Online Gambling Running Out of Steam

dreamchaser writes "After a meteoric rise, online gambling companies appear to be taking a beating now with the loss of 33% in PartyGaming stock. Apparently the novelty is wearing off and no new players can be found. Why have you stopped playing?"

Comments

Lack of Suckers

[ackthpt]

With all the poker-bots and it being morally indefensible to allow suckers to keep their money, it stands to reason there is only a finite number of suckers, and even if there's a new one every minute, it takes suckers longer than a handfull of minutes to scrape togther enough money to get taken to the cleaners often enough to prop up such an industry.

My money's on the really big gambling:

• What I bought on eBay is what I actually get
• Living on top of a fault line
• Hope against evidence that the price of gas will actually go down with the increase in available crude (actual crude price increase in past year 66%, gasoline price increase over same period 132%, source BBC)
• One day my comic book collection may approach in sticker price value
• My donation to Katrina relief won't go into some fat-cat's pocket.

Besides, with the price of gas being so high who has money left to gamble?

Re:Lack of Suckers

[GPLDAN]

How many people need to tell you what is happening before you catch on? Unlike the poor, uneducated masses that line the slot machines at many casinos, once a rat is seen online - people leave in droves. Information moves at the speed of light, and online casinos can turn from full to empty in minutes, not days. Nobody goes on benders or tilt online.

Wired splits the fucking scam right down the middle in their expose.

Re:Lack of Suckers

[covertbadger]

With all the poker-bots and it being morally indefensible to allow suckers to keep their money, it stands to reason there is only a finite number of suckers, and even if there's a new one every minute, it takes suckers longer than a handfull of minutes to scrape togther enough money to get taken to the cleaners often enough to prop up such an industry.

I still don't understand why online poker is so damn popular - any game where the odds can be calculated with any degree of accuracy is ideal fodder for bots, which can patiently calculate hands until the heat death of the universe. Unfortunately US gambling laws prevent Americans from using sports betting sites like http://www.betfair.com/, which matches up bets between users, and though there are plenty of bots there they can't fleece people like poker bots because it's impossible to work out accurate odds for, say, Liverpool coming back from 3-0 down at half time to win the Champion's League.

Re:Lack of Suckers

[TexVex]

As someone who has been playing online poker since 2002, I can tell you firsthand that Wired's article paints a stark picture that makes things seem worse than they actually are. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that online poker completely lacks bots and cheats. Cheating is a problem with practically all sports and games. People do collude at "brick and mortar" poker tables as well.

Just like card rooms and casinos strive to make their games safe, so do online card rooms strive to detect and eliminate the bots. Their efforts include analysis (some automated, some done by real people) of people's play to find evidence of cheating. They punish the cheaters and do what they can to make reparations to the victims.

There are also problems with credit card fraud in online poker. Someone makes a huge deposit at an online card room, then passes chips to a partner in a high stakes heads up game. Partner cashes out. Original depositor defrauds credit institution by claiming identity theft, and the bank is stuck in a sticky spot. That problem has caused so much trouble that many big banks refuse to allow many kinds of transfers of funds to gaming sites.

I quit dealing with Party Poker over two years ago, because I thought their policies were too invasive of privacy and too restrictive on some simple issues. I have since played PokerStars and UltimateBet, and most recently Full Tilt. I haven't noticed any shrinkage in recent months. PokerStars is the biggest of those three; they have weekly $215 buy-in tournaments that continuously seat 3,500 players or more (yes, the total prize pool always exceeds their $150,000 guaranteed minimum). Their annual World Championship of Online Poker, just getting started for this year, is already breaking all of the records it itself set last year.

Also, in the non-online poker world, the World Series of Poker Main Event was nearly three times as large this year as it was last year; they had to break the first day of play up over three days, having 1/3 of the field play their first day each day. Only after that was the field small enough that they could fit everyone in the convention center used for the tournament at the same time.

All indications point towards poker still growing, and online poker is at least stable. Maybe if Party Gaming stock is losing value, it's for some other reason. If they are actually losign players, then maybe it's because their players are moving elsewhere.

Re:Lack of Suckers

[Pulzar]

still don't understand why online poker is so damn popular - any game where the odds can be calculated with any degree of accuracy is ideal fodder for bots, which can patiently calculate hands until the heat death of the universe.

That's such a minor thing in poker that it really doesn't make a difference. A good player can estimate the odds and probabilities in a few seconds close enough to matter for most hands, and within a minute or so in others. It's actually putting a percentage next to possible hands for the opponent that the bot can't do well at all, and will therefor always lose to a good human player. In no-limit games against good players that's much more true than in limit games against a mediocre crowd, mind you, since big blunders will cost the bot less, and "statistically correct" plays will win more often than not in a large group of average players.

Re:Lack of Suckers

[grumpygrodyguy]

Funny thing is, Exxon Mobil just published their biggest profit EVER.

I'm much more amazed that people are surprized by this considering who's running this country.

Re:Lack of Suckers

[covertbadger]

You're right, but then if I was running a poker bot I wouldn't let it anywhere near the high stakes games with good players. I'd have it roaming the small-fry tables with casual players, and clean up on the margins. Even if it only makes a few percent profit by playing conservatively, if I run it 24hrs a day it'll soon add up, at the direct expense of the 'average' players.

Poker Poker Everywhere...

[Nerd Systems]

Online Poker was a cool fad when it came out, but they are right, it is beginning to lost it's steam. A big factor that also comes into play is the television coverage that poker tournaments have these days. Who wants to sit on a computer and play games, when you can go and play them for real?

Here in Houston, we have so many bars and lounges that host poker tournaments and the like, some of which have some very nice prizes for the winners, almost making the online world seem nowhere near as fun or productive. I am sure that everyone can explain to you what Texas Hold'em is by this time...

Looks like they need to find another fad to promote to the online community... and pray that TV doesn't steal the show once again...

Maybe it's just this company

[gbulmash]

While Party-Gaming is having difficulties with retention and yield, it is quite possible that this is due to growing competition.

For example, while PartyPoker is well known, PokerStars seems to be coming up fast. They advertise heavily on poker shows, moreso than PartyPoker it seems. Additionally, a visit to both sites generated a pop-up at PartyPoker on the opening page (yes, let's annoy potential clients), but not at PokerStars. I haven't tried the PartyPoker software in quite some time, but when it came time to choose I found PokerStars a more pleasant interface in which to waste time on play money games.

BUT, and this is very important, poker has been enjoying a popularity surge lately, especially Texas Hold-em. The number of poker shows on TV (even cable) a decade ago could have been counted on the fingers of one knee. Maybe there'd be something late night on ESPN 2, sandwiched in between Powder Puff BMX and Curling. Now you have poker shows on Travel channel, Bravo, InHD, and more. It's quite possible that, gasp, poker is a fad, and as more and more people realize they really suck at it, the fad is receding. Perhaps the money is going back to sports betting, going back to more traditional casino gaming (blackjack, roulette), or perhaps it's going to pay for $3 a gallon gasoline.

I definitely wouldn't take this article as an indicator of industry troubles as a whole, but it would be useful as a warning to watch for shifts in consumer gaming patterns across the industry.

Because gambling is ...

[waynegoode]

Perhaps people finally realized that gambling is a tax on greed and poor math skills.

Re:Because gambling is ...

[ranton]

You didnt understand what the GP post meant regarding the skill involved in Poker. Poker is different from most gambling because you are not playing against the dealer, you are playing against the other players. In almost any form of gambling you will eventually lose money because the odds are set by the casino. But the only thing you have to beat in online poker is the rake.

If you can win more money from your opponents than the casinos rakes in on each hand, then you WILL make money at poker. There are plenty of people who make a living off of poker. I know of two friends who are paying their way through college with online poker (one still gets over half of the money from student loans). I dont make that much money, but I havent ever had a stretch of more than a couple days where I havent increased my money online.

You CAN make money from playing poker, it is not gambling in the sense that you can beat the system in poker. You just have to have some skill, and a bank roll big enough to absorb losses from a few bad beats.

One Reason

[tktk]

Why have you stopped playing?

Maybe because the regular players have gone broke?

Re:One Reason

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Poor married grad student? man you do like to gamble.

I never started playing.

[faedle]

For starters, part of the "gambling experience" for me is physically going to a noisy, crowded casino and taking in the atmosphere. It's like going to an amusement park: the ride just isn't fun unless you're strapped to the seat.

Plus, at home, I don't get scantily-clad babes serving me free drinks, and the infrequent comp from the casino host isn't a bad thing either.

Online gambling appeals to the pros, perhaps. Which is exactly why I don't want to play there. I'd rather be taken by the house at Blackjack in Vegas.. at least there I get to sit in a pretty building.

I Only Gamble Inside Casinos

[GecKo213]

There's just a different feeling going to a Casino vs gambling at home. All of the drinks are free (As in Beer, lots of beer!) and so ar the Cigars if you gamble long enough. Besides, online gambling to me at least has the Shady, can I really win at this because who's governing a small island in the pacific's website to make sure I even have a chance, vybe. Gambling inside casinos is the only place I want to Gamble. Besides, it woudl be too easy to get COmpletely addicted if I could plug in to the Internet and gamble my life away.

Gambling down?

[Anonymous Coward]

Trust.

That's why it's down. I'm not talking about trusting your online casino of choice, or trusting that you will receive your money from your payment processor. I'm talking about trusting your fellow players.

The big money in online poker isn't from reading a book and playing off of statistics charts and pot odds. It's not in learning to read into your counterparts bets. It's in cheating.

Not the hack-the-server-to-see-everyone's-cards cheating, or reverse engineering their randomization algorithms. It's in playing 6 players on a 10-hand table and having everyone know what everyone else has.

The odds on your pocket jacks suddenly go way down once you know one of your other players has a jack. Also, you are able to control the table much more effectively with many people acting as one. Joe-sixpack might call you for $10 with his board pair, but he is much less likely if it's going to cost him $40. Also, when you know you have the winning cards, you can milk the rest of the players by raising once around the table and raising after your targets have called.

The game is entirely different and there are numerous other rulesets and strategies you can employ when you have more knowledge about the cards on the table than other people.

Sure, a "good" poker player can beat a bot or a statistical player any day of the week. However, the best player out there can't beat an entire table sharing information and playing for the same goal. Yes, the online casinos try and detect this collusion and generally the worst they do is ban players from playing together at the same table. I'm sure many Slashdoters can figure out how you get around any type of detection the casinos can through out.

I know I did.

SPYWARE

[paradizelost]

I never have done online gambling. I have had to fix HUNDREDS of pc's where the morons on the pc's did and had lots of spyware. Many of these took format/reload to completely fixed. the average bill for the systems that weren't formatted was about $120.

Maybe it's the Robots?

[dshaw858]

Apparently the novelty is wearing off and no new players can be found. Why have you stopped playing?

There was a story, what, a week ago(?) about how people are writing scripts and programs to play these online poker sites for real money, against real people... maybe people are just getting tired of getting owned by a small executable? I don't know, maybe not, but I'm sure that has something to do with it.

Oh, and school's starting up, so wannabe-pro college students don't have enough time anymore to play poker all day. Again, just speculation.

- dshaw

Trust, Trend and Truth

[curtisk]

Trust: it's not only whether or not you can trust the site/service that hosts the games, but you also have to trust ALOT of anonymous players. At any given table, any number of players can be communicating their hands to each other, tilting the pot and the stakes heavily in their favor. Sure, there's some software out there that tries to catch those scenarios, based on the action and betting patterns, but it can't possibly catch half of it.

Trend: Poker in particular is very trendy, and like all trends, it will pass, some will stay, but most will go.

Truth: At some point you will realize that you are not the next incarnation of Chris Moneymaker and never will be. No easy path for you to riches and fame. If you really love playing, you'll probably stick it out over the long term and may "make it" at some point, but most people today want the quick fix and lose interest if their fortunes don't come quick enough. That and the realization that it takes ALOT of time of your day if you are attempting to be "profitable" playing online. Again, think its an easy fix, then reality and truth set in.

And if you play "play money" games and freeroll tourneys, LOL, thats not real on so many levels.

I stopped playing because...

[craXORjack]

My pokerbot started stinking up the house smoking those big stoagies, staying up for days at a time, using my credit cards on porn sites, having hookers come to the house, and drinking up all my liquor. Things just got out of hand.

Who stopped playing?

[UM_Maverick]

Sure, Party Poker's revenue is down, but they still get 40,000+ players at a time. There's gotta be another 50 sites out there, too - none of them are as big as party, but they're out there. Ultimatebet, Pokerroom.com, Paradise Poker, Pacific Poker, Interpoker, etc, etc, etc...

People talk a lot about bots, but if they're out there, they suck. I play up to 2/4 limit Hold 'em, and 1-2 NL Hold 'em, as well as Omaha hi/lo, and I'm a consistent winner (I track every session I play). I play 6-8 hours a week, usually while the wife is watching dawson's creek, or some other equally girly dvd. We get to sit together, each doing something we enjoy, and I clear anywhere from $400 - $800 a month.

In short: people still play, decent players win, and (from what I've read), the bots are really, really bad.

Stock Market

[theNote]

This is the problem with companies going public that shouldn't.
The stock market is all about growth, not profit.
Have a compay that makes 100 billion trillion dollars a year?
Great, but next year you will have to make 200 billion trillion or else your stock will tank. Its not just about being profitable, stock is all about growth. If not you better pay one hell of a dividend.

Not enough serious pro players

[tepp]

Because most people play poker for the social aspects. Yes, there are "pro" poker players who play to win, but most guys are just playing it to have fun with their friends, while talking shop over a cold beer, with a bowl of chips and dip at hand, and the wives out of sight for a few hours. The winner walks away with maybe 40$ at the end of the night, but has to host the next poker party... and thus the cycle continues.

Most people don't want to play poker for high stakes - they don't have the money to stay in the very high games, and they don't really want to loose it all in one game. They just want to play for the fun of it, and doing it with little drawn cartoon avatars isn't nearly as entertaining as doing it with your best buds.

Once the novelty wore off, those who actually want to play online poker are very few....

I've been playing 2 years

[ctwxman]

I deposited $250 at Pokerstars in August 2003. I play nearly every day. My wife does as well. We don't have a fortune or even a small fortune... but we still have our $250 and a profit. During these two years Pokerstars has made thousands off our playing, but not from us. Our secret is only playing in small sit 'n go tournaments. It is very easy for the casinos to keep track of collusion in these. Because you need money in the bank, it is not easy to quickly change names, so players who play too many of these together stick out like a sore thumb. All the games I've played online have made me a much better player at brick and mortar casinos. I've played tens of thousands of hands at Pokerstars - a lifetime of hands - in two years. When I'm playing live, it's as if I can see through the other player's cards.

Because...

[Greyfox]

I can go to a nearby casino, buy in to a tournament for $30 or $40 and play for long enough to get comped for some food and drink and meet some hot poker babes. Or I can go to a free bar tournament within a few miles from my house almsot any night of the week, play some cards, have a beer and meet some hot poker babes. There are some good looking women playing this game! And unlike the Internet, most of them won't turn out to have a penis!

I could see possibly playing a $5 tournament or two online on a down night, but for the most part I'd really rather go hang out with real human beings. And as an added bonus, when you play an offline tournament you don't have to deal with the prepubescent dweebies that seem to hang out on the online poker rooms.

Re:No Lack of Suckers

[Rirath.com]

If you're going to mention AOL and n00bs, you may want to avoid the use of "ppl".

people. It's three more characters, saving a mere 9 keystrokes out of the nearly 400 you already used to type that post.