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MMORPG Evolution
1up.com has a piece looking at how Massively Multiplayer Online Games have evolved from the days of UO and Meridian 59. From the article: "As far as the genre has come, though, MMO gaming has still only barely grown out of its infancy. Blizzard crows that 4 million users globally are hooked to World of WarCraft-but that leaves 6-billion-plus people on Earth yet to be reached. Are MMOs doomed to continue fishing from the same pond of players over and over? Major publishers are asking themselves that very question right now. So are we. Developers must do six very real things to make MMO games reach out to even more people: rethink monthly fees, manage in-game economies in new ways, explore new worlds and themes, use new technology to change the way people access games, weigh the balance between structured storytelling and open worlds, and foster a better sense of community among players."
This article sets up an absolutely ludicrous comparison - "yeah, sure, you're four times bigger than any other MMO EVER but you don't have the rest of Earth's population yet! So you SUCK!"
I think that WoW proves quite clearly that there's plenty of players to tap and that the market is in its infancy. All you have to do is play the right cards, something WoW has done/is doing quite effectively.
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The argument about MMORPGs all drawing from the same pool of customers and simply trading them around in accordance with the latest fads is, and has been known to be for some time, complete and utter rubbish.
MMORPGs are the fastest growing genre around, from what I can see. Go back a couple of years and you've basically got UO and Everquest with about 400,000 players each, and a couple of others, like Anarchy Online, hovering at their heels with 200,000 players max. These days, You've got World of Warcraft with millions, Final Fantasy XI with a significant fraction of a million, Everquest and Everquest II both with 400,000 plus players, City of Heroes with a good few hundred thousand and Guild Wars (which arguably doesn't count due to the lack of a subscription model) with loads as well. This is before you even move onto the dozens and dozens of smaller MMORPGs, such as Galaxies, Eve Online, Matrix Online, Planetside, Dark Ages of Camelot, etc, etc, etc. In short, there are both more and bigger MMORPGs.
I think what you've really seen over the last few years, particularly with franchise MMORPGs (WoW, FFXI, Galaxies etc) or niche MMORPGs (Planetside, Sims Online, Eve etc) is new players being brought to the genre through bridges from elsewhere. Want to hazard a guess at how many people play World of Warcraft because either of the Warcraft connection, or the Diablo/Blizzard connection? I've not seen any figures, but I'd guess it's a significant part of the player base. Galaxies was, by all accounts, a pretty appaling MMORPG when it was launched, but it was reasonably successful due to the franchise drawing in fans of other SW games and has survived long enough to develop into something worth playing.
I suspect that over the next few years we'll see other genres moving into the MMO world. We've already seen Planetside have a stab at a MMOFPS and although it's not been a wild success, it's done some important and useful proof of concept work. I suspect that RTSes and, in particular, Sports Games will be the next to go MMO in a big way. You could almost argue - although it might be pushing things a little - that the online career options in Forza (popular X-Box racing game, a la Gran Turismo) already have most of the elements of a MMOG.
... they were called MUDs.
Let's not forget our roots!
Developers must do six very real things to make MMO games reach out to even more people:
rethink monthly fees
I think the game should be handed out for free (or minimal charge of $9.99 for shipping you a live copy). That's the main gripe I hear from a lot of players and friends: that we need to pay to get the game AND pay each month. Of course, after a year, you forget that you even paid for the game...
manage in-game economies in new ways
I think WoW is doing just fine with that. So far it's not like Everquest where within a year you were pretty much useless unless you had platinum pieces.
explore new worlds and themes
Isn't that what City of Heros/Villans does? WoW? Final Fantasy? Star Wars? Sims Online? WTF do you want, a Dukes of Hazzard MMORPG?
use new technology to change the way people access games
Until someone invents new technology for ALL of us, you're just gonna have to use a computer and an internet connection to play. Duh. This statement, to me, is pointless.
weigh the balance between structured storytelling and open worlds
Call me crazy, but I think WoW does a fine job of this.
and foster a better sense of community among players
Humans are humans, and when they get into an online world, they act stupid. There's little accountability for their actions. Again, I think WoW has done a good job of controlling camping (though ninja looting can be a problem, but that's the fault of the player), providing instanced raids for mass amounts of people, faction vs. faction battle, etc. Not sure what the other games are doing, but I think this evolution is happening.
From reading the summary and glancing at the article, am I the only one here wondering if these people have even PLAYED an MMORPG recently?
I believe monthly fees (or, at least, high fees like WoW's) are going to be the main stumbling block for the developing MMORPG market. If people are going to be paying for a game five times over in a single year, they're going to buy fewer games. Right now, I play WoW and it's the *only* thing I play because I want to get my money's worth out of it. Not many people will want to pay for three of four MMORPGs at $15/mo because the fees will simply be too high.
Unless monthly fees are drastically reduced to a reasonable level -- say, $2/month (especially if you have to drop $50 up front) -- there will simply be less of a market for more than a handful of MMORPGs. There are not 6 billion more people ready and waiting for new MMORPGs to hit the market.
Reasonable pricing models will ensure everyone gets a piece of the pie. Obscene pricing models will guarantee one or two major games will dominate the market. I don't know about you, but I would prefer more variety in my online gaming.
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For me, an accessible console rendition would get me to try one. Sitting in a chair for that many hours isn't something I'll trade my single player experience for. And no, FFXI on the 360 doesn't count...I would want something closer to Guild Wars, City of Heroes or WOW.
Way back, when the dinosaurs still roamed the earth, I used to play muds religiously - Sanctuary, Armageddon, 3K, I loved them all. Lucky for me, my roommate failed out of college due to mudding, which caused me to take a hard long look at my life and come to the realization that while I wasn't failing, muds were certainly keeping me from excelling. I dropped them cold turkey, which was probably one of the best things I've ever done. I've always followed the MMORPG scene quite closely and have always wanted to get back into it (especially since I had a number of friends who played Everquest). Finally when WoW came out, I decided that I was at a good place in my life and career and, after a long talk with my wife, I bought the game. At first it was great - the quests didn't take too long, I could play an hour or two a night without any problems, and I had a great time. Unfortunately, I quickly got to a point that if I wanted to accomplish anything at all in the game, I'd have to sit down for a solid three to five hour stretch (sometimes for several days in a row depending on the raid dungeon). That simply isn't practical. Additionally, while I enjoyed the social element, you simply can't walk away at any time - to an extent the game dictates when you can quit. I finally quit WoW when it became clear that I'd never see the new content that was being released as all of it was catered to the hard core player.
Is it possible to appeal to the casual player? I believe so. For example in Guildwars, you can hire henchmen which allow you to play by yourself when needed and still progress in the game. The MMOs out there demand that I work my schedule around them; instead I need the games to work around mine.
Are MMOs doomed to continue fishing from the same pond of players over and over?
While World of Warcraft did take some players away from other MMOs it's success is also due to the fact that it significantly increased the number of MMO players. It made MMOs far more accessible, especially to casual players. In short, it grew that "pond". There is no reason to think that the pond cannot grow some more, it is just a matter of someone introducing something that non-MMO'ers would find a fun use of their time.
But you have to ask yourself: how big do we need MMOGs to get? The movie Titanic broke box office records, but it was a steaming pile of shit.
Wow has set the bar, and as far as I'm concerned, it's a good bar. It's a healthy bar. 4 million is a damn healthy bar. If you want to go more mass-market than that, you have to go into areas that don't appeal to me as a MMOG player.
At some point, you have to say, "We're making enough money to satisfy our art", and leave it at that.
I don't think I want to see the MMOG that attracts 1 billion subscribers.
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