Slashdot Mirror
Asteroid 2004 MN4 May Hit Earth After All
ControlFreal writes "Asteroid 2004 MN4 was introduced earlier on Slashdot, and although scientists are now fairly certain that is will miss earth on April 13th, 2029, the modification to its orbit caused by Earth's gravity may still cause an impact one or a couple of orbits further down the road, the Times reports; the impact probabilities in 2035, 2036 of 2037 will not be known until the exact modification to its orbit is known; in 2029, that is. By then it may be too late for effective counter-measures.
An impact would cause an energy release equivalent to about 1 Gigaton of TNT (~4e+18 Joule), and while that won't cause a massive extinction event, it causes widespread devastation.
More info on 2004 MN4 can be found here and here."
From the summary:
I hope this rock hits our planet. I really do.
This may be the spur humanity needs to get us up off our collective keisters and establish a viable off-planet colony before it's too late. It would be an unprecedented catastrophe, but still survivable, and it seems like this is the only way we're going to learn.
Then again, it could be a bad thing...instilling a sense of false security. (Hey...this asteroid hit us, and we're still here. Guess all those asteriod doomsday scenarios are bunk.)
I rather suspect the former will be the prevailing attitude...trouble is, mankind has a notoriously short attention span...would this command enough attention for us to start a space colony project...and actually finish it?
Will our eulogy be: "The humans became extinct because they couldn't concentrate hard enough on their space program."?
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~ |rip/\/\aster /\/\onkey
in 2029, that is. By then it may be too late for effective counter-measures.
Bull. 2029 to 2035 gives us ~6 years to prepare. If the asteroid actually posed clear and present danger, then a crash program to build an interceptor could be accomplished. With apologies to Pournelle and Niven (warning, associates link), the catch-22 is that we would have to give up our fear of the Orion. Using standard building practices + what we know of advanced hydrogen bomb design, we could potentially launch an Orion within three years. The options would be to either send it on an unmanned kinetic-impact course with the asteroid, or to send a team ala "Armageddon" (or some other lame stop-the-asteroid movie) to manually plant and detonate the charges.
If I'm reading the info correctly, the asteroid is a mere 46 gigatonnes. So as long as we get to it fast enough, there shouldn't be any difficulty in nudging it into a higher orbit. Of course, we may only be able to buy some time in the short term. Orbital mechanics is tricky, and not as simple as just "pushing" the asteroid out of the way. We may actually have to push it toward earth to slingshot it into a more acceptable trajectory.
One way or another, we have the tech. It's just scary as all hell to behold, and in a crash program would almost certainly add a small amount to the nuclear pollution that already exists on our planet. But if it's a choice between three random deaths from cancer or millions dead from a massive impact, I think the choice is fairly clear. Especially when the former is theoretical and the later is firm.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
I wonder how close it would have to come to have an effect like that, and what those probabilities would be like?
As it is, I'm not losing sleep over a %0.042 chance that this puppy will shorten my retirement.
John
The Asian earthquake was some magnitudes greater than that. Of course it's all in how the energy is dissipated.
Transcend Humanity. Please.
Hmmmm, just happens to be a "change of course" call around the same time NASA budgets are up for review... ;)
"Nature bats last..."
I wonder if people will build more bunkers. I know a person who owns a house, and there is a bunker in the back yard, from the days of a USSR nuclear strike threat (Back in the 70's and early 80's the drill for a nuclear strike was to climb under the desk in the school). It looks kinda flimsy to me, I am guessing the salesperson was real good. It looks more like a shed that is half way in the ground.
But, if someone wanted to make a good bunker, not just to ease the mind, but something to survive in, how deep would it need to be? I live on flat land, so I can not tunnle into a mountain, which I would assume to be the best choice. What is needed for a good oxygen supply, can you generate your own, or do you need an exhaust? How long would you need to stay underground, and where would you store the water and food? And would you have more than one exit out of the bunker, in case one side suffers damage and is burried under?
I think it would be cool to have a series of bunkers, with some pre-picked neighbors, people you trust. Have 7 or 8 bunkers, maybe a mile apart, each one acting as a node. The chances for survival would increase, and the time would pass quicker.
Rosco: "If brains were gunpowder, Enos couldn't blow his nose."
I can't even imagine what things will be like in another 30 years...I mean, if in 1915 you told someone that in 30 years a bomb would be built powerful enough to flatten a small city, they'd laugh at you. And in 1970 you told someone that in 30 years we would not colonize mooon at some extent, they'd laugh at you. So what's your point? All we can say is future is unpredictable, we can either have a technological breaktrhough of some sort and can zoom into awesome techs or just stay right here..
"There is no flag large enough to cover the shame of killing innocent people."--Howard Zinn
Hmm, lets take that one step further.. Lets capture it in a very high orbit and use it as the counterweight for our Space Elevator. We should just be getting out technology down pat by that time and, hell, this thing is big enough we could actually use it as a base for all sorts of stuff.. kinda a mini-moon.. with elevator access. heh, it'd even make the ISS obsolete. You could use it to capture/send spaceships from/to other sites (Mars...)
Even if we had an off-planet colony, how would we populate it? We can't even get a hundred people into space let alone a thousand, let alone a million, let alone a billion.
Would be a good chance to put a digger on an asteroid, maybe even park a HST-like observatory on it...
...almost as good as a lunar base...
I look at this and know that, like many people, this is a cash vehicle and a licence for the US government to do what always wanted to do. With a big scare like this, the US government can get all the funding it wants to put a nuclear spacecraft into orbit. This will allow them to pour trillions of dollars into the "greater good". While they are at it, they will have a nuclear missile platform in space to control any government it so chooses.... with the "permission" of any partnered countries! "Either you with us, or your terrorists".
.. It will be convenient for the US government to use this new "planet saver" platform for other "very important" military moves against "terrorist" organizations.
Now NASA gets a blank check to research and develop anything it wants.
Kinda like someone fending off "killer minnows" in a bucket of water using a shotgun and a paint mixer.
I bet a case of Beer that the US government will make an announcement to develop a space vehicle that has the ability to blast something. Not really thinking that all you need to do is give the big rock a shove, so that it never comes near the earth.
Why would we spend trillions of dollars combating a threat that seems to be important mainly to obscure scientists looking for a name, and 15 year old /. space fanbois?
Seriously, if we had a trillion dollars to spend, fight hunger or AIDS or *actual proven problems*, not some theoretical "an asteroid could hit earth".
You do understand that those movies were, er, fiction, right?
I'm not much of a paraskavedekatriaphobe, but if the probability of it missing doesn't improve, I'm becoming superstitious.
Signature.
If the sole reason you want a space program is paranoid fear that we might be hit by a rock, that's a pretty sad reason.
I never charaterized the fear of our species being obliterated by a global catastrophe (what you so quaintly refer to as being 'hit by a rock') as my sole reason to colonize space...it is merely the most important.
Let's keep the fearmongering to a dull roar here. How sick does our society have to be when someone start's talking like a bad sci-fi thriller about the end of the world?
No, let's not. Let's let the fearmongering rise to a fever pitch. You might not want to admit it, but fear is much more motivating than any of the high and mighty ideals you're going on about. I would much rather humanity takes to the stars because we want to...because we're curious...because we can...but our window of opportunity is closing. Between the next world-extinction event (which most scientists agree is overdue) and our rapid squandering of this world's limited resourses, if we don't get into space soon, it's likely we won't be able to when we have to. If we hve to be whipped into leaving Earth, so be it.
The sole purpose of any space program should be like any other science program, to make the unknown known and to expand the horizons of human understanding.
Wrong. The primary purpose of a space-colonization program is enhanced survival of the species. Expanding the horizons of human understanding is a fine and noble goal, but it comes in a distant second to insuring that humans are still around to understand stuff.
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~ |rip/\/\aster /\/\onkey
So you are saying that in order to light a fire under people about terrorism, you would, say, start a war with some random country that has nothing to do with terrorism just to get people to care?
There are too many scary parallels between the Iraq war, Vietnam, pornography and this solution to fix our lagging space program.
"All great wisdom is contained in .signature files"
For a frame of reference, I Gigaton of TNT explosive yield is about the size of 20 Tsar Bomba class nuclear explosions . If the asteroid was kind enough to hit us somewhere on land and thinly populated, such as the Sahara Desert or Siberia, the main effect would be a volcanic winter, such as what happened after the explosion of Santorini, in about 1650 BC or Mount Tambora in 1815 . Not a lot of fun, but civilization would probably go on as usual for most places.
If it hit in the middle of the ocean, a Tsunami could conceivably wipe out many of the major cities on the Pacific Rim or Atlantic and European seacoasts. Tens of millions could die, and many of the developed world's major cities would be laid waste. Whole countries would be crippled, and the ensuing chaos would disrupt world trade, and potentially destabilize entire regions.
A direct hit on a major population center, such as Southern California, the area around Bejing, China, or Bombay, India would cause millions of casualties and huge suffering, but the effects would be local enough that the rest of civilization would find a way to get by, even if important industries were wiped out. Such a hit would be a relative longshot, but could happen.
There will be no eulogy. Humanity will die quickly.
Denial will reign, as no preparations are done to evacuate the planet. Some will say there is no way to evacuate everyone. Others will say there's nowhere else to go. The real thinkers will know, if we had started years ago, we would have had a chance.
Most will die from the intial impact.
The impact will crack the planet's crust, resulting in volcanos, earthquakes, and tsunamis, which continue for years.
Many will die due to the dependance on transportation systems, or more specifically the failure of them.
A very few will survive in the cold dust and ash filled atmosphere, through the shaking ground, and giant destroying the costal areas. They will survive for many months on their preserved food reserves, and filtered air. Alone, they will consider themselves the lucky ones.
In the end, none will survive.
Many millennia later, other civilizations will have grown in far outlying areas of the universe. They will look at the dry and barren planet, covered by rocks and dirt, and say "nothing could have ever lived here. It's always been a dead planet"
Eventually, despite taunts, archeologists will find disputed traces of life on the planet. Some artifacts will be found. They will be found frozen in the ice of the polar ice caps, or burried in the sands of the vast deserts. Still others will be below hundreds of feet of dirt, on the iced tops of frozen oceans.
The artifacts will be carefully examined for many years. There will be many theories to what they are, and what the markings may mean. Could there have been life on this far distant planet? Could a civilization have thrived in this desolate place? Maybe these creatures could be a clue to our ancestory?
In the end, their markings will be considered random discolorations. The artifacts will be labeled as "common rocks", and thoughtfully put into storage well away from public sight.
No, as egotistical as we are, there will ne eulogy. There will be no memory of anything we've accomplished. We will be part of the dust on a barren planet, spinning slowly around a dying star.
Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
The Overrateed/Underrated mods are a little interesting.
:).
If you read the Mod FAQ about them (last bullet) you'll see that you can get some odd (but unlikely I guess) combos like +5 Flamebait (that would be cool though
Also, and I don't know this for fact but I've seen others discuss it, if you mod using Under/Overrated too much, you may eventually be given fewer/no mod points. The reason being is that Under/Overrated mods cannot be metamoderated so you get trolls with mod points using them to mod people down without valid reason (political, whatever). There's some big discussions about users getting hit by tons of Overrated mods because they have enough Foes with mod points. Basically there's no way to "balance out" Under/Overrated mods.
Anyone know more about this?
"What do you despise? By this are you truly known." --Princess Irulan, Manual of Muad'Dib
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Speculation here, but likely what ever condition we have on earth after an asteroid impact would still be better than the current conditions on the moon or on mars. If we can design a self sustaining mars colony, we can probably design a self sustaining post apocalype earth society as well.