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Sequels Turning Off Game Consumers
Next Generation reports that the constant trend towards game sequels is lowering interest among game consumers. From the article: "A weak consumer environment leaves us questioning whether sales will rebound sufficiently to drive growth for the full year. In particular, consumers appear to be indifferent to the proliferation of sequels, indicating a slow start to holiday sales and risk of continuing weakness." That, right there, is the problem with the PSP's library at the moment.
The plethora of sequals has nothing to do with any slumping sales. Keep in mind, kids -- your average, brainwashed-by-the-public-"education"-system consumer is actually more comfortable purchasing a product that is percieved as a "known quantity", rather than trying something new and different. Those of us who enjoy "new and different" are among the minority, and are atypical consumers.
Madden, Final Fantasy, ad infinitum will continue to sell in mass quantities, so long as the designers don't churn out pure and utter crap (ie. creating a game that even their long-time loyal fans would hate).
The "sequel" tag is deceptive. In most cases, it's used just to piggyback on the success of a previous title. I wouldn't call Civ 2, 3, or 4 sequels so much as "iterations". There's no ongoing storyline or plot between the titles. Same goes for sports games - Madden '06 is Madden '05 with a few tweaks and newer player rosters. The Final Fantasy series typically introduces new gameplay dynamics with each title, but sets them in totally different game worlds (at least until FFX-2). To me, the sequel tag indicates some sort of storyline continuity between the games, even if the gameplay isn't exactly the same.
By that definition, real sequels are a lot less common than iterations. Quake 4 and Doom 3 have a at least a passing relationship with previous games in the series, though in both cases I don't think the storyline continuity is a major selling point. Even Knights of the Old Republic II only pays lip service to the previous game. The Myst series, on the other hand, is very closely tied together, especially in the later games in the series where the events of previous games are tightly woven into the storylines.
It's all about marketing and sales. Publishers won't to release "Final Quest XII" if has so much tie-in to previous titles that it isn't accessible to someone new to the series. Even the hallowed Ultima series, which was very tight between 4 - 6, seemed to distance itself between titles towards the end, both in gameplay and storyline continuity.
Bottom line? I think "iterations" have more potential draw (Ooh, I liked NFL '05, and '06 is going to have *insert new favorite player here*!) and more potential drawbacks (Bleah, NFL '05 wasn't any better than '04, why would I buy '06?). Genuine sequels have to toe the line between too much continuity (scare away new customers) and not enough (turn off the loyal customers of the series). If that balance isn't just right, the sequel flops. All the publishers (_publishers_, not developers) really care about is what is going to sell, and iterative series are much safer investments. But maybe, just maybe, the general game-buying public might be starintg wise up to the fact that they've just bought the same thing for the 4th or 5th year in a row and realize it's time to start demanding more.
Nah, who am I kidding? Recent sales charts are all stacked with the latest Sims, Madden, Quake, Doom, and Battlefield titles and add-ons. Hell, I just picked up Sly 3 for PS2 and will probably pick up Dragon Quest VIII this weekend and FFXII whenever it comes out, too.
Give a man a beer and he wastes an hour. Teach a man to brew and he wastes a lifetime.