thinking.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Xbox2 strategy was a quick cash-grab before folding the home gaming divison, especially if Sony's cell chips deliver the computing power they are promising in a usable form.

Re:Why so early?

[ArsonSmith]

I bet all three marketing and management teams got tegether at some big convention and made a bet. They'll all three release systems with the exact same hardware (from IBM) but spin it in their own marketing manor and plan release times according to all the theroies you see thrown around and see who can win.

It would be an interesting experiment at least.

Not a trackball, and the new Dreamcast?

[solowCX]

There is no way that is a trackball. Unless you have really long fingers there would be no way to comfortably hold the controller while using it. More than likely it is a white Xbox logo, IF this the real controller. Microsoft is seemingly taking the Sega track for Xbox 2 however. Going from black system to white, releasing it before everyone else, and (most likely) using a disc with less capacity (Dreamcast used a GD-ROM instead of DVD). Probably other similarities as well.

Two words - Blu Ray

[GreatDrok]

I think MS is in an unfortunate position if they want to grab the HD high ground as their XBox2 is supposed to only have a DVD drive. While it is conceivable that they will push more of their WMV9 HD DVDs for this platform I would say it is much more likely that there will be significant HD movies on the Blu Ray discs that the PS3 is going to use. More to the point, the extra capacity of the discs will give PS3 developers more room to do some great things. The more I look the more the XBox2 looks like the Dreamcast of this next generation. The DC had a CD-ROM drive whereas the competition have DVD drives. The DC came out too early and the game developers couldn't justify working just on that platform so games didn't really shine compared with those for the PlayStation. It doesn't bode well for Microsoft. They really should wait until HD-DVD is ready and go with that but of course then they lose their six month (at best) head start on Sony. Without an HD video format the XBox2 is going to look old hat before its packaging is cold....

Re:Scope of Launch

[LWATCDR]

"1. Spend $300 on an Xbox2 with no backwards compatibility"
Are you sure? Microsoft bought VirtualPC for a reason. The new PowerPC chip might have the power to emulate the chip in the current XBox. The change to the new Video chip set maybe a none issue if the game uses directX.

"lukewarm developer support," I do not know about this. Microsoft is pretty good at making developers happy.

"2. Wait a few months and buy a more powerful, cheaper, vastly better-supported Playstation 3."
I actually hope so. I really do hope the Cell is everything they it is. But cheaper? Any proof?

Backwards? Who cares..

[Taulin]

Who cares if the XBox2 is backwards compatible if I can't transfer my game saves to the new system. There are many games (mostly by Tecmo) that don't allow memory card saves.

Re:Wireless controller?

[Ayaress]

I hope not. I've always had bad luck with wireless controllers. They're great and all, but all it takes is a glitch in the signal for a split second while a boss is about to bring a huge hammer down on my head, and it'll suffer one of those unfortunate warranty-ending accidents.