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MMORPG Evolution

1up.com has a piece looking at how Massively Multiplayer Online Games have evolved from the days of UO and Meridian 59. From the article: "As far as the genre has come, though, MMO gaming has still only barely grown out of its infancy. Blizzard crows that 4 million users globally are hooked to World of WarCraft-but that leaves 6-billion-plus people on Earth yet to be reached. Are MMOs doomed to continue fishing from the same pond of players over and over? Major publishers are asking themselves that very question right now. So are we. Developers must do six very real things to make MMO games reach out to even more people: rethink monthly fees, manage in-game economies in new ways, explore new worlds and themes, use new technology to change the way people access games, weigh the balance between structured storytelling and open worlds, and foster a better sense of community among players."

20 of 81 comments (clear)

  1. Eh? by Southpaw018 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This article sets up an absolutely ludicrous comparison - "yeah, sure, you're four times bigger than any other MMO EVER but you don't have the rest of Earth's population yet! So you SUCK!"

    I think that WoW proves quite clearly that there's plenty of players to tap and that the market is in its infancy. All you have to do is play the right cards, something WoW has done/is doing quite effectively.

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  2. Absolute rubbish by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The argument about MMORPGs all drawing from the same pool of customers and simply trading them around in accordance with the latest fads is, and has been known to be for some time, complete and utter rubbish.

    MMORPGs are the fastest growing genre around, from what I can see. Go back a couple of years and you've basically got UO and Everquest with about 400,000 players each, and a couple of others, like Anarchy Online, hovering at their heels with 200,000 players max. These days, You've got World of Warcraft with millions, Final Fantasy XI with a significant fraction of a million, Everquest and Everquest II both with 400,000 plus players, City of Heroes with a good few hundred thousand and Guild Wars (which arguably doesn't count due to the lack of a subscription model) with loads as well. This is before you even move onto the dozens and dozens of smaller MMORPGs, such as Galaxies, Eve Online, Matrix Online, Planetside, Dark Ages of Camelot, etc, etc, etc. In short, there are both more and bigger MMORPGs.

    I think what you've really seen over the last few years, particularly with franchise MMORPGs (WoW, FFXI, Galaxies etc) or niche MMORPGs (Planetside, Sims Online, Eve etc) is new players being brought to the genre through bridges from elsewhere. Want to hazard a guess at how many people play World of Warcraft because either of the Warcraft connection, or the Diablo/Blizzard connection? I've not seen any figures, but I'd guess it's a significant part of the player base. Galaxies was, by all accounts, a pretty appaling MMORPG when it was launched, but it was reasonably successful due to the franchise drawing in fans of other SW games and has survived long enough to develop into something worth playing.

    I suspect that over the next few years we'll see other genres moving into the MMO world. We've already seen Planetside have a stab at a MMOFPS and although it's not been a wild success, it's done some important and useful proof of concept work. I suspect that RTSes and, in particular, Sports Games will be the next to go MMO in a big way. You could almost argue - although it might be pushing things a little - that the online career options in Forza (popular X-Box racing game, a la Gran Turismo) already have most of the elements of a MMOG.

    1. Re:Absolute rubbish by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      As a fairly hardcore FFXI player who's been playing for over 2 years, I can tell you now that servers are busier than ever. There was a dip when WoW came out, but it swiftly ended, as most players who left FFXI for WoW came right back. WoW's gameplay and depth just aren't sufficient to keep somebody who's used to a more traditional MMORPG occupied for long. Blizzard have done a superb job at making a game that's accessible to new players, but the majority of those who are used to other MMORPGs have shunned it. Note that this is actually a good thing for the industry in general.

      Japanese players are not a "vast majority". Best estimates from regular players would be a 40/40/20 split, between Japan, the US and Europe (where a vastly delayed release meant the game got more or less ignored).

      I think your comments about the Chains of Promathia expansion really sum up just how shallow your knowledge is. There was indeed some initial disappointment from CoP, largely from the people who had convinced themselves (despite the complete absence of any evidence) that there would be new jobs included. However, people soon realised that what CoP really added was a strictly player-skill based element to the game. By adding extremely difficult missions to the game, often capped at a relatively low level, Square Enix forced veteran players to learn new styles and assess how they'd been playing the game. Similarly, new players with a talent for the game but without the time to have reached the top levels, were given an opportunity to be among the first to achieve new things, which is always a rare chance in a MMORPG. World of Warcraft has, at present, nothing to match this.

    2. Re:Absolute rubbish by Sandman1971 · · Score: 3, Informative

      Want to hazard a guess at how many people play World of Warcraft because either of the Warcraft connection, or the Diablo/Blizzard connection? I've not seen any figures, but I'd guess it's a significant part of the player base. Speaking from personal experience only, it appears that the number is about 60%. Speaking with my guildmates and people on the various servers I play on, it appears that 6/10 people who are playing WoW never played an MMORPG before WoW. And out of those 60%, most have tried WoW due to having played previous Blizzard games such as Warcraft, Starcraft or Diablo. Again, from past experience, it also appears that most MMORPG players play only one MMORPG at a time. Rare are the people who are, for example, playing and paying for WoW and Everquest at the same time. So as the number of total MMORPG subscriptions rises, there's very little 'double dipping', where one person is paying for more than one subscription. This would indicate, at least from my personal view, that it would indicate the number of players is increasing. So I'm absolutely backing up your statement that "The argument about MMORPGs all drawing from the same pool of customers and simply trading them around in accordance with the latest fads is, and has been known to be for some time, complete and utter rubbish."

      --
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    3. Re:Absolute rubbish by Mr.+Ghost · · Score: 2, Interesting
      The argument about MMORPGs all drawing from the same pool of customers and simply trading them around in accordance with the latest fads is, and has been known to be for some time, complete and utter rubbish.

      It's not complete rubbish as I know that many of the players of these games are signed up for multiple games. I personally only play Guild Wars as I don't like the monthly subscriptions, but I have two friends who plays WOW, SWG, UO, CoF and Guild Wars and two other friends who play 3 of those (WOW, CoF, GW) and another frind who plays EQ and GW.

      So the total pool is definitely larger than the largest MMORPG but it is definitely not the total of all of them. I would probably venture a to say (without any stats to back it up) that 30%-40% of players play multiple MMORPGs if they play any at all.

  3. I liked them better when... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ... they were called MUDs.

    Let's not forget our roots!

  4. Current MMORPGs are doing just fine by macrom · · Score: 5, Informative

    Developers must do six very real things to make MMO games reach out to even more people:

    rethink monthly fees

    I think the game should be handed out for free (or minimal charge of $9.99 for shipping you a live copy). That's the main gripe I hear from a lot of players and friends: that we need to pay to get the game AND pay each month. Of course, after a year, you forget that you even paid for the game...

    manage in-game economies in new ways

    I think WoW is doing just fine with that. So far it's not like Everquest where within a year you were pretty much useless unless you had platinum pieces.

    explore new worlds and themes

    Isn't that what City of Heros/Villans does? WoW? Final Fantasy? Star Wars? Sims Online? WTF do you want, a Dukes of Hazzard MMORPG?

    use new technology to change the way people access games

    Until someone invents new technology for ALL of us, you're just gonna have to use a computer and an internet connection to play. Duh. This statement, to me, is pointless.

    weigh the balance between structured storytelling and open worlds

    Call me crazy, but I think WoW does a fine job of this.

    and foster a better sense of community among players

    Humans are humans, and when they get into an online world, they act stupid. There's little accountability for their actions. Again, I think WoW has done a good job of controlling camping (though ninja looting can be a problem, but that's the fault of the player), providing instanced raids for mass amounts of people, faction vs. faction battle, etc. Not sure what the other games are doing, but I think this evolution is happening.

    From reading the summary and glancing at the article, am I the only one here wondering if these people have even PLAYED an MMORPG recently?

    1. Re:Current MMORPGs are doing just fine by Krater76 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      weigh the balance between structured storytelling and open worlds

      Call me crazy, but I think WoW does a fine job of this.


      Wow does an a acceptable job of this but I think there's a subcontext to that small sentence. The continents are used up, there's no open space. No player housing or even just guild housing.

      A guildy brought up how cool it would be for the large guilds with sufficient in-game cash to be able to create a guild house. Maybe have a flag or something that other guilds could try to 'steal'. Be able to buy guards and merchants for the guild house. Have an actual guild bank, not just an extra character that gets mailed stuff. But that isn't going to happen because, of course, they never intendid it to and that even if they wanted to do it it's not like you can just plunk down a guild house in the middle of the Barrens or Duskwood.

      Even as much as I like WoW, you can go on to the forums and see people asking for some pretty standard stuff that is included in other games. I'm still holding out for a global 'looking for group' channel.

      --
      "Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery?" - Patrick Henry
  5. Monthly Fees by Digital+Vomit · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Developers must do six very real things to make MMO games reach out to even more people: rethink monthly fees

    I believe monthly fees (or, at least, high fees like WoW's) are going to be the main stumbling block for the developing MMORPG market. If people are going to be paying for a game five times over in a single year, they're going to buy fewer games. Right now, I play WoW and it's the *only* thing I play because I want to get my money's worth out of it. Not many people will want to pay for three of four MMORPGs at $15/mo because the fees will simply be too high.

    Unless monthly fees are drastically reduced to a reasonable level -- say, $2/month (especially if you have to drop $50 up front) -- there will simply be less of a market for more than a handful of MMORPGs. There are not 6 billion more people ready and waiting for new MMORPGs to hit the market.

    Reasonable pricing models will ensure everyone gets a piece of the pie. Obscene pricing models will guarantee one or two major games will dominate the market. I don't know about you, but I would prefer more variety in my online gaming.

    --
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  6. *shrug* by ShadowsHawk · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I really couldn't care less about MMORPGs. I used to play MUD, but quit shortly after they started charging a monthly fee. I'm much happier playing single player games that I purchase for $20-30 as opposed to paying for the same game repeatedly.

  7. WOW on a console by agent86maxwellsmart · · Score: 3, Interesting

    For me, an accessible console rendition would get me to try one. Sitting in a chair for that many hours isn't something I'll trade my single player experience for. And no, FFXI on the 360 doesn't count...I would want something closer to Guild Wars, City of Heroes or WOW.

  8. Six? Make that Seven. by xplenumx · · Score: 5, Insightful
    MMORPGs simply aren't friendly to the casual player.

    Way back, when the dinosaurs still roamed the earth, I used to play muds religiously - Sanctuary, Armageddon, 3K, I loved them all. Lucky for me, my roommate failed out of college due to mudding, which caused me to take a hard long look at my life and come to the realization that while I wasn't failing, muds were certainly keeping me from excelling. I dropped them cold turkey, which was probably one of the best things I've ever done. I've always followed the MMORPG scene quite closely and have always wanted to get back into it (especially since I had a number of friends who played Everquest). Finally when WoW came out, I decided that I was at a good place in my life and career and, after a long talk with my wife, I bought the game. At first it was great - the quests didn't take too long, I could play an hour or two a night without any problems, and I had a great time. Unfortunately, I quickly got to a point that if I wanted to accomplish anything at all in the game, I'd have to sit down for a solid three to five hour stretch (sometimes for several days in a row depending on the raid dungeon). That simply isn't practical. Additionally, while I enjoyed the social element, you simply can't walk away at any time - to an extent the game dictates when you can quit. I finally quit WoW when it became clear that I'd never see the new content that was being released as all of it was catered to the hard core player.

    Is it possible to appeal to the casual player? I believe so. For example in Guildwars, you can hire henchmen which allow you to play by yourself when needed and still progress in the game. The MMOs out there demand that I work my schedule around them; instead I need the games to work around mine.

  9. Monthly Fees by Donniedarkness · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I honestly don't see why so many people get upset about these... they're getting their money's worth (NOTE: I don't play any MMORPG's, and never have)... I mean, updates for the MMORPG's are HUGE, sometimes adding all sorts of new content. On top of that, you've got GM's and such who keep an eye on the players and try to make sure no major cheating is going on. SOMEONE has to pay for those servers, and I'm sure that no one wants to pay > $100 for a computer game, up front.

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  10. The most Underrated MMORPG by AlltheCoolNamesGone · · Score: 2, Informative

    Eve Online. Sci-fi Space themed MMOG with no level/no grind, excellent player based market, balanced semi consentual pvp.

    You can do anything you want when you want without feeling like your falling behind.

    --
    M$ it's whats for diner!!!!!
  11. World of Warcraft enlarged the "pond" by AHumbleOpinion · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Are MMOs doomed to continue fishing from the same pond of players over and over?

    While World of Warcraft did take some players away from other MMOs it's success is also due to the fact that it significantly increased the number of MMO players. It made MMOs far more accessible, especially to casual players. In short, it grew that "pond". There is no reason to think that the pond cannot grow some more, it is just a matter of someone introducing something that non-MMO'ers would find a fun use of their time.

  12. Whoa, step back a bit. by Somatic · · Score: 3, Interesting
    EQ was the king for years with 400k subscribers, now WoW is with 4 million. Even though I only played WoW in beta and didn't find it interesting, I respect the numbers.

    But you have to ask yourself: how big do we need MMOGs to get? The movie Titanic broke box office records, but it was a steaming pile of shit.

    Wow has set the bar, and as far as I'm concerned, it's a good bar. It's a healthy bar. 4 million is a damn healthy bar. If you want to go more mass-market than that, you have to go into areas that don't appeal to me as a MMOG player.

    At some point, you have to say, "We're making enough money to satisfy our art", and leave it at that.

    I don't think I want to see the MMOG that attracts 1 billion subscribers.

    --
    My script don't crash! She crashes, you crashed her!
    1. Re:Whoa, step back a bit. by Bellum+Aeternus · · Score: 2, Informative
      This is in agreement with the parent post.

      Why don't people get it? Titanic the motherload of movies made something like $500M. WoW has 4M as a user base all paying around $15/month. Unless my math skills are really in the shitter, that's $60M/month or $720M/year. Given the life span of a MMP that beats the crap out of Titanic, or any Hollywood production any day. MMPs can make litterally billions of dollars if they play their cards right. Blizzard has, we can do the math when they shut down the last Realm.

      --
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    2. Re:Whoa, step back a bit. by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 2, Insightful

      This is why you may see the number of MMORPG's produced actually accellerate. The current crop is what you get when people invest hoping to be the next 400k superstar. Now that the bar is 10x that, expect more, and larger and more professional productions to come about.

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  13. The Grind is the problem. by JavaLord · · Score: 2, Insightful

    WoW is successful because for the first 30 levels you can accomplish something every time you log in. I realize that they follow the skinners box method of making things more difficult as you go along to keep you hooked, but I think MMORPG's will succeed when their gameplay (combat) is a compelling enough reason to play, rather than just grinding out for the next level/epic item.

  14. Re:So little advancement since UO... by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 2, Funny

    Because nothing creates the "Star Wars" feeling quite like killing llama-giraffes by the hundreds.

    Because nothing creates the "Star Wars" feeling quite like being issued a high tech blaster, then seeing it take dozens of shots to kill a god damned llama-giraffe.

    And you haven't lived until you've seen 8 guys standing around a single doggie thingie, 7 shooting it with various laser guns, and one dousing it with a FREEKIN' FLAMETHROWER, for thirty seconds, and the thing doesn't run screaming after the first one second, much less die after the first one second.

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