Prognosticating Sony's Downfall

Via Evil Avatar, an article on About.com theorizing Sony's defeat at the hands of Nintendo and Microsoft. An interesting piece of speculation. From the article: "Sony introduces the PS3, sporting far more powerful hardware than either alternative system, limited online system support, and a fairly solid launch line-up. Nintendo introduces the Revolution. At the same time that the Revolution and PS3 hit the store shelves, Microsoft reduces the price of the Xbox 360 and releases Halo 3. Halo 3, combined with the price reduction, effectively undercuts the momentum of the PS3 launch. Customers have to decide between the 360 with Halo 3, the PS3 with a potentially high price tag, and the Revolution, priced near current generation game consoles."

Comments

We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions

[BigDork1001]

Customers have to decide between the 360 with Halo 3, the PS3 with a potentially high price tag, and the Revolution, priced near current generation game consoles."

No, no, no no, no no. Customers don't have to decide between the three. They can choose more than one. I own all three (actually four, Dreamcast too) of this generations systems. Eventually I will own all three of the next gens too. There is no law that says I can only get one and I won't.

Not to mention that these predictions have little to no value. They are just predictions. People have predicted that Microsoft will flop. People predict that Nintendo will go the way of Sega. People have predicted that the world will end. It's just someone's opinion and while there's a chance it'll happen, whatever, there's a chance it won't too. We'll just have to wait and see.

Re:We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions

[harrkev]

No, no, no no, no no. Customers don't have to decide between the three. They can choose more than one. I own all three (actually four, Dreamcast too) of this generations systems. Eventually I will own all three of the next gens too. There is no law that says I can only get one and I won't.

You are every company's wet dream. Unfortunately, people like you are in the minority, and cannot support an entire industry for very long.

The average family has a lot of financial stress. Even affording one next-gen system would be tough. In the end, it might be a choice of the Revolution that you can afford, or the PS2 that you will have to save up for in time for next year's Christmas. As for me, I will likely pick up a Revolution after the first round of price cuts (probably a year after release). I do not see a 260 or PS3 in my future.

Insufficient

[dbhankins]

All this is not enough to ensure the PS3's failure. To make it complete, Sony needs to:

- Reduce or eliminate backwards compatibility, like the Silver Slimline PS2 but more so
- Implement nodelocking of game- and video-disks, using the technology they've recently secured a US patent on
- Make game development as difficult as possible and as different from conventional architectures as possible to reduce the number of game companies willing to crossdevelop for or port to the new system

Only then can they guarantee the PS3 will flop.

10 pages? bleh

[GoNINzo]

After 10 pages of extensive advertising, I see some problems, besides the about.com revenue stream.

1. Needs a much stronger outline form. I'm not the best writer in the world but that is a rambling article.
2. The handhelds are basically useless in this discussion, unless you talk about integration with the platforms. And I'm sure the market will accomidate whatever is popular.
3. The market has already seemed to have pushed the revolution out of the running as the 'next console'. But as long as they continue to make money on the hardware and the software, I'm sure they will continue to sell. It just won't be the 'it' console, which is okay with Nintendo.
4. It's not clear the market has the room for another console entry such as the ybox or ps3 or revolution, especialy if people keep making sequels for all the old generation machines.
5. I don't believe online will make/break this generations release, still. However, the download part might seriously help some platforms.
6. The consolidated control preferences and user details within the ybox series might seriously help them, as people are generally lazy. heh
7. Halo 3 is not the 'killer app' it used to be. Halo 2 didn't sell more xboxes.
8. The Revolution is not getting nearly the developer support that the PS3 or the ybox.
9. The PS3 will have exclusive titles that people will be willing to buy one for. And they are promising on release now, but we'll see.
10. I don't think the sony rootkit problem has much to do with their games division, really. And I doubt it will bankrupt them.
11. Backwards compatibility is still questionable on all three systems. Xbox 360 has 200 some titles they've announced, but how well they work and the requirements for a hard drive make it somewhat questionable. The others are questionable entirely. I think this will influence buyers, as it did when the PS2 came out.
12. The use of the multiple cores on the ybox and ps3 might be a total success on some software titles and a total bomb on others, it's an unknown and dependant upon the developers.
13. The prices of the hardware are pies in the sky, it's what they'd like to get near. And it's not completely clear if microsoft can drop the price of hardware, though they have the deepest pockets to do so. They won't let it get dreamcasted. (*sob*)
14. The launch of the ybox is not looking good currently, due to the restricted inventory and lack of revolutionary single platform games. However, microsoft will throw money to make it 'good', I'm sure.
15. I'm not without bias, but damn, you could at least pretend for a bit.

Anyway, I'm not convinced either way, it's still wait and see. With this subject matter, you'd be better off getting a random games.slashdot.org reader to come up with a comparison between the machines and the possible outcomes. Plus, you might not have to deal with 10 pages of ads.

Re:10 pages? bleh

[BigDork1001]

I'm just going to hit on a couple of these. I don't necessarily disagree with your post on a whole. I'm just bored at work and looking for conversation.

It just won't be the 'it' console, which is okay with Nintendo.
I think it's okay with Nintendo fans too. Not the fanboys but the fans. I'm okay with Nintendo not being number one. As long as they are cranking out good games what do I care if PS3 is outselling them?

Halo 3 is not the 'killer app' it used to be. Halo 2 didn't sell more xboxes.
True but Halo 2 came out after X-box was in a lot of homes. People who loved Halo didn't have to buy a new X-box to enjoy Halo 2. In order to enjoy Halo 3 they have to buy a 360. Halo and Halo 3 have more in common than Halo 2 and Halo 3. Halo 3 will definitely sell 360s.

The PS3 will have exclusive titles that people will be willing to buy one for. And they are promising on release now, but we'll see.
Revolution will have exclusive titles that people will be willing to buy one for too. SMB Melee, Mario Kart, Zelda, Metroid, these are going to be exclusive and they're going to sell systems. I agree that PS3 will sell systems for the same reason though.

The launch of the ybox is not looking good currently, due to the restricted inventory and lack of revolutionary single platform games. However, microsoft will throw money to make it 'good', I'm sure.
Lord knows they have enough money.

Anyway, I'm not convinced either way, it's still wait and see.
100% with you on this. :)

-BigD

Highly doubtful!

[ssand]

While online gaming is a large factor for the xbox, and is a nice feature, there are still quite a few gamers out there who don't go online with their consoles. Even though Sony won't have a fortifide online structure, that still does not mean that some games will have it. In addition to that, as an xbox owner I have never really seen any big titles for the Xbox. Sure there is Halo 3 for the 360 but At the rate Halo 2 was going, it won't be anything more than a good game. Many large titles that will be on the 360 like GTA or Burnout will be on the PS3 at the same time, if not before the 360.

Revolution

[CH0DE]

As everyone is talking about the next gen consoles the revolution is rarely mentioned. Is it because Nintendo isn't aiming to be the "it" system? I really think that a lot of us who go back several generations of consoles have a quiet respect for Nintendo and what they've done for console gaming. Not to mention you can almost always guarantee that Nintendo will sacrifice flashy graphics, blood and gore to make fun games. IMO that is the biggest downfall of sony and M$. Lots of games lots of explosions but not tons o' fun.

Re:PS3 = far more powerful hardware than 360?

[harrkev]

Gaaaa. Processing power again.

Processing power != fun
(or for you VHDL jocks, processing_power /= fun)
(or PERL, processing_power ne fun)

What really matters is the GAMEPLAY. A great game with fewer polygons is still a great game. A crappy game with more polygons is still a crappy game. This war will NOT be won or lost on technical specifications. It will be decided by the game quality, availability, and price. Period. In the end, that is what people look at.