Xbox 360 Launch to Face Several Hurdles

JamesO writes "Microsoft's J Allard has said that the Xbox 360 will be released in differing versions over the next five years. "It's something we're not ready to announce yet," he said. "I don't think it's a one-size-fits-all [approach] over the next five-year horizon." Relatedly JamesO writes "Microsoft is saying that anywhere up to 40 games could be released for the Xbox 360 during its launch period, but which of those will make or break the console's launch? Pro-G choose their ten most important Xbox 360 launch games. Not the ten best launch games, but the most important for the success of the Xbox 360."

Comments

Backflip

[bugmenotus]

So it seems Microsoft has done a complete 180 on previous statements? How ironic!

Re:Backflip

[Strokke]

I figured out Microsoft's tactics on this! Beat all the other companies to the market by using a soon to be out of date system! It's brilliant! Take the money from R&D and pump that into advertising...next thing you know cha-ching! They'll actually release their real system around the same time as PS3....but not before they've sold millions of the "basic" systems. Hey Bill....high five!

Re:Backflip

[James_Aguilar]

I know that they haven't said much, but I've read between the lines and I can tell you everything you need to know:

"Guys, listen, the XBox 360 that you've all been waiting for . . . well . . . it's really just a PC with a graphics card that will be out of date next week." -- BillG

Evidence:
+ Unified SDK for PC and XBox game programming
+ XBox original is also a PC
+ Say no more, sir, say no more

Re:Backflip

[aichpvee]

Isn't it actually more like a mac with a graphics card and some half-assed windows emulation software for running original xbox games?

Re:Backflip

[Matthias Wiesmann]

Actually, it will be like an old mac, as the newer ones will be using intel processors. Things are really going in loops.

Skip TFA

[kirkb]

10: Kameo: Elements of Power
9: The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
8: Ridge Racer 6
7: N3: Ninety-Nine Nights
6: Dead or Alive 4
5: Call of Duty 2
4: Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter
3: Project Gotham Racing 3
2: Madden NFL 06
1: Perfect Dark Zero

Re:Skip TFA

[kusanagi374]

Kameo and Ninety-Nine Nights are the only ones that aren't sequels. The rest, on the other hand...

It seems that the market is fucked up in such a way that the only thing companies can come with are SEQUELS. Same happened for the PS2, and now it's going to happen for the Xbox 360 and PS3.

Re:Skip TFA

[Bobartig]

Super Mario Brothers 2 wasn't really a sequel to SMB. Nintendo took a game called Doki Doki Panic, which had a completely separate cast of characters, and its own story, redrew all the characters to be from the mario world, and released it in the US as Super Mario Brothers 2. I mean, can we really call this a sequel when its just a completely different game with a Super Mario name tag slapped on it?

Then in a bizarre twist, they released the american version of the japanese game as Super Mario USA (since the japanese already had a Super Mario Brothers 2, in a game that was very similar to the first title, and has been released several times in various forms on US carts as "Lost Levels")

Despite the wierdities of its sordid past, SMB 2 is still a great game!

Re:Skip TFA

[Babbster]

I don't know about you, but for me that list seems HIGHLY biased to the american market. Why the hell would the rest of the world worry that much about a NFL game to justify it being the SECOND PLACE on that list??

I suspect the reasoning is that Madden, every year, is either the #1 or #2 top-selling game in the US market, if not the world. That seems pretty important, whether or not the Japanese like the game.

Oh, and in case you weren't aware, the US gaming market is much larger than that in either Japan or Europe. All the talk about how Japanese consumption defines the success of a console is based on a) the fact that every console designed and/or produced by a US company since the Nintendo has sucked compared to its competitors and b) just plain old fallacy. For example, the Saturn, a console made by a Japanese company, did pretty well in Japan yet tanked everywhere else. The end result of that was creating a situation where Sega ran out of money to compete.

It might ALSO be worth noting that the list is generated based on the US launch titles. There are titles being developed that, so far, are only planned for release in Japan. There are Japanese RPGs, soccer games and others being developed specifically for Japanese Xbox 360 customers.

Short version: Your criticism is based on little but thin air.

Re:Skip TFA

[badasscat]

Oh, and in case you weren't aware, the US gaming market is much larger than that in either Japan or Europe.

CESA industry sales figures for Japanese publishers/manufacturers from last year:

Year - Software / Hardware : Total
2004 - $4.28 billion / $4.03 billion : $8.31 billion

And by region:

Year - Japan/Overseas : Total
2004 - $3.06 billion / $5.16 billion : $8.22 billion

The total North American video game market had $9.9 billion in sales over the same period.

Now, you can say that $9.9 billion in sales is more than three times $3.06 billion, but a couple things:

a) $3.06 billion is still no small chunk of change

b) That's in a country with half the population and about 1/20 the land mass (meaning distribution and marketing is much, much cheaper)

c) That's just one country, vs. Canada/US/Mexico for North American market numbers

d) $5 billion worth of Japanese software/hardware was sold overseas, meaning a large chunk of that North American market number is made up of Japanese games and systems

e) The total Japanese game industry is nearly the same size as the North American game industry in total dollar sales (in 2003, it was actually larger).

For example, the Saturn, a console made by a Japanese company, did pretty well in Japan yet tanked everywhere else. The end result of that was creating a situation where Sega ran out of money to compete.

And the same thing would have happened to Microsoft - with a successful console in the US and Europe but not Japan - if they did not have billions of dollars from their operating system business to rely on. They have lost billions on the Xbox. Part of the reason for that is approximately 33% of the sales they envisioned never materialized, because the system tanked so hard in Japan. They literally have only two of the three markets they thought they would.

I think you're underestimating the importance of Japan to the overall video game market. No system can be a financial success these days without being successful in Japan, in addition to the other markets. Japan is a huge cash cow - it is a much more profitable market than either the US or Europe, which are both nightmares of marketing and distribution for various reasons (different languages, long distances, political borders, cultures, etc.).

This is an awful idea.

[Anonymous Coward]

The whole concept that drives consoles is that they are easy to use. You see the Xbox logo, you know you can play it. This idea has obviously degraded some with the online movement (not everyone will be able to play online), but this is taking it too far. When I buy a game system, there should be no compatibilty question. That's what my PC is for.

The average parent isn't going to know what to pick for their kid, and faced with a choice they might just turn around and pick up a console they know will be able to support any game on the system.

More experienced/older gamers might look at the inferior versions of the system as worthless, and will simply wait until the maxed out system comes down to a reasonable price. A good analogy would be with computers. The average slashdotter isn't going to go buy a celeron notebook (lets go with plain old celeron, when they sucked) when there are vastly superior Pentium M notebooks available. They will wait for the better system's price to come down. Maybe not such a great analogy, but hopefully it gets the point across.

Version Release Order

[SoulMaster]

1. XBox 360 95- Way better than the Xbox, but you have to take it apart and rebuild it monthly. Optional "Plus Pack" to add themes.

2. XBox 360 98- Plug and Play joystics added (sort of). Though it crashed less, its not really that much different than XBox 360 95 but everyone thinks they want it.

3. XBox 360 CE- This is the portable version, Duh!

4. XBox 360 98SE- Exactly the same as XBox 360 98, but it costs more, and M$ says it's better so people think they want it more. Also included, a Weezer Video.

5. XBox 360 ME- This version crashes almost as much as the XBox 360 95, but it has built-in backups for when it corrupts, so you've got that going for you.

6. XBox 360 XP- Much better than all previous versions, but the EU and SEC will make Microsoft remove the browser, which is full of bugs... The linux community will absolutely hate the XBox 360 XP, even though it really isn't all that bad, if you know how to secure it, which is a serious pain in the ass.

7. XBox 360 Vista- This version will totally rip-off all other 3rd Generation consoles, and is the whole reason they have the tiered release plan anyway...

An Idea!

[10Ghz]

Instead of offering the console in several different versions, why not let the people customize it by themselves? Want a HD with the console? Buy one and add it in! Want better optical-drive? Replace the one that came with the system with a better one! The user could also add better CPU and more RAM to the system.

Since these consoles would be more personal than the identical model they have sold in the past, we need a new name for these consoles. I suggest a "Personal Console", or "PC" for short.

Re:Relax, 360 will most likely include hard drive

[Babbster]

The 360 will almost certainly include the hard drive at launch.

You ALMOST have it right in that the 360 will CERTAINLY include the hard drive at launch. It's been confirmed. I'm wondering how many times Allard and company have to confirm it before people accept it.

People seem to have been so brainwashed by the speculation (not hype by MS, but wild-ass guesses by "industry analysts) over the last two years that nothing can get through the mental blocks anymore.

Allard's comments about potentially shipping an Xbox 360 sans HD are for the future, going after people who wait for price breaks and a more full game catalog before buying (like me, as a matter of fact). Hence, he wants developers to code for the possibility that a hard drive won't be on the system. That means that they have to optimize save files so that memory cards can be used (none of that "take a snapshot of memory" nonsense as Bioware did with Knights of the Old Republic). It means that they may have to include an if/then statement regarding hard drive caching and make sure that their game runs acceptably with nothing but the optical drive. What it DOESN'T mean is that the Xbox 360 is coming out with no hard drive, nor does it mean that developers have to release multiple versions of their games for compatibility purposes.

The worst-case scenario is that a few early games may absolutely require the hard drive to run. Of course, early adopters will [interestingly] not have any worries about this since they will already have the hard drive, and the hard drives will be available to anyone who wants one. This isn't an N64 situation where extra memory was required for some games and it wasn't included with the console - that's at least certain at the beginning, and possibly (Allard was trying not to rule anything out) for the life of the device.

Most of the above, by the way, wasn't aimed at the parent but to the doomsayers elsewhere in this discussion.