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Bill Gates: Cellphone will Beat iPod
93,000 writes "CNN is running an article featuring Gates' prediction that the iPod is on the way out. From the article: 'As good as Apple may be, I don't believe the success of the iPod is sustainable in the long run.' His prediction for a successor? Mobile phones-- powered by none other than Windows Mobile 5.0, of course."
Well there already are phones that play MP3s, it's just that nobody wants one. I don't want to have to worry about missing a phone call because my cellphone ran out of batteries while I was listening to a Red Dwarf audio book. Until Microsoft starts making Tricorders count me out.
/sarcasm
But I'm sure Apple would be fools not to follow Gates' prediction, after all Microsoft is the leader in innovation.
That's a safe bet...if the IPod remains as it is. There's no chance that the IPod won't morph into something else in the future...
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Yeah, it sounds a bit ridiculous, but think about it. People don't like carrying around multiple devices with them, and out of all the portable devices out there, the only one that has emerged as a necessity is the cellphone. These days, most cellphones you can buy have most of the features of the PDAs of yore. Listening to music is a fairly small feature to add to a device.
If you look at Nokia's cell phones, about half of them have cameras. A few years ago, a camera phone would've been pretty rare. I think that's where things are heading with hard drive cell phones, and once you have a hard drive, playing music off of it is pretty simple. Sure, the iPod is fairly entrenched as of right now, but when people's iPods break, they'll already have a device that can play music, making another iPod purchase much less lucrative. As more iPods break than get replaced, these Windows Mobile phones will be waiting to take the MP3 player market away.
I believe there is an excellent chance of the mp3 player and cell phone converging into a single device. There are about 1.7 billion cell phones in use today. That means all those people are already carrying around an electronic device. Give them somethign in the same form factor that also plays music and you've got a winner.
As for the part about them all running Windows, let's just say that remains to be seen.
"I'd rather be a lightning rod than a seismometer." -Ken Kesey
Wonder why the iTunes phone isn't out yet?
No carrier wants to touch it. Let people sync their *own* files with their *own* phone?? Unheard of!
They want to charge $2 or more per song that you download to your phone. "Paying for convenience", as it were, or so they say...
I won't be a fan of Ipods until the play my ogg files (until then, my Rio Karma will do just fine), but Bill Gate's is full of shit.
The Ipod interface is excellent, and with manufacturers producing quad-channel-GSM cell-phones-on-a-chip, Apple is going to have a much easier time adding cell-phone functionality to an Ipod than Microsoft is ever going to have adding an equivelently easy-to-use and satisfying interface to their so-called smart-phones.
I like my Motorola A700 PDA/Phone, but I don't use it to listen to music despite the fact that it is a capable MP3 player. The Ipod and Rio Karma are optimized for music playback--I've yet to see a cell phone that is so optimized without giving up PDA or cell-phone features to do it. I suspect Apple will be the first out with something that does just work, and it will probably be some variation of the Ipod.
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Remember that this is the same man who thought the Internet was a fad that would go nowhwere, and that MSN was Microsoft's online future.
Very few of his predictions have ever been accurate. I'm surprised that Apple's stock didn't go UP when this bit was published.
Microsoft has tried to do this already with the Smartphone. I have a C500 running Windows Mobile, with a 512MB Mini-SD card. I'm with him that soon we'll have mini hard disks in the phones.
What I don't buy is that people will use it as an iPod replacement. Why? Because it's designed by committee. The headphone jack is on the bottom of the phone. It's 2.5mm so you have to carry around a bulky adaptor.
The phone ships with Media Player 9 as default which sucks. You have to navigate to Media Player to change a song, and if someone rings you have to unplug the headphones. (I guess this wouldn't matter but they provide such shit ones with the one that you have to use your own.
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Gates was saying everyone would switch to Tablet PCs a while ago. I think they had a thing called Passport that was supposed to be wildly successful as well. They're always pushing high powered high priced things in the portable/PDA universe. But sometimes something small and simple (and reliable) like an iPod mini is preferable. It does one thing and does it well.
Actually, I was much more sure of this a few years ago than I am today. I say that because of 2 things.
... selling you expensive monthly service plans. The phones are just a means to an end for them, and you'll always see them crippling functionality if it allows them to charge extra for using a feature the way THEY want you to use it. Think "Jack of all trades, master of none." when you think "all in one cellphones". That's all you're gonna get.
1. Cellphone service still hasn't really come down much in price. Years ago, everyone seemed to think the emergence of more competing services would bring monthly charges way down, but it hasn't really worked out like that. Anyone can buy themselves a music player or even a PDA and get lots of use out of it, out of the box, without subscribing to anything. Cellphones, on the other hand, are useless paperweights as soon as you stop paying for monthly service. You can argue that cellphones are much more of a "necessity" - but that really depends on who YOU are. For quite a few people, they're just a convenience - as they could wait until they got home or to work to make/return their calls.
2. Cellphone makers have been horribly clueless in building a "convergence device" that really meets people's needs. Look at the latest "cream of the crop" PDA/camera/phones, for example. Take the Treo 650. Still so new, you can't even get on through many major carriers like Verizon, but if you do - you find out it's very fragile/breakable, not to mention still almost too large to carry around comfortably. Battery life could be better too, and as a portable music player, it doesn't hold a candle to something like even a first generation iPod. Meanwhile, like most all other camera phones, it takes lousy low-resolution photos. Where's the desirability in that??
I think the truth is, cellphone makers are really only interested in one thing
but "always" is not a very long time. Frankly, the Micro$oft Monopoly has only really existed for a little over a decade, and for that decade, they have had virtually no competition, thus explaining why none of their software has really made any significant improvements in that decade. Now here we are with Tiger out the door and Longhorn a year and a half away. Apple has GAINED 1% market share in the last quarter, and Morgan Stanley forecasts them having 6% by year's end. Granted, these are still pretty insignificant gains until you consider that Apple hasn't gained market share for over twenty years... Eventually, Microsoft is going to have to innovate to stay in.
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I'm sure that at one time, he predicted that Microsoft would dominate the desktop computing market.
I agree that Gates has done some great things in his time, but when I read articles that he has written over the years, I am struck by how often he has been dead wrong. The Microsoft Global Network vs. the internet is a case in point.
It seems he made a few bucks off that,..
So because he is rich that makes him right on everything he says? Probably not. Just as people who support gun ownership. They find his support for gun control to be way off base.
Bill has done some great things, but prognostication isn't his strong suit.
"Rocky Rococo, at your cervix!"
As to Ipods, whatever Apple's flaws, the marketing of the IPod has been a marvel to see. Apple has managed to brand themselves, and I don't think MS is going to be bashing into that market as easily as they think.
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Looking at the billions of dollars he has I'd say enough.
So being rich makes you right?
I guess you would be running your computer on DC power if that were true. Edison made that prediction and he was rich as well.
"Rocky Rococo, at your cervix!"
People love the ipod not just of it looks, but also because of its userinterface. A mobile phone is already more complex, and I see people with blackberrys and stuff like that switch back to normal phones just because it is easier to use, and has less bloat. Devices like ipod will stay, just like that people like to buy appliances. Windows will go way out because of its everyway possible use, to big interfaces and tough to find programs.
Disclaimer:
Yes, I use an ipod, the interface could even be easier.
Yes, I use windows, linux (kde) and OS X: They are all bloated. OS X certainly is not the easiest of the three when you want to find a program.
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They are morphing into invisibility.
Where can you go from there? Anywhere you want to. You are invisible.
I wouldn't worry about product 'stagnation'.
When the iMac first came out, in 'bondi blue', it didn't look like a box.
The other PC makers couldn't match it. They were stuck with their beige boxes. Then they tried putting colored plastic panels around the same chassis that used to be in those beige boxes.
We have seem the iMac morph twice, the 'football' and the half ball with a scren slung in front of it, and now its just a flat panel on a pedestal. It was obvious what was happening but the PC makers are still selling their boxes.
I'm thinking that the MacMini and the tablet that Apple just patented, using a wireless network to hook up the devices are the future of home computing.
PCs are still stuck in their old chassis, requiring a desk and a chair in a 'work station' and instead Apple is offering invisibility.
If you had to change a house around, which would you rather have, a monolith with a big footprint or something you can't see except for a portable tablet?
I'm not ever going to touch the iPod, iPod Mini and iPod Shuffle. And neither can the PC manufacturers.
Apple 'gets it'.
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The trouble is, all of these features saddle the poor little device with a complexity that will boggle even the veteran cell fan. You have to wade your way through a staggering 583 menu commands, along with far too many pointless "Are you sure?" confirmations, to find them all. Just looking up your own phone number requires eight button presses, for goodness' sake.
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The trouble is that Gates assumes that everyone else is dumb and he's smart, so no matter what someone else has done, he can start with their ideas and improve upon it. He doesn't take into account that others are doing the same thing, and that by the time the MS version gets out the door the innovator has moved on.
Witness:
At least some journalists are taking notice:
Kevin Fox
If you think of it as "just a phone" then, yes, of course it's going to compare badly size-wise when compared to dedicated phones.
But if you think of it as a PDA with a built-in phone, which is how you should be looking at it, then there's nothing at all wrong with its size at all.
Look at it this way, if it were any smaller then it would be useless as a PDA, right? So what good is making it smaller?
Seriously, I don't have huge hands (I'd describe mine as being of average size) and I find myself looking at most phones, PDAs, etc (not just the Treo range) and wishing the buttons were a little bit bigger: I'd hate to think how unusable these devices would be to a lot of people if they became any smaller and the buttons were to either become smaller still or be less well-spaced out.
Too big and bulky? You're kidding, right?
"Accept that some days you are the pigeon, and some days you are the statue." - David Brent, Wernham Hogg
What people seem to be forgetting is that service providers only want a phone with a music player if they can provide the music.
... Not that there is anything wrong with this, but he is not in it for the music.
Apple and Motorola have already had trouble finding takers for their iTunes capable phones because service providers want to sell music to the customer, rather than have them load it off of their computer. It doesn't gain them a whole lot if you can upload your own music.
Plus they are selling crappy ringtones for $3 or more, so can you imagine what would happen if they sold whole songs? They would have to lower their profitable ringtone price point, or sell songs for an outrageous amount, and I'm guessing on the latter assuming they only let you buy music from them. (And probably charge you for the internet access that you will have to use to browse for songs)
Service providers don't want you to have your own music. You hear people whine about iTunes music store, this would be Cingular Music store. $5 single songs at 64k that are DRM's to only your phone.
And as for Bill Gates, he doesn't care about the music player. He wants you to get the phone for the music player and then be tied to microsoft products to sync it. And since you'll also have Word on your phone, you'll need it on your computer... Excel, Outlook,
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Now, I think there's the real point. Maybe he's right that PDAs and MP3 players will eventually disappear, and in the end we'll have cell phones with PDA features and MP3 playback. Maybe the cameras in phones will become good enough that amateur point-and-shooters won't ever buy stand alone cameras again. And maybe it will be cheap enough that these phones will even be the free phones you get with a 2 year contract. In fact, I'm not sure "maybe" is quite right. I think all this will "probably" happen sooner or later. As tiny cameras, mp3 players, cell phones, and everything else get smaller and cheaper, we'll probably see more and more multifunction all-in-one type devices. So in that sense, yeah, Gates is probably right.
Of course, pretty much everyone has been saying this for years and years on top of that. Wasn't the reason Steve Jobs didn't like the Newton was that he thought the functionality should just be built into cell-phones? (I remember reading something to that effect)
So considering how blatantly obvious it is, who's to say that Apple won't get there first? I mean, that's the real question, isn't it, who will get there first? Will it be the phone companies building MP3 players into their phones, or will it be the MP3 companies building phones into their players, or will Palm release a hard-drive based version of the Trio?
Well, Apple's already built some photo functionality into their iPod, and it seems like it's only a matter of time before we see a iPod/camera hybrid (I think so, anyway). Motorola is releasing an iTunes phone in a few months. Apple has address-book and calendar syncing in the iPod, and it's not hard to imagine essentially integrating the tech from an iPod shuffle into a cell-phone. So I don't know, I wouldn't count Apple out yet.
So, I guess I'm saying that I don't think this is an issue of Bill Gates' vision of the future of technology being different that others'. It's solely an issue of who can put all the pieces of hardware together, write software that will run it in an easy and intuitive manner so people are comfortable with it, and put it all into a reasonably-priced physically-small package. It's anybody's game right now, but I'd certainly put Apple (either by itself or by partnering with another company) among the top contenders.
Not to mention that in many cases where you'd want to make that emergency call ... you can't get reception! Doh!