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Xbox 360 Launch To Be Gradual
Gamasutra is reporting that low volume of 360 consoles will result in a somewhat gradual ramp up for the launch. From the article: "'The analysts were expecting more of a launch spike than we were... [we expect a] more gradual ramp toward' meeting revenue targets, presumably due to a lower volume of available Xbox 360 consoles than some analysts were previously estimating, and perhaps indicating there may be more severe Xbox 360 shortages than some have predicted this holiday season."
It kind of makes sense... especially since reverse compatibility may not be absolute for the 360, people will probably want to see how the 360 actually is, anyway.
- dshaw
This is no surprise. Microsoft is trying to launch in 3 territories nearly simultaneously. It is to be expected.
You got the touch!
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Everybody always speculates that there will be shortages for an upcoming console launch and it rarely ever happens. So just... cut it out, for cripe's sake.
Video game manufacturers announcing possible shortages of their new-fangled system on launch is nothing more than a marketing ploy. The rule these days, not the exception.
I'm not scared by the shortage of 'three-sixty'. But a lot more by the shortage of launch titles. Not one seems gold 3 weeks from launch. And no editor dared to commit itself to having a game on the shelves for october 22.
And I'm sure you can find more affordable DVD player than this rushed out console.
The difference with the PS2 was that people actually wanted a PS2.
I may be wrong, but I just don't see the demand for a Xbox 360 at launch as high as the demand for a PS2 at launch, so I find it hard to believe that there's going to be a massive shortage.
This isn't meant to be a ding against Microsoft; I have an Xbox and thoroughly enjoy it. And the same thing happened to Sony's PSP—lots of hype about shortages that never happened because the demand just wasn't there.
And personally, I resent these shortages. I think that a lot of times, they're foreseeable, and yes, the companies do it deliberately so that they can proudly proclaim that their systems sold out with people begging for more.
I just think that Microsoft is going to be sadly disappointed in this case because 1) it's too soon after the Xbox and PS2 launches to introduce a new game console, and 2) nothing about it is very revolutionary that will make people have to have one.
Oh well, like I said, maybe I'm wrong. I guess we'll see!
perhaps MSGames? :)
I think Sony got it right with their release of the PSP outside the holiday season. They were able to meet the demand of the early adopters and had time to build up inventories for the holidays this year.
I've always wondered why these console manufacturers wait until Christmas to release only a trickle of hardware into the channel. This stifles profit growth, as we all know they make their money on games vs. the hardware.
Wouldn't it make more sense to release off season, satisfy the early adopter purchases, then build up inventory for the holidays while reaping the profits from game sales along the way?
Maybe I'm just crazy.
www.lonseidman.com
Gradual Ramp = Artificial Controlled shortage
Artificial controlled shortage = Perceived shortage
Perceived Shortage = Everyone rushing to get one or else they will have to wait and then explain to little Johnny why he doesn't get an XBox360 for Christmas
Everyone rushing = Sell out of consoles at launch
Sell out of consoles = Major headlines
Major headlines = More free marketing for Microsoft showing the XBox360 as The Next Big Thing(tm)
Saw on TV that XBox360 is The Next Big Thing(tm) = People believe that XBox360 is The Next Big Thing(tm)
XBox360 = The Next Big Thing(tm)
Things you think are in the Constitution, but are not.
I was mildly irritated with Nintendo's information release rate prior, but the steady stream of irrelevant 'information' from Microsoft is much worse.
I payed for my PS2 when it first came out by buying PS2s on my credit card and then selling them on eBay. Made enough profit to buy one for myself plus some gifts for friends. I had decided not to do it for the 360, since a few months back MS was saying they'd have huge quantities available, and because I don't know ANYONE who wants a 360. Figured the demand wasn't there. Looks like I was wrong at least on the supply part. Should've got a few preorders in early while I still had the chance. After all, if I was wrong and there was no shortage I always would have been able to sell them on eBay with minimal loss.
If there is one person in a company that has no sense of humor and never makes any statements that aren't provably true, it's the CFO.
Something terribly wrong must be going on with the 360 if the CFO is making such a dramatic statement about the system.
I've been reading reactions to the system all over the net and I think there might be huge numbers of pre-order cancellations from people who have seen or read about the 360's public showing at stores. I really have never seen such strongly negative reaction to a next gen machine as people are with the 360. It's not just one or two games, it's all of the games that are being show are reported to look very bad. The amount of ill will and at best indifference is unprecedented for a new console. And I've never seen a console launch have so many PR disasters. It just doesn't seem to stop with the 360 and the Xbox team.
Despite what many people like to think about Microsoft and the amount of money they are willing to throw at the Xbox, Microsoft has just barely been hitting targets each quarter, and one missed quarter, over the past year and a half. The 360 doing as badly as the first Xbox will have huge ramifications to their revenue/profitability/stock price. Wallstreet is watching the 360 release very closely.
I would not be surprised if things don't turn around quickly for the 360 by early next year that they will take the dramatic step of pulling the plug on the project. The days of riding out losses from the Xbox's division are long over. The 360 was supposed to be the one that they got right and the Xbox team's second and last chance.
I have seen signs that Microsoft is already putting things in place for a possible plan where the 360 hardware is killed off and the Xbox online service and development tools are used to attempt to turn pc gaming into a revenue stream like the console market. But with the mood at Microsoft these days just killing the whole project off and moving on to more promising areas of revenue growth is most likely.
A friend of mine works for a popular game company as a graphic artists. I asked him, "are you goign to get a 360" he replied "not any time soon". He was thouroughly undewhelmed by the 360. The company has received several Dev kits. He'll get it for Halo 3 but has few other reasons to get one, explaining it's like a 6 month video card upgrade on a xbox and very little more.
"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."
(first off, I work in video game retail)
From what I've seen, most of the intrest in this console has been from the non-hardcore. Anyone who has acually taken the time to look into this knows that the initial line-up of games is nothing worth buying a system for (hell, the playable demos on the kiosks are a joke).
Usually, it's the oposite, with the hardcore gamers wanting the system right away and the more casual folks and parents sitting back and seeing how it goes.
Personaly, I've been telling people not to buy one this season, but to wait untill the PS3 comes out and the 360 gets some worthwhile games.
I'll stop being cynical when the world allows
if my preordered xbox360 is damaged and i won't get a replacement immediately or at max before christmas, i think i'm gonna kill someone